Temporal reasoning is a crucial NLP task, providing a nuanced understanding of time-sensitive contexts within textual data. Although recent advancements in LLMs have demonstrated their potential in temporal reasoning, the predominant focus has been on tasks such as temporal expression and temporal relation extraction. These tasks are primarily designed for the extraction of direct and past temporal cues and to engage in simple reasoning processes. A significant gap remains when considering complex reasoning tasks such as event forecasting, which requires multi-step temporal reasoning on events and prediction on the future timestamp. Another notable limitation of existing methods is their incapability to provide an illustration of their reasoning process, hindering explainability. In this paper, we introduce the first task of explainable temporal reasoning, to predict an event's occurrence at a future timestamp based on context which requires multiple reasoning over multiple events, and subsequently provide a clear explanation for their prediction. Our task offers a comprehensive evaluation of both the LLMs' complex temporal reasoning ability, the future event prediction ability, and explainability-a critical attribute for AI applications. To support this task, we present the first multi-source instruction-tuning dataset of explainable temporal reasoning (ExpTime) with 26k derived from the temporal knowledge graph datasets and their temporal reasoning paths, using a novel knowledge-graph-instructed-generation strategy. Based on the dataset, we propose the first open-source LLM series TimeLlaMA based on the foundation LlaMA2, with the ability of instruction following for explainable temporal reasoning. We compare the performance of our method and a variety of LLMs, where our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of temporal prediction and explanation.

Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) have shown promise for reasoning tasks by incorporating a temporal dimension to represent how facts evolve over time. However, existing TKG reasoning (TKGR) models lack explainability due to their black-box nature. Recent work has attempted to address this through customized model architectures that generate reasoning paths, but these recent approaches have limited generalizability and provide sparse explanatory output. To enable interpretability for most TKGR models, we propose GradXKG, a novel two-stage gradient-based approach for explaining Relational Graph Convolution Network (RGCN)-based TKGR models. First, a Grad-CAM-inspired RGCN explainer tracks gradients to quantify each node's contribution across timesteps in an efficient "explain-per-use" fashion. Second, an integrated gradients explainer consolidates importance scores for RGCN outputs, extending compatibility across diverse TKGR architectures based on RGCN. Together, the two explainers highlight the most critical nodes at each timestep for a given prediction. Our extensive experiments demonstrated that, by leveraging gradient information, GradXKG provides insightful explanations grounded in the model's logic in a timely manner for most RGCN-based TKGR models. This helps address the lack of interpretability in existing TKGR models and provides a universal explanation approach applicable across various models.

Recent years have witnessed much interest in temporal reasoning over knowledge graphs (KG) for complex question answering (QA), but there remains a substantial gap in human capabilities. We explore how to generalize relational graph convolutional networks (RGCN) for temporal KGQA. Specifically, we propose a novel, intuitive and interpretable scheme to modulate the messages passed through a KG edge during convolution, based on the relevance of its associated time period to the question. We also introduce a gating device to predict if the answer to a complex temporal question is likely to be a KG entity or time and use this prediction to guide our scoring mechanism. We evaluate the resulting system, which we call TwiRGCN, on TimeQuestions, a recently released, challenging dataset for multi-hop complex temporal QA. We show that TwiRGCN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art systems on this dataset across diverse question types. Notably, TwiRGCN improves accuracy by 9--10 percentage points for the most difficult ordinal and implicit question types.

Most knowledge graph completion (KGC) methods learn latent representations of entities and relations of a given graph by mapping them into a vector space. Although the majority of these methods focus on static knowledge graphs, a large number of publicly available KGs contain temporal information stating the time instant/period over which a certain fact has been true. Such graphs are often known as temporal knowledge graphs. Furthermore, knowledge graphs may also contain textual descriptions of entities and relations. Both temporal information and textual descriptions are not taken into account during representation learning by static KGC methods, and only structural information of the graph is leveraged. Recently, some studies have used temporal information to improve link prediction, yet they do not exploit textual descriptions and do not support inductive inference (prediction on entities that have not been seen in training). We propose a novel framework called TEMT that exploits the power of pre-trained language models (PLMs) for text-enhanced temporal knowledge graph completion. The knowledge stored in the parameters of a PLM allows TEMT to produce rich semantic representations of facts and to generalize on previously unseen entities. TEMT leverages textual and temporal information available in a KG, treats them separately, and fuses them to get plausibility scores of facts. Unlike previous approaches, TEMT effectively captures dependencies across different time points and enables predictions on unseen entities. To assess the performance of TEMT, we carried out several experiments including time interval prediction, both in transductive and inductive settings, and triple classification. The experimental results show that TEMT is competitive with the state-of-the-art.

Temporal characteristics are prominently evident in a substantial volume of knowledge, which underscores the pivotal role of Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) in both academia and industry. However, TKGs often suffer from incompleteness for three main reasons: the continuous emergence of new knowledge, the weakness of the algorithm for extracting structured information from unstructured data, and the lack of information in the source dataset. Thus, the task of Temporal Knowledge Graph Completion (TKGC) has attracted increasing attention, aiming to predict missing items based on the available information. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of TKGC methods and their details. Specifically, this paper mainly consists of three components, namely, 1)Background, which covers the preliminaries of TKGC methods, loss functions required for training, as well as the dataset and evaluation protocol; 2)Interpolation, that estimates and predicts the missing elements or set of elements through the relevant available information. It further categorizes related TKGC methods based on how to process temporal information; 3)Extrapolation, which typically focuses on continuous TKGs and predicts future events, and then classifies all extrapolation methods based on the algorithms they utilize. We further pinpoint the challenges and discuss future research directions of TKGC.

Question answering over temporal knowledge graphs (TKGQA) has recently found increasing interest. TKGQA requires temporal reasoning techniques to extract the relevant information from temporal knowledge bases. The only existing TKGQA dataset, i.e., CronQuestions, consists of temporal questions based on the facts from a fixed time period, where a temporal knowledge graph (TKG) spanning the same period can be fully used for answer inference, allowing the TKGQA models to use even the future knowledge to answer the questions based on the past facts. In real-world scenarios, however, it is also common that given the knowledge until now, we wish the TKGQA systems to answer the questions asking about the future. As humans constantly seek plans for the future, building TKGQA systems for answering such forecasting questions is important. Nevertheless, this has still been unexplored in previous research. In this paper, we propose a novel task: forecasting question answering over temporal knowledge graphs. We also propose a large-scale TKGQA benchmark dataset, i.e., ForecastTKGQuestions, for this task. It includes three types of questions, i.e., entity prediction, yes-no, and fact reasoning questions. For every forecasting question in our dataset, QA models can only have access to the TKG information before the timestamp annotated in the given question for answer inference. We find that the state-of-the-art TKGQA methods perform poorly on forecasting questions, and they are unable to answer yes-no questions and fact reasoning questions. To this end, we propose ForecastTKGQA, a TKGQA model that employs a TKG forecasting module for future inference, to answer all three types of questions. Experimental results show that ForecastTKGQA outperforms recent TKGQA methods on the entity prediction questions, and it also shows great effectiveness in answering the other two types of questions.

Temporal spike recognition plays a crucial role in various domains, including anomaly detection, keyword spotting and neuroscience. This paper presents a novel algorithm for efficient temporal spike pattern recognition on sparse event series data. The algorithm leverages a combination of reward-modulatory behavior, Hebbian and anti-Hebbian based learning methods to identify patterns in dynamic datasets with short intervals of training. The algorithm begins with a preprocessing step, where the input data is rationalized and translated to a feature-rich yet sparse spike time series data. Next, a linear feed forward spiking neural network processes this data to identify a trained pattern. Finally, the next layer performs a weighted check to ensure the correct pattern has been detected.To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm, it was trained on a complex dataset containing spoken digits with spike information and its output compared to state-of-the-art.

Stemming from traditional knowledge graphs (KGs), hyper-relational KGs (HKGs) provide additional key-value pairs (i.e., qualifiers) for each KG fact that help to better restrict the fact validity. In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in studying graph reasoning over HKGs. In the meantime, due to the ever-evolving nature of world knowledge, extensive parallel works have been focusing on reasoning over temporal KGs (TKGs), where each TKG fact can be viewed as a KG fact coupled with a timestamp (or time period) specifying its time validity. The existing HKG reasoning approaches do not consider temporal information because it is not explicitly specified in previous benchmark datasets. Besides, all the previous TKG reasoning methods only lay emphasis on temporal reasoning and have no way to learn from qualifiers. To this end, we aim to fill the gap between TKG reasoning and HKG reasoning. We develop two new benchmark hyper-relational TKG (HTKG) datasets, i.e., Wiki-hy and YAGO-hy, and propose a HTKG reasoning model that efficiently models both temporal facts and qualifiers. We further exploit additional time-invariant relational knowledge from the Wikidata knowledge base and study its effectiveness in HTKG reasoning. Time-invariant relational knowledge serves as the knowledge that remains unchanged in time (e.g., Sasha Obama is the child of Barack Obama), and it has never been fully explored in previous TKG reasoning benchmarks and approaches. Experimental results show that our model substantially outperforms previous related methods on HTKG link prediction and can be enhanced by jointly leveraging both temporal and time-invariant relational knowledge.

Reasoning about time is of fundamental importance. Many facts are time-dependent. For example, athletes change teams from time to time, and different government officials are elected periodically. Previous time-dependent question answering (QA) datasets tend to be biased in either their coverage of time spans or question types. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive probing dataset \tempreason to evaluate the temporal reasoning capability of large language models. Our dataset includes questions of three temporal reasoning levels. In addition, we also propose a novel learning framework to improve the temporal reasoning capability of large language models, based on temporal span extraction and time-sensitive reinforcement learning. We conducted experiments in closed book QA, open book QA, and reasoning QA settings and demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and data are released on https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/TempReason.

Temporal knowledge graph completion (TKGC) aims to predict the missing links among the entities in a temporal knwoledge graph (TKG). Most previous TKGC methods only consider predicting the missing links among the entities seen in the training set, while they are unable to achieve great performance in link prediction concerning newly-emerged unseen entities. Recently, a new task, i.e., TKG few-shot out-of-graph (OOG) link prediction, is proposed, where TKGC models are required to achieve great link prediction performance concerning newly-emerged entities that only have few-shot observed examples. In this work, we propose a TKGC method FITCARL that combines few-shot learning with reinforcement learning to solve this task. In FITCARL, an agent traverses through the whole TKG to search for the prediction answer. A policy network is designed to guide the search process based on the traversed path. To better address the data scarcity problem in the few-shot setting, we introduce a module that computes the confidence of each candidate action and integrate it into the policy for action selection. We also exploit the entity concept information with a novel concept regularizer to boost model performance. Experimental results show that FITCARL achieves stat-of-the-art performance on TKG few-shot OOG link prediction.