Machine learning algorithms find frequent application in spatial prediction of biotic and abiotic environmental variables. However, the characteristics of spatial data, especially spatial autocorrelation, are widely ignored. We hypothesize that this is problematic and results in models that can reproduce training data but are unable to make spatial predictions beyond the locations of the training samples. We assume that not only spatial validation strategies but also spatial variable selection is essential for reliable spatial predictions. We introduce two case studies that use remote sensing to predict land cover and the leaf area index for the "Marburg Open Forest", an open research and education site of Marburg University, Germany. We use the machine learning algorithm Random Forests to train models using non-spatial and spatial cross-validation strategies to understand how spatial variable selection affects the predictions. Our findings confirm that spatial cross-validation is essential in preventing overoptimistic model performance. We further show that highly autocorrelated predictors (such as geolocation variables, e.g. latitude, longitude) can lead to considerable overfitting and result in models that can reproduce the training data but fail in making spatial predictions. The problem becomes apparent in the visual assessment of the spatial predictions that show clear artefacts that can be traced back to a misinterpretation of the spatially autocorrelated predictors by the algorithm. Spatial variable selection could automatically detect and remove such variables that lead to overfitting, resulting in reliable spatial prediction patterns and improved statistical spatial model performance. We conclude that in addition to spatial validation, a spatial variable selection must be considered in spatial predictions of ecological data to produce reliable predictions.

We present an approach to estimate the severity of traffic related accidents in aggregated (area-level) and disaggregated (point level) data. Exploring spatial features, we measure complexity of road networks using several area level variables. Also using temporal and other situational features from open data for New York City, we use Gradient Boosting models for inference and measuring feature importance along with Gaussian Processes to model spatial dependencies in the data. The results show significant importance of complexity in aggregated model as well as as other features in prediction which may be helpful in framing policies and targeting interventions for preventing severe traffic related accidents and injuries.

Kulldorff's (1997) seminal paper on spatial scan statistics (SSS) has led to many methods considering different regions of interest, different statistical models, and different approximations while also having numerous applications in epidemiology, environmental monitoring, and homeland security. SSS provides a way to rigorously test for the existence of an anomaly and provide statistical guarantees as to how "anomalous" that anomaly is. However, these methods rely on defining specific regions where the spatial information a point contributes is limited to binary 0 or 1, of either inside or outside the region, while in reality anomalies will tend to follow smooth distributions with decaying density further from an epicenter. In this work, we propose a method that addresses this shortcoming through a continuous scan statistic that generalizes SSS by allowing the point contribution to be defined by a kernel. We provide extensive experimental and theoretical results that shows our methods can be computed efficiently while providing high statistical power for detecting anomalous regions.

Persistent homology analysis provides means to capture the connectivity structure of data sets in various dimensions. On the mathematical level, by defining a metric between the objects that persistence attaches to data sets, we can stabilize invariants characterizing these objects. We outline how so called contour functions induce relevant metrics for stabilizing the rank invariant. On the practical level, the stable ranks are used as fingerprints for data. Different choices of contour lead to different stable ranks and the topological learning is then the question of finding the optimal contour. We outline our analysis pipeline and show how it can enhance classification of physical activities data. As our main application we study how stable ranks and contours provide robust descriptors of spatial patterns of atmospheric cloud fields.

Despite its omnipresence in robotics application, the nature of spatial knowledge and the mechanisms that underlie its emergence in autonomous agents are still poorly understood. Recent theoretical works suggest that the Euclidean structure of space induces invariants in an agent's raw sensorimotor experience. We hypothesize that capturing these invariants is beneficial for sensorimotor prediction and that, under certain exploratory conditions, a motor representation capturing the structure of the external space should emerge as a byproduct of learning to predict future sensory experiences. We propose a simple sensorimotor predictive scheme, apply it to different agents and types of exploration, and evaluate the pertinence of these hypotheses. We show that a naive agent can capture the topology and metric regularity of its sensor's position in an egocentric spatial frame without any a priori knowledge, nor extraneous supervision.

This is the third article of a three-part series of articles in Getting started Geographic Data Science with Python. You will learn about reading, manipulating and analysing Geographic data in Python. The third part, which is this article, covers a relevant and real-world project wrapping up to cement your learning. Learning Objectives for this case study are: 1. Apply spatial operations on real word dataset project 2. Spatial join and munging Geographic data. In this project, we will use two datasets: a population dataset disaggregated by age and preschools dataset from Statistics Sweden.

In this paper, we aim to recover the 3D human pose from 2D body joints of a single image. The major challenge in this task is the depth ambiguity since different 3D poses may produce similar 2D poses. Although many recent advances in this problem are found in both unsupervised and supervised learning approaches, the performances of most of these approaches are greatly affected by insufficient diversities and richness of training data. To alleviate this issue, we propose an unsupervised learning approach, which is capable of estimating various complex poses well under limited available training data. Specifically, we propose a Shape Decomposition Model (SDM) in which a 3D pose is considered as the superposition of two parts which are global structure together with some deformations. Based on SDM, we estimate these two parts explicitly by solving two sets of different distributed combination coefficients of geometric priors. In addition, to obtain geometric priors, a joint dictionary learning algorithm is proposed to extract both coarse and fine pose clues simultaneously from limited training data. Quantitative evaluations on several widely used datasets demonstrate that our approach yields better performances over other competitive approaches. Especially, on some categories with more complex deformations, significant improvements are achieved by our approach. Furthermore, qualitative experiments conducted on in-the-wild images also show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Graph convolution network based approaches have been recently used to model region-wise relationships in region-level prediction problems in urban computing. Each relationship represents a kind of spatial dependency, like region-wise distance or functional similarity. To incorporate multiple relationships into spatial feature extraction, we define the problem as a multi-modal machine learning problem on multi-graph convolution networks. Leveraging the advantage of multi-modal machine learning, we propose to develop modality interaction mechanisms for this problem, in order to reduce generalization error by reinforcing the learning of multimodal coordinated representations. In this work, we propose two interaction techniques for handling features in lower layers and higher layers respectively. In lower layers, we propose grouped GCN to combine the graph connectivity from different modalities for more complete spatial feature extraction. In higher layers, we adapt multi-linear relationship networks to GCN by exploring the dimension transformation and freezing part of the covariance structure. The adapted approach, called multi-linear relationship GCN, learns more generalized features to overcome the train-test divergence induced by time shifting. We evaluated our model on ridehailing demand forecasting problem using two real-world datasets. The proposed technique outperforms state-of-the art baselines in terms of prediction accuracy, training efficiency, interpretability and model robustness.

Multi-step passenger demand forecasting is a crucial task in on-demand vehicle sharing services. However, predicting passenger demand over multiple time horizons is generally challenging due to the nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies. In this work, we propose to model multi-step citywide passenger demand prediction based on a graph and use a hierarchical graph convolutional structure to capture both spatial and temporal correlations simultaneously. Our model consists of three parts: 1) a long-term encoder to encode historical passenger demands; 2) a short-term encoder to derive the next-step prediction for generating multi-step prediction; 3) an attention-based output module to model the dynamic temporal and channel-wise information. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that our model consistently outperforms many baseline methods and state-of-the-art models.

State-of-the-art deep learning methods have shown a remarkable capacity to model complex data domains, but struggle with geospatial data. In this paper, we introduce SpaceGAN, a novel generative model for geospatial domains that learns neighbourhood structures through spatial conditioning. We propose to enhance spatial representation beyond mere spatial coordinates, by conditioning each data point on feature vectors of its spatial neighbours, thus allowing for a more flexible representation of the spatial structure. To overcome issues of training convergence, we employ a metric capturing the loss in local spatial autocorrelation between real and generated data as stopping criterion for SpaceGAN parametrization. This way, we ensure that the generator produces synthetic samples faithful to the spatial patterns observed in the input. SpaceGAN is successfully applied for data augmentation and outperforms compared to other methods of synthetic spatial data generation. Finally, we propose an ensemble learning framework for the geospatial domain, taking augmented SpaceGAN samples as training data for a set of ensemble learners. We empirically show the superiority of this approach over conventional ensemble learning approaches and rivaling spatial data augmentation methods, using synthetic and real-world prediction tasks. Our findings suggest that SpaceGAN can be used as a tool for (1) artificially inflating sparse geospatial data and (2) improving generalization of geospatial models.