This paper examines a number of solution methods for decision processes with non-Markovian rewards (NMRDPs). They all exploit a temporal logic specification of the reward function to automatically translate the NMRDP into an equivalent Markov decision process (MDP) amenable to well-known MDP solution methods. They differ however in the representation of the target MDP and the class of MDP solution methods to which they are suited. As a result, they adopt different temporal logics and different translations. Unfortunately, no implementation of these methods nor experimental let alone comparative results have ever been reported. This paper is the first step towards filling this gap. We describe an integrated system for solving NMRDPs which implements these methods and several variants under a common interface; we use it to compare the various approaches and identify the problem features favoring one over the other.

We analyze a new property of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), called layerwidth, arising from a class of DAGs proposed by Eiter and Lukasiewicz. This class of DAGs permits certain problems of structural model-based causality and explanation to be tractably solved. In this paper, we first address an open question raised by Eiter and Lukasiewicz - the computational complexity of deciding whether a given graph has a bounded layerwidth. After proving that this problem is NP-complete, we proceed by proving numerous important properties of layerwidth that are helpful in efficiently computing the optimal layerwidth. Finally, we compare this new DAG property to two other important DAG properties: treewidth and bandwidth.

Backtracking search is a powerful algorithmic paradigm that can be used to solve many problems. It is in a certain sense the dual of variable elimination; but on many problems, e.g., SAT, it is vastly superior to variable elimination in practice. Motivated by this we investigate the application of backtracking search to the problem of Bayesian inference (Bayes). We show that natural generalizations of known techniques allow backtracking search to achieve performance guarantees similar to standard algorithms for Bayes, and that there exist problems on which backtracking can in fact do much better. We also demonstrate that these ideas can be applied to implement a Bayesian inference engine whose performance is competitive with standard algorithms. Since backtracking search can very naturally take advantage of context specific structure, the potential exists for performance superior to standard algorithms on many problems.

Inferences in directed acyclic graphs associated with probability sets and probability intervals are NP-hard, even for polytrees. In this paper we focus on such inferences, and propose: 1) a substantial improvement on Tessems A / R algorithm FOR polytrees WITH probability intervals; 2) a new algorithm FOR direction - based local search(IN sets OF probability) that improves ON existing methods; 3) a collection OF branch - AND - bound algorithms that combine the previous techniques.The first two techniques lead TO approximate solutions, WHILE branch - AND - bound procedures can produce either exact OR approximate solutions.We report ON dramatic improvements ON existing techniques FOR inference WITH probability sets AND intervals, IN SOME cases reducing the computational effort BY many orders OF magnitude.

Many latent (factorized) models have been proposed for recommendation tasks like collaborative filtering and for ranking tasks like document or image retrieval and annotation. Common to all those methods is that during inference the items are scored independently by their similarity to the query in the latent embedding space. The structure of the ranked list (i.e. considering the set of items returned as a whole) is not taken into account. This can be a problem because the set of top predictions can be either too diverse (contain results that contradict each other) or are not diverse enough. In this paper we introduce a method for learning latent structured rankings that improves over existing methods by providing the right blend of predictions at the top of the ranked list. Particular emphasis is put on making this method scalable. Empirical results on large scale image annotation and music recommendation tasks show improvements over existing approaches.

Dual decomposition provides a tractable framework for designing algorithms for finding the most probable (MAP) configuration in graphical models. However, for many real-world inference problems, the typical decomposition has a large integrality gap, due to frustrated cycles. One way to tighten the relaxation is to introduce additional constraints that explicitly enforce cycle consistency. Earlier work showed that cluster-pursuit algorithms, which iteratively introduce cycle and other higherorder consistency constraints, allows one to exactly solve many hard inference problems. However, these algorithms explicitly enumerate a candidate set of clusters, limiting them to triplets or other short cycles. We solve the search problem for cycle constraints, giving a nearly linear time algorithm for finding the most frustrated cycle of arbitrary length. We show how to use this search algorithm together with the dual decomposition framework and clusterpursuit. The new algorithm exactly solves MAP inference problems arising from relational classification and stereo vision.

Recent developments in fitness landscape analysis include the study of Local Optima Networks (LON) and applications of the Elementary Landscapes theory. This paper represents a first step at combining these two tools to explore their ability to forecast the performance of search algorithms. We base our analysis on the Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP) and conduct a large statistical study over 600 generated instances of different types. Our results reveal interesting links between the network measures, the autocorrelation measures and the performance of heuristic search algorithms.

Local Optima Networks (LONs) have been recently proposed as an alternative model of combinatorial fitness landscapes. The model compresses the information given by the whole search space into a smaller mathematical object that is the graph having as vertices the local optima and as edges the possible weighted transitions between them. A new set of metrics can be derived from this model that capture the distribution and connectivity of the local optima in the underlying configuration space. This paper departs from the descriptive analysis of local optima networks, and actively studies the correlation between network features and the performance of a local search heuristic. The NK family of landscapes and the Iterated Local Search metaheuristic are considered. With a statistically-sound approach based on multiple linear regression, it is shown that some LONs' features strongly influence and can even partly predict the performance of a heuristic search algorithm. This study validates the expressive power of LONs as a model of combinatorial fitness landscapes.

NICTA is Australia's Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Centre of Excellence. It is the largest organization in Australia dedicated to ICT research. While it has close links with local universities, it is in fact an independent but not-for-profit company in the business of doing research, commercializing that research and training PhD students to do that research. Much of the work taking place at NICTA involves various topics in artificial intelligence. In this article, we survey some of the AI work being undertaken at NICTA.

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is an online planning algorithm that combines the ideas of best-first tree search and Monte-Carlo evaluation. Since MCTS is based on sampling, it does not require a transition function in explicit form, but only a generative model of the domain. Because it grows a highly selective search tree guided by its samples, it can handle huge search spaces with large branching factors. By using Monte-Carlo playouts, MCTS can take long-term rewards into account even with distant horizons. Combined with multi-armed bandit algorithms to trade off exploration and exploitation, MCTS has been shown to guarantee asymptotic convergence to the optimal policy, while providing approximations when stopped at any time. The relatively new MCTS approach has started a revolution in computer Go. Furthermore, it has achieved considerable success in domains as diverse as the games of Hex, Amazons, LOA, and Ms. Pacman; in General Game Playing, planning, and optimization. Whereas the focus of previous MCTS research has been on the practical application, current research begins to address the problem of understanding the nature, the underlying principles, of MCTS. A careful understanding of MCTS will lead to more effective search algorithms. Hence, my two interrelated research questions are: How can we formulate models that increase our understanding of how MCTS works? and How can we use the developed understanding to create effective search algorithms? This research summary describes the first steps I undertook in these directions, as well as my plans for future work.