We introduce two novel tree search algorithms that use a policy to guide search. The first algorithm is a best-first enumeration that uses a cost function that allows us to provide an upper bound on the number of nodes to be expanded before reaching a goal state. We show that this best-first algorithm is particularly well suited for needle-in-a-haystack'' problems. The second algorithm, which is based on sampling, provides an upper bound on the expected number of nodes to be expanded before reaching a set of goal states. We show that this algorithm is better suited for problems where many paths lead to a goal.

We consider an adversarial formulation of the problem ofpredicting a time series with square loss. The aim is to predictan arbitrary sequence of vectors almost as well as the bestsmooth comparator sequence in retrospect. Our approach allowsnatural measures of smoothness such as the squared norm ofincrements. More generally, we consider a linear time seriesmodel and penalize the comparator sequence through the energy ofthe implied driving noise terms. We derive the minimax strategyfor all problems of this type and show that it can be implementedefficiently.

We analyze the Kozachenko–Leonenko (KL) fixed k-nearest neighbor estimator for the differential entropy. We obtain the first uniform upper bound on its performance for any fixed k over H\"{o}lder balls on a torus without assuming any conditions on how close the density could be from zero. Accompanying a recent minimax lower bound over the H\"{o}lder ball, we show that the KL estimator for any fixed k is achieving the minimax rates up to logarithmic factors without cognizance of the smoothness parameter s of the H\"{o}lder ball for $s \in (0,2]$ and arbitrary dimension d, rendering it the first estimator that provably satisfies this property. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We consider online prediction problems where the loss between the prediction and the outcome is measured by the squared Euclidean distance and its generalization, the squared Mahalanobis distance. We derive the minimax solutions for the case where the prediction and action spaces are the simplex (this setup is sometimes called the Brier game) and the $\ell_2$ ball (this setup is related to Gaussian density estimation). We show that in both cases the value of each sub-game is a quadratic function of a simple statistic of the state, with coefficients that can be efficiently computed using an explicit recurrence relation. The resulting deterministic minimax strategy and randomized maximin strategy are linear functions of the statistic. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We study minimax strategies for the online prediction problem with expert advice. It has been conjectured that a simple adversary strategy, called COMB, is near optimal in this game for any number of experts. Our results and new insights make progress in this direction by showing that, up to a small additive term, COMB is minimax optimal in the finite-time three expert problem. In addition, we provide for this setting a new near minimax optimal COMB-based learner. Prior to this work, in this problem, learners obtaining the optimal multiplicative constant in their regret rate were known only when $K 2$ or $K\rightarrow\infty$.

We consider the challenging practical problem of optimizing the power production of a complex of hydroelectric power plants, which involves control over three continuous action variables, uncertainty in the amount of water inflows and a variety of constraints that need to be satisfied. We propose a policy-search-based approach coupled with predictive modelling to address this problem. This approach has some key advantages compared to other alternatives, such as dynamic programming: the policy representation and search algorithm can conveniently incorporate domain knowledge; the resulting policies are easy to interpret, and the algorithm is naturally parallelizable. Our algorithm obtains a policy which outperforms the solution found by dynamic programming both quantitatively and qualitatively. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

In this paper we investigate the computational complexity of learning the graph structure underlying a discrete undirected graphical model from i.i.d. Our first result is an unconditional computational lower bound of $\Omega (p {d/2})$ for learning general graphical models on $p$ nodes of maximum degree $d$, for the class of statistical algorithms recently introduced by Feldman et al. The construction is related to the notoriously difficult learning parities with noise problem in computational learning theory. Our lower bound shows that the $\widetilde O(p {d 2})$ runtime required by Bresler, Mossel, and Sly's exhaustive-search algorithm cannot be significantly improved without restricting the class of models. Aside from structural assumptions on the graph such as it being a tree, hypertree, tree-like, etc., most recent papers on structure learning assume that the model has the correlation decay property.

Most work on sequential learning assumes a fixed set of actions that are available all the time. However, in practice, actions can consist of picking subsets of readings from sensors that may break from time to time, road segments that can be blocked or goods that are out of stock. In this paper we study learning algorithms that are able to deal with stochastic availability of such unreliable composite actions. We propose and analyze algorithms based on the Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader prediction method for several learning settings differing in the feedback provided to the learner. Our algorithms rely on a novel loss estimation technique that we call Counting Asleep Times.

Several problems such as network intrusion, community detection, and disease outbreak can be described by observations attributed to nodes or edges of a graph. In these applications presence of intrusion, community or disease outbreak is characterized by novel observations on some unknown connected subgraph. These problems can be formulated in terms of optimization of suitable objectives on connected subgraphs, a problem which is generally computationally difficult. We overcome the combinatorics of connectivity by embedding connected subgraphs into linear matrix inequalities (LMI). Computationally efficient tests are then realized by optimizing convex objective functions subject to these LMI constraints.

We show that several online combinatorial optimization problems that admit efficient no-regret algorithms become computationally hard in the sleeping setting where a subset of actions becomes unavailable in each round. Specifically, we show that the sleeping versions of these problems are at least as hard as PAC learning DNF expressions, a long standing open problem. We show hardness for the sleeping versions of Online Shortest Paths, Online Minimum Spanning Tree, Online k-Subsets, Online k-Truncated Permutations, Online Minimum Cut, and Online Bipartite Matching. The hardness result for the sleeping version of the Online Shortest Paths problem resolves an open problem presented at COLT 2015 [Koolen et al., 2015]. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.