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Optimizing Energy Production Using Policy Search and Predictive State Representations

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the challenging practical problem of optimizing the power production of a complex of hydroelectric power plants, which involves control over three continuous action variables, uncertainty in the amount of water inflows and a variety of constraints that need to be satisfied. We propose a policy-search-based approach coupled with predictive modelling to address this problem. This approach has some key advantages compared to other alternatives, such as dynamic programming: the policy representation and search algorithm can conveniently incorporate domain knowledge; the resulting policies are easy to interpret, and the algorithm is naturally parallelizable. Our algorithm obtains a policy which outperforms the solution found by dynamic programming both quantitatively and qualitatively. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


Structure learning of antiferromagnetic Ising models

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper we investigate the computational complexity of learning the graph structure underlying a discrete undirected graphical model from i.i.d. Our first result is an unconditional computational lower bound of $\Omega (p {d/2})$ for learning general graphical models on $p$ nodes of maximum degree $d$, for the class of statistical algorithms recently introduced by Feldman et al. The construction is related to the notoriously difficult learning parities with noise problem in computational learning theory. Our lower bound shows that the $\widetilde O(p {d 2})$ runtime required by Bresler, Mossel, and Sly's exhaustive-search algorithm cannot be significantly improved without restricting the class of models. Aside from structural assumptions on the graph such as it being a tree, hypertree, tree-like, etc., most recent papers on structure learning assume that the model has the correlation decay property.


Online combinatorial optimization with stochastic decision sets and adversarial losses

Neural Information Processing Systems

Most work on sequential learning assumes a fixed set of actions that are available all the time. However, in practice, actions can consist of picking subsets of readings from sensors that may break from time to time, road segments that can be blocked or goods that are out of stock. In this paper we study learning algorithms that are able to deal with stochastic availability of such unreliable composite actions. We propose and analyze algorithms based on the Follow-The-Perturbed-Leader prediction method for several learning settings differing in the feedback provided to the learner. Our algorithms rely on a novel loss estimation technique that we call Counting Asleep Times.


Efficient Minimax Signal Detection on Graphs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Several problems such as network intrusion, community detection, and disease outbreak can be described by observations attributed to nodes or edges of a graph. In these applications presence of intrusion, community or disease outbreak is characterized by novel observations on some unknown connected subgraph. These problems can be formulated in terms of optimization of suitable objectives on connected subgraphs, a problem which is generally computationally difficult. We overcome the combinatorics of connectivity by embedding connected subgraphs into linear matrix inequalities (LMI). Computationally efficient tests are then realized by optimizing convex objective functions subject to these LMI constraints.


Hardness of Online Sleeping Combinatorial Optimization Problems

Neural Information Processing Systems

We show that several online combinatorial optimization problems that admit efficient no-regret algorithms become computationally hard in the sleeping setting where a subset of actions becomes unavailable in each round. Specifically, we show that the sleeping versions of these problems are at least as hard as PAC learning DNF expressions, a long standing open problem. We show hardness for the sleeping versions of Online Shortest Paths, Online Minimum Spanning Tree, Online k-Subsets, Online k-Truncated Permutations, Online Minimum Cut, and Online Bipartite Matching. The hardness result for the sleeping version of the Online Shortest Paths problem resolves an open problem presented at COLT 2015 [Koolen et al., 2015]. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


Minimax Estimation of Maximum Mean Discrepancy with Radial Kernels

Neural Information Processing Systems

Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is a distance on the space of probability measures which has found numerous applications in machine learning and nonparametric testing. This distance is based on the notion of embedding probabilities in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. In this paper, we present the first known lower bounds for the estimation of MMD based on finite samples. Our lower bounds hold for any radial universal kernel on $\R d$ and match the existing upper bounds up to constants that depend only on the properties of the kernel. Using these lower bounds, we establish the minimax rate optimality of the empirical estimator and its $U$-statistic variant, which are usually employed in applications.


A Smoothed Analysis of the Greedy Algorithm for the Linear Contextual Bandit Problem

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bandit learning is characterized by the tension between long-term exploration and short-term exploitation. However, as has recently been noted, in settings in which the choices of the learning algorithm correspond to important decisions about individual people (such as criminal recidivism prediction, lending, and sequential drug trials), exploration corresponds to explicitly sacrificing the well-being of one individual for the potential future benefit of others. In such settings, one might like to run a greedy'' algorithm, which always makes the optimal decision for the individuals at hand --- but doing this can result in a catastrophic failure to learn. In this paper, we consider the linear contextual bandit problem and revisit the performance of the greedy algorithm. We give a smoothed analysis, showing that even when contexts may be chosen by an adversary, small perturbations of the adversary's choices suffice for the algorithm to achieve no regret'', perhaps (depending on the specifics of the setting) with a constant amount of initial training data.


SubmodBoxes: Near-Optimal Search for a Set of Diverse Object Proposals

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper formulates the search for a set of bounding boxes (as needed in object proposal generation) as a monotone submodular maximization problem over the space of all possible bounding boxes in an image. Since the number of possible bounding boxes in an image is very large $O(#pixels 2)$, even a single linear scan to perform the greedy augmentation for submodular maximization is intractable. Thus, we formulate the greedy augmentation step as a Branch-and-Bound scheme. In order to speed up repeated application of B\&B, we propose a novel generalization of Minoux's'lazy greedy' algorithm to the B\&B tree. Theoretically, our proposed formulation provides a new understanding to the problem, and contains classic heuristic approaches such as Sliding Window Non-Maximal Suppression (NMS) and and Efficient Subwindow Search (ESS) as special cases. Empirically, we show that our approach leads to a state-of-art performance on object proposal generation via a novel diversity measure.


Simple random search of static linear policies is competitive for reinforcement learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Model-free reinforcement learning aims to offer off-the-shelf solutions for controlling dynamical systems without requiring models of the system dynamics. We introduce a model-free random search algorithm for training static, linear policies for continuous control problems. Common evaluation methodology shows that our method matches state-of-the-art sample efficiency on the benchmark MuJoCo locomotion tasks. Nonetheless, more rigorous evaluation reveals that the assessment of performance on these benchmarks is optimistic. We evaluate the performance of our method over hundreds of random seeds and many different hyperparameter configurations for each benchmark task.


Bounding the Cost of Search-Based Lifted Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recently, there has been growing interest in systematic search-based and importance sampling-based lifted inference algorithms for statistical relational models (SRMs). These lifted algorithms achieve significant complexity reductions over their propositional counterparts by using lifting rules that leverage symmetries in the relational representation. One drawback of these algorithms is that they use an inference-blind representation of the search space, which makes it difficult to efficiently pre-compute tight upper bounds on the exact cost of inference without running the algorithm to completion. In this paper, we present a principled approach to address this problem. We introduce a lifted analogue of the propositional And/Or search space framework, which we call a lifted And/Or schematic.