The continuing rise in the number of problems amenable to machine learning solutions, coupled with simultaneous growth in both computing power and variety of machine learning techniques has led to an explosion of interest in automated machine learning (AutoML). This paper presents Ensemble Squared (Ensemble$^2$), a "meta" AutoML system that ensembles at the level of AutoML systems. Ensemble$^2$ exploits the diversity of existing, competing AutoML systems by ensembling the top-performing models simultaneously generated by a set of them. Our work shows that diversity in AutoML systems is sufficient to justify ensembling at the AutoML system level. In demonstrating this, we also establish a new state of the art AutoML result on the OpenML classification challenge.

The parameters for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) often cannot be specified exactly. Uncertain MDPs (UMDPs) capture this model ambiguity by defining sets which the parameters belong to. Minimax regret has been proposed as an objective for planning in UMDPs to find robust policies which are not overly conservative. In this work, we focus on planning for Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) UMDPs with uncertain cost and transition functions. We introduce a Bellman equation to compute the regret for a policy. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm that utilises the regret Bellman equation, and show that it optimises minimax regret exactly for UMDPs with independent uncertainties. For coupled uncertainties, we extend our approach to use options to enable a trade off between computation and solution quality. We evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real-world domains, showing that it significantly outperforms existing baselines.

"Robot design is still a very manual process. RoboGrammar is a way to come up with new, more inventive robot designs." The way humans move effortlessly can obscure them of the complex motions of the joints and limbs. One would be shocked if they were to build a robot considering all the degrees of freedom, the weight of the payload, 3D geometry and more. The sophisticated designs of robots have been more or less the same.

Can we infer all the failed components of an infrastructure network, given a sample of reachable nodes from supply nodes? One of the most critical post-disruption processes after a natural disaster is to quickly determine the damage or failure states of critical infrastructure components. However, this is non-trivial, considering that often only a fraction of components may be accessible or observable after a disruptive event. Past work has looked into inferring failed components given point probes, i.e. with a direct sample of failed components. In contrast, we study the harder problem of inferring failed components given partial information of some `serviceable' reachable nodes and a small sample of point probes, being the first often more practical to obtain. We formulate this novel problem using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, and then present a greedy algorithm that minimizes MDL cost effectively. We evaluate our algorithm on domain-expert simulations of real networks in the aftermath of an earthquake. Our algorithm successfully identify failed components, especially the critical ones affecting the overall system performance.

In the machine learning algorithms, the choice of the hyperparameter is often an art more than a science, requiring labor-intensive search with expert experience. Therefore, automation on hyperparameter optimization to exclude human intervention is a great appeal, especially for the black-box functions. Recently, there have been increasing demands of solving such concealed tasks for better generalization, though the task-dependent issue is not easy to solve. The Black-Box Optimization challenge (NeurIPS 2020) required competitors to build a robust black-box optimizer across different domains of standard machine learning problems. This paper describes the approach of team KAIST OSI in a step-wise manner, which outperforms the baseline algorithms by up to +20.39%. We first strengthen the local Bayesian search under the concept of region reliability. Then, we design a combinatorial kernel for a Gaussian process kernel. In a similar vein, we combine the methodology of Bayesian and multi-armed bandit,(MAB) approach to select the values with the consideration of the variable types; the real and integer variables are with Bayesian, while the boolean and categorical variables are with MAB. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our method outperforms the existing methods across different tasks.

Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical systems that operate over a sequence of time steps, such as aircraft collision avoidance systems and autonomous cars. In many applications such as autonomous driving, failures cannot be completely eliminated due to the complex stochastic environment in which the system operates. As a result, safety validation is not only concerned about whether a failure can occur, but also discovering which failures are most likely to occur. This article presents adaptive stress testing (AST), a framework for finding the most likely path to a failure event in simulation. We consider a general black box setting for partially observable and continuous-valued systems operating in an environment with stochastic disturbances. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use reinforcement learning to optimize it. The approach is simulation-based and does not require internal knowledge of the system, making it suitable for black-box testing of large systems. We present different formulations depending on whether the state is fully observable or partially observable. In the latter case, we present a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that only requires access to the pseudorandom number generator of the simulator to overcome partial observability. We also present an extension of the framework, called differential adaptive stress testing (DAST), that can find failures that occur in one system but not in another. This type of differential analysis is useful in applications such as regression testing, where we are concerned with finding areas of relative weakness compared to a baseline. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an aircraft collision avoidance application, where a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system is stress tested to find the most likely scenarios of near mid-air collision.

We study the clustering of bipartite graphs and Boolean matrix factorization in data streams. We consider a streaming setting in which the vertices from the left side of the graph arrive one by one together with all of their incident edges. We provide an algorithm that, after one pass over the stream, recovers the set of clusters on the right side of the graph using sublinear space; to the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm with this property. We also show that after a second pass over the stream, the left clusters of the bipartite graph can be recovered and we show how to extend our algorithm to solve the Boolean matrix factorization problem (by exploiting the correspondence of Boolean matrices and bipartite graphs). We evaluate an implementation of the algorithm on synthetic data and on real-world data. On real-world datasets the algorithm is orders of magnitudes faster than a static baseline algorithm while providing quality results within a factor 2 of the baseline algorithm. Our algorithm scales linearly in the number of edges in the graph. Finally, we analyze the algorithm theoretically and provide sufficient conditions under which the algorithm recovers a set of planted clusters under a standard random graph model.

We study the problem of online learning with dynamics, where a learner interacts with a stateful environment over multiple rounds. In each round of the interaction, the learner selects a policy to deploy and incurs a cost that depends on both the chosen policy and current state of the world. The state-evolution dynamics and the costs are allowed to be time-varying, in a possibly adversarial way. In this setting, we study the problem of minimizing policy regret and provide non-constructive upper bounds on the minimax rate for the problem. Our main results provide sufficient conditions for online learnability for this setup with corresponding rates. The rates are characterized by 1) a complexity term capturing the expressiveness of the underlying policy class under the dynamics of state change, and 2) a dynamics stability term measuring the deviation of the instantaneous loss from a certain counterfactual loss. Further, we provide matching lower bounds which show that both the complexity terms are indeed necessary. Our approach provides a unifying analysis that recovers regret bounds for several well studied problems including online learning with memory, online control of linear quadratic regulators, online Markov decision processes, and tracking adversarial targets. In addition, we show how our tools help obtain tight regret bounds for a new problems (with non-linear dynamics and non-convex losses) for which such bounds were not known prior to our work.

Full truckload transportation (FTL) in the form of freight containers represents one of the most important transportation modes in international trade. Due to large volume and scale, in FTL, delivery time is often less critical but cost and service quality are crucial. Therefore, efficiently solving large scale multiple shift FTL problems is becoming more and more important and requires further research. In one of our earlier studies, a set covering model and a three-stage solution method were developed for a multi-shift FTL problem. This paper extends the previous work and presents a significantly more efficient approach by hybridising pricing and cutting strategies with metaheuristics (a variable neighbourhood search and a genetic algorithm). The metaheuristics were adopted to find promising columns (vehicle routes) guided by pricing and cuts are dynamically generated to eliminate infeasible flow assignments caused by incompatible commodities. Computational experiments on real-life and artificial benchmark FTL problems showed superior performance both in terms of computational time and solution quality, when compared with previous MIP based three-stage methods and two existing metaheuristics. The proposed cutting and heuristic pricing approach can efficiently solve large scale real-life FTL problems.

Local search is widely used to solve combinatorial optimisation problems and to model biological evolution, but the performance of local search algorithms on different kinds of fitness landscapes is poorly understood. Here we consider how fitness landscapes can be represented using valued constraints, and investigate what the structure of such representations reveals about the complexity of local search. First, we show that for fitness landscapes representable by binary Boolean valued constraints there is a minimal necessary constraint graph that can be easily computed. Second, we consider landscapes as equivalent if they allow the same (improving) local search moves; we show that a minimal constraint graph still exists, but is NP-hard to compute. We then develop several techniques to bound the length of any sequence of local search moves. We show that such a bound can be obtained from the numerical values of the constraints in the representation, and show how this bound may be tightened by considering equivalent representations. In the binary Boolean case, we prove that a degree 2 or treestructured constraint graph gives a quadratic bound on the number of improving moves made by any local search; hence, any landscape that can be represented by such a model will be tractable for any form of local search. Finally, we build two families of examples to show that the conditions in our tractability results are essential. With domain size three, even just a path of binary constraints can model a landscape with an exponentially long sequence of improving moves. With a treewidth-two constraint graph, even with a maximum degree of three, binary Boolean constraints can model a landscape with an exponentially long sequence of improving moves.