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Predicting and Publishing Accurate Imbalance Prices Using Monte Carlo Tree Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing reliance on renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, has introduced challenges due to their uncontrollable production. This complicates maintaining the electrical grid balance, prompting some transmission system operators in Western Europe to implement imbalance tariffs that penalize unsustainable power deviations. These tariffs create an implicit demand response framework to mitigate grid instability. Yet, several challenges limit active participation. In Belgium, for example, imbalance prices are only calculated at the end of each 15-minute settlement period, creating high risk due to price uncertainty. This risk is further amplified by the inherent volatility of imbalance prices, discouraging participation. Although transmission system operators provide minute-based price predictions, the system imbalance volatility makes accurate price predictions challenging to obtain and requires sophisticated techniques. Moreover, publishing price estimates can prompt participants to adjust their schedules, potentially affecting the system balance and the final price, adding further complexity. To address these challenges, we propose a Monte Carlo Tree Search method that publishes accurate imbalance prices while accounting for potential response actions. Our approach models the system dynamics using a neural network forecaster and a cluster of virtual batteries controlled by reinforcement learning agents. Compared to Belgium's current publication method, our technique improves price accuracy by 20.4% under ideal conditions and by 12.8% in more realistic scenarios. This research addresses an unexplored, yet crucial problem, positioning this paper as a pioneering work in analyzing the potential of more advanced imbalance price publishing techniques.


Symbolic regression via MDLformer-guided search: from minimizing prediction error to minimizing description length

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Symbolic regression, a task discovering the formula best fitting the given data, is typically based on the heuristical search. These methods usually update candidate formulas to obtain new ones with lower prediction errors iteratively. However, since formulas with similar function shapes may have completely different symbolic forms, the prediction error does not decrease monotonously as the search approaches the target formula, causing the low recovery rate of existing methods. To solve this problem, we propose a novel search objective based on the minimum description length, which reflects the distance from the target and decreases monotonically as the search approaches the correct form of the target formula. To estimate the minimum description length of any input data, we design a neural network, MDLformer, which enables robust and scalable estimation through large-scale training. With the MDLformer's output as the search objective, we implement a symbolic regression method, SR4MDL, that can effectively recover the correct mathematical form of the formula. Extensive experiments illustrate its excellent performance in recovering formulas from data. Our method successfully recovers around 50 formulas across two benchmark datasets comprising 133 problems, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by 43.92%.


Near-Optimal Dynamic Regret for Adversarial Linear Mixture MDPs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study episodic linear mixture MDPs with the unknown transition and adversarial rewards under full-information feedback, employing dynamic regret as the performance measure. We start with in-depth analyses of the strengths and limitations of the two most popular methods: occupancy-measure-based and policy-based methods. We observe that while the occupancy-measure-based method is effective in addressing non-stationary environments, it encounters difficulties with the unknown transition. In contrast, the policy-based method can deal with the unknown transition effectively but faces challenges in handling non-stationary environments. Building on this, we propose a novel algorithm that combines the benefits of both methods. Specifically, it employs (i) an occupancy-measure-based global optimization with a two-layer structure to handle non-stationary environments; and (ii) a policy-based variance-aware value-targeted regression to tackle the unknown transition. We bridge these two parts by a novel conversion. Our algorithm enjoys an $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d \sqrt{H^3 K} + \sqrt{HK(H + \bar{P}_K)})$ dynamic regret, where $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ is the episode length, $K$ is the number of episodes, $\bar{P}_K$ is the non-stationarity measure. We show it is minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors by establishing a matching lower bound. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that achieves near-optimal dynamic regret for adversarial linear mixture MDPs with the unknown transition without prior knowledge of the non-stationarity measure.


SibylSat: Using SAT as an Oracle to Perform a Greedy Search on TOHTN Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents SibylSat, a novel SAT-based method designed to efficiently solve totally-ordered HTN problems (TOHTN). In contrast to prevailing SAT-based HTN planners that employ a breadth-first search strategy, SibylSat adopts a greedy search approach, enabling it to identify promising decompositions for expansion. The selection process is facilitated by a heuristic derived from solving a relaxed problem, which is also expressed as a SAT problem. Our experimental evaluations demonstrate that SibylSat outperforms existing SAT-based TOHTN approaches in terms of both runtime and plan quality on most of the IPC benchmarks, while also solving a larger number of problems.


Nash Equilibria via Stochastic Eigendecomposition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work proposes a novel set of techniques for approximating a Nash equilibrium in a finite, normal-form game. It achieves this by constructing a new reformulation as solving a parameterized system of multivariate polynomials with tunable complexity. In doing so, it forges an itinerant loop from game theory to machine learning and back. We show a Nash equilibrium can be approximated with purely calls to stochastic, iterative variants of singular value decomposition and power iteration, with implications for biological plausibility. We provide pseudocode and experiments demonstrating solving for all equilibria of a general-sum game using only these readily available linear algebra tools.


Heterogeneous Multi-robot Task Allocation for Long-Endurance Missions in Dynamic Scenarios

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a framework for Multi-Robot Task Allocation (MRTA) in heterogeneous teams performing long-endurance missions in dynamic scenarios. Given the limited battery of robots, especially in the case of aerial vehicles, we allow for robot recharges and the possibility of fragmenting and/or relaying certain tasks. We also address tasks that must be performed by a coalition of robots in a coordinated manner. Given these features, we introduce a new class of heterogeneous MRTA problems which we analyze theoretically and optimally formulate as a Mixed-Integer Linear Program. We then contribute a heuristic algorithm to compute approximate solutions and integrate it into a mission planning and execution architecture capable of reacting to unexpected events by repairing or recomputing plans online. Our experimental results show the relevance of our newly formulated problem in a realistic use case for inspection with aerial robots. We assess the performance of our heuristic solver in comparison with other variants and with exact optimal solutions in small-scale scenarios. In addition, we evaluate the ability of our replanning framework to repair plans online.


Linear Causal Bandits: Unknown Graph and Soft Interventions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Designing causal bandit algorithms depends on two central categories of assumptions: (i) the extent of information about the underlying causal graphs and (ii) the extent of information about interventional statistical models. There have been extensive recent advances in dispensing with assumptions on either category. These include assuming known graphs but unknown interventional distributions, and the converse setting of assuming unknown graphs but access to restrictive hard/$\operatorname{do}$ interventions, which removes the stochasticity and ancestral dependencies. Nevertheless, the problem in its general form, i.e., unknown graph and unknown stochastic intervention models, remains open. This paper addresses this problem and establishes that in a graph with $N$ nodes, maximum in-degree $d$ and maximum causal path length $L$, after $T$ interaction rounds the regret upper bound scales as $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}((cd)^{L-\frac{1}{2}}\sqrt{T} + d + RN)$ where $c>1$ is a constant and $R$ is a measure of intervention power. A universal minimax lower bound is also established, which scales as $\Omega(d^{L-\frac{3}{2}}\sqrt{T})$. Importantly, the graph size $N$ has a diminishing effect on the regret as $T$ grows. These bounds have matching behavior in $T$, exponential dependence on $L$, and polynomial dependence on $d$ (with the gap $d\ $). On the algorithmic aspect, the paper presents a novel way of designing a computationally efficient CB algorithm, addressing a challenge that the existing CB algorithms using soft interventions face.


Customized Subgraph Selection and Encoding for Drug-drug Interaction Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Subgraph-based methods have proven to be effective and interpretable in predicting drug-drug interactions (DDIs), which are essential for medical practice and drug development. Subgraph selection and encoding are critical stages in these methods, yet customizing these components remains underexplored due to the high cost of manual adjustments. In this study, inspired by the success of neural architecture search (NAS), we propose a method to search for data-specific components within subgraph-based frameworks. Specifically, we introduce extensive subgraph selection and encoding spaces that account for the diverse contexts of drug interactions in DDI prediction. To address the challenge of large search spaces and high sampling costs, we design a relaxation mechanism that uses an approximation strategy to efficiently explore optimal subgraph configurations. This approach allows for robust exploration of the search space. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method, with the discovered subgraphs and encoding functions highlighting the model's adaptability.


Large-Scale Multi-Robot Coverage Path Planning on Grids with Path Deconfliction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--We study Multi-Robot Coverage Path Planning (MCPP) on a 4-neighbor 2D grid G, which aims to compute paths for multiple robots to cover all cells of G. Traditional approaches are limited as they first compute coverage trees on a quadrant coarsened grid H and then employ the Spanning Tree Coverage (STC) paradigm to generate paths on G, making them inapplicable to grids with partially obstructed 2 2 blocks. To address this limitation, we reformulate the problem directly on G, revolutionizing grid-based MCPP solving and establishing new NP-hardness results. We introduce Extended-STC (ESTC), a novel paradigm that extends STC to ensure complete coverage with bounded suboptimality, even when H includes partially obstructed blocks. These methods then apply the Spanning Tree Coverage (STC) [17] paradigm to generate coverage I. Coverage Path Planning (CPP) addresses the problem of determining However, operating exclusively on the coarsened grid H has a path that fully covers a designated workspace [1]. First, it fails in cases where H is This problem is essential for a broad spectrum of robotic incomplete--that is, when any 2 2 blocks contain obstructed applications, from indoor tasks like vacuum cleaning [2] and grid cells absent from G. Second, even optimal coverage trees inspection [3] to outdoor activities such as automated harvesting on H do not necessarily result in an optimal MCPP solution (as [4], planetary exploration [5], and environmental monitoring illustrated in Figure 1-(b) and (c)), as evidenced by an asymptotic [6]. Multi-Robot Coverage Path Planning (MCPP) is an suboptimality ratio of four for makespan minimization [14], extension of CPP tailored for multi-robot systems, aiming to since the paths derived from circumnavigating coverage trees coordinate the paths of multiple robots to collectively cover the of H constitute only a subset of all possible sets of coverage given workspace, thereby enhancing both task efficiency [7] The authors are with the School of Computing Science, Simon to discuss the structure and topology of G more precisely, especially in the Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A1S6, Canada. The robots require a cost of 1 to traverse between adjacent vertices of G. (a) Single-robot coverage path LS-MCPP but also those generated by existing MCPP methods, to effectively resolve conflicts between robots We revolutionize solving MCPP on grid graphs, overcoming and accounts for turning costs, further enhancing the the above limitations through a two-phase approach that first practicability of the solutions. Our algorithmic contribution are detailed in real-world robotics applications.


Differentiable architecture search with multi-dimensional attention for spiking neural networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have gained enormous popularity in the field of artificial intelligence due to their low power consumption. However, the majority of SNN methods directly inherit the structure of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), usually leading to sub-optimal model performance in SNNs. To alleviate this problem, we integrate Neural Architecture Search (NAS) method and propose Multi-Attention Differentiable Architecture Search (MA-DARTS) to directly automate the search for the optimal network structure of SNNs. Initially, we defined a differentiable two-level search space and conducted experiments within micro architecture under a fixed layer. Then, we incorporated a multi-dimensional attention mechanism and implemented the MA-DARTS algorithm in this search space. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on classification compared to other methods under the same parameters with 94.40% accuracy on CIFAR10 dataset and 76.52% accuracy on CIFAR100 dataset. Additionally, we monitored and assessed the number of spikes (NoS) in each cell during the whole experiment. Notably, the number of spikes of the whole model stabilized at approximately 110K in validation and 100k in training on datasets.