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Online Learning with Gaussian Payoffs and Side Observations
Yifan Wu, András György, Csaba Szepesvari
We consider a sequential learning problem with Gaussian payoffs and side observations: after selecting an action i, the learner receives information about the payoff of every action j in the form of Gaussian observations whose mean is the same as the mean payoff, but the variance depends on the pair (i,j) (and may be infinite). The setup allows a more refined information transfer from one action to another than previous partial monitoring setups, including the recently introduced graph-structured feedback case. For the first time in the literature, we provide non-asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds on the regret of any algorithm, which recover existing asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds and finite-time minimax lower bounds available in the literature. We also provide algorithms that achieve the problem-dependent lower bound (up to some universal constant factor) or the minimax lower bounds (up to logarithmic factors).
Lifted Symmetry Detection and Breaking for MAP Inference
Timothy Kopp, Parag Singla, Henry Kautz
Symmetry breaking is a technique for speeding up propositional satisfiability testing by adding constraints to the theory that restrict the search space while preserving satisfiability. In this work, we extend symmetry breaking to the problem of model finding in weighted and unweighted relational theories, a class of problems that includes MAP inference in Markov Logic and similar statistical-relational languages. We introduce term symmetries, which are induced by an evidence set and extend to symmetries over a relational theory. We provide the important special case of term equivalent symmetries, showing that such symmetries can be found in low-degree polynomial time. We show how to break an exponential number of these symmetries with added constraints whose number is linear in the size of the domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques through experiments in two relational domains. We also discuss the connections between relational symmetry breaking and work on lifted inference in statistical-relational reasoning.
Minimax Time Series Prediction
We consider an adversarial formulation of the problem of predicting a time series with square loss. The aim is to predict an arbitrary sequence of vectors almost as well as the best smooth comparator sequence in retrospect. Our approach allows natural measures of smoothness such as the squared norm of increments. More generally, we consider a linear time series model and penalize the compara-tor sequence through the energy of the implied driving noise terms. We derive the minimax strategy for all problems of this type and show that it can be implemented efficiently. The optimal predictions are linear in the previous observations. We obtain an explicit expression for the regret in terms of the parameters defining the problem. For typical, simple definitions of smoothness, the computation of the optimal predictions involves only sparse matrices. In the case of norm-constrained data, where the smoothness is defined in terms of the squared norm of the com-parator's increments, we show that the regret grows as T/ λ