Rule-Based Reasoning
Learning to Advise Humans in High-Stakes Settings
Wolczynski, Nicholas, Saar-Tsechansky, Maytal, Wang, Tong
Expert decision-makers (DMs) in high-stakes AI-assisted decision-making (AIaDM) settings receive and reconcile recommendations from AI systems before making their final decisions. We identify distinct properties of these settings which are key to developing AIaDM models that effectively benefit team performance. First, DMs incur reconciliation costs from exerting decision-making resources (e.g., time and effort) when reconciling AI recommendations that contradict their own judgment. Second, DMs in AIaDM settings exhibit algorithm discretion behavior (ADB), i.e., an idiosyncratic tendency to imperfectly accept or reject algorithmic recommendations for any given decision task. The human's reconciliation costs and imperfect discretion behavior introduce the need to develop AI systems which (1) provide recommendations selectively, (2) leverage the human partner's ADB to maximize the team's decision accuracy while regularizing for reconciliation costs, and (3) are inherently interpretable. We refer to the task of developing AI to advise humans in AIaDM settings as learning to advise and we address this task by first introducing the AI-assisted Team (AIaT)-Learning Framework. We instantiate our framework to develop TeamRules (TR): an algorithm that produces rule-based models and recommendations for AIaDM settings. TR is optimized to selectively advise a human and to trade-off reconciliation costs and team accuracy for a given environment by leveraging the human partner's ADB. Evaluations on synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets with a variety of simulated human accuracy and discretion behaviors show that TR robustly improves the team's objective across settings over interpretable, rule-based alternatives.
Multilingual Normalization of Temporal Expressions with Masked Language Models
Lange, Lukas, Strรถtgen, Jannik, Adel, Heike, Klakow, Dietrich
The detection and normalization of temporal expressions is an important task and preprocessing step for many applications. However, prior work on normalization is rule-based, which severely limits the applicability in real-world multilingual settings, due to the costly creation of new rules. We propose a novel neural method for normalizing temporal expressions based on masked language modeling. Our multilingual method outperforms prior rule-based systems in many languages, and in particular, for low-resource languages with performance improvements of up to 33 F1 on average compared to the state of the art.
Explaining with Greater Support: Weighted Column Sampling Optimization for q-Consistent Summary-Explanations
Peng, Chen, Dai, Zhengqi, Xia, Guangping, Niu, Yajie, Lei, Yihui
Machine learning systems have been extensively used as auxiliary tools in domains that require critical decision-making, such as healthcare and criminal justice. The explainability of decisions is crucial for users to develop trust on these systems. In recent years, the globally-consistent rule-based summary-explanation and its max-support (MS) problem have been proposed, which can provide explanations for particular decisions along with useful statistics of the dataset. However, globally-consistent summary-explanations with limited complexity typically have small supports, if there are any. In this paper, we propose a relaxed version of summary-explanation, i.e., the $q$-consistent summary-explanation, which aims to achieve greater support at the cost of slightly lower consistency. The challenge is that the max-support problem of $q$-consistent summary-explanation (MSqC) is much more complex than the original MS problem, resulting in over-extended solution time using standard branch-and-bound solvers. To improve the solution time efficiency, this paper proposes the weighted column sampling~(WCS) method based on solving smaller problems by sampling variables according to their simplified increase support (SIS) values. Experiments verify that solving MSqC with the proposed SIS-based WCS method is not only more scalable in efficiency, but also yields solutions with greater support and better global extrapolation effectiveness.
The Monitor Model and its Misconceptions: A Clarification
Horizontal (automatic) and vertical (control) processes have been observed and reported for a long time in translation production. Schaeffer and Carl's Monitor Model integrates these two processes into one framework, assuming that priming mechanisms underlie horizontal/automatic processes, while vertical/monitoring processes implement consciously accessible control mechanisms. The Monitor Model has been criticized in various ways and several misconceptions have accumulated over the past years. In this chapter, I update the Monitor Model with additional evidence and argue that it is compatible with an enactivist approach to cognition. I address several misconceptions related to the Monitor Model.
Personalized Interpretable Classification
He, Zengyou, Tang, Yifan, Hu, Lianyu, Jiang, Mudi, Liu, Yan
How to interpret a data mining model has received much attention recently, because people may distrust a black-box predictive model if they do not understand how the model works. Hence, it will be trustworthy if a model can provide transparent illustrations on how to make the decision. Although many rule-based interpretable classification algorithms have been proposed, all these existing solutions cannot directly construct an interpretable model to provide personalized prediction for each individual test sample. In this paper, we make a first step towards formally introducing personalized interpretable classification as a new data mining problem to the literature. In addition to the problem formulation on this new issue, we present a greedy algorithm called PIC (Personalized Interpretable Classifier) to identify a personalized rule for each individual test sample. To demonstrate the necessity, feasibility and advantages of such a personalized interpretable classification method, we conduct a series of empirical studies on real data sets. The experimental results show that: (1) The new problem formulation enables us to find interesting rules for test samples that may be missed by existing non-personalized classifiers. (2) Our algorithm can achieve the same-level predictive accuracy as those state-of-the-art (SOTA) interpretable classifiers. (3) On a real data set for predicting breast cancer metastasis, such a personalized interpretable classifier can outperform SOTA methods in terms of both accuracy and interpretability.
ODEWS: The Overdraft Early Warning System
Kumar, Avishek, Angelov, Ivelin Georgiev, Kause, Kymm, Silver, Tyson
When a customer overdraws their account and their balance is negative they are assessed an overdraft fee. Americans pay approximately \$15 billion in unnecessary overdraft fees a year, often in \$35 increments; users of the Mint personal finance app pay approximately \$250 million in fees a year in particular. These overdraft fees are an excessive financial burden and lead to cascading overdraft fees trapping customers in financial hardship. To address this problem, we have created an ML-driven overdraft early warning system (ODEWS) that assesses a customer's risk of overdrafting within the next week using their banking and transaction data in the Mint app. At-risk customers are sent an alert so they can take steps to avoid the fee, ultimately changing their behavior and financial habits. The system deployed resulted in a \$3 million savings in overdraft fees for Mint customers compared to a control group. Moreover, the methodology outlined here can be generalized to provide ML-driven personalized financial advice for many different personal finance goals--increase credit score, build emergency savings fund, pay down debut, allocate capital for investment.
Real vs. Fake AI - How to Spot the Difference
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has come a long way in recent years and is rapidly changing the way we live and work. While AI has the potential to greatly benefit society, it's important to understand that not all AI is created equal. Alin Turing's 1950 paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" and its subsequent Turing Test established the fundamental goal and vision of AI. Real artificial Intelligence can be divided into several subsets, including machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, expert system, robotics, machine vision and speech recognition. These subsets of AI are continuously evolving and expanding as technology advances, creating new and exciting possibilities in the field of AI.
Causal Inference Based Single-branch Ensemble Trees For Uplift Modeling
Zheng, Fanglan, Wang, Menghan, Li, Kun, Tian, Jiang, Xiang, Xiaojia
In this manuscript (ms), we propose causal inference based single-branch ensemble trees for uplift modeling, namely CIET. Different from standard classification methods for predictive probability modeling, CIET aims to achieve the change in the predictive probability of outcome caused by an action or a treatment. According to our CIET, two partition criteria are specifically designed to maximize the difference in outcome distribution between the treatment and control groups. Next, a novel single-branch tree is built by taking a top-down node partition approach, and the remaining samples are censored since they are not covered by the upper node partition logic. Repeating the tree-building process on the censored data, single-branch ensemble trees with a set of inference rules are thus formed. Moreover, CIET is experimentally demonstrated to outperform previous approaches for uplift modeling in terms of both area under uplift curve (AUUC) and Qini coefficient significantly. At present, CIET has already been applied to online personal loans in a national financial holdings group in China. CIET will also be of use to analysts applying machine learning techniques to causal inference in broader business domains such as web advertising, medicine and economics.
PyGlove: Efficiently Exchanging ML Ideas as Code
Peng, Daiyi, Dong, Xuanyi, Real, Esteban, Lu, Yifeng, Le, Quoc V.
The increasing complexity and scale of machine learning (ML) has led to the need for more efficient collaboration among multiple teams. For example, when a research team invents a new architecture like "ResNet," it is desirable for multiple engineering teams to adopt it. However, the effort required for each team to study and understand the invention does not scale well with the number of teams or inventions. In this paper, we present an extension of our PyGlove library to easily and scalably share ML ideas. PyGlove represents ideas as symbolic rule-based patches, enabling researchers to write down the rules for models they have not seen. For example, an inventor can write rules that will "add skip-connections." This permits a network effect among teams: at once, any team can issue patches to all other teams. Such a network effect allows users to quickly surmount the cost of adopting PyGlove by writing less code quicker, providing a benefit that scales with time. We describe the new paradigm of organizing ML through symbolic patches and compare it to existing approaches. We also perform a case study of a large codebase where PyGlove led to an 80% reduction in the number of lines of code.
Using Machine Learning to Develop Smart Reflex Testing Protocols
McDermott, Matthew, Dighe, Anand, Szolovits, Peter, Luo, Yuan, Baron, Jason
Objective: Reflex testing protocols allow clinical laboratories to perform second line diagnostic tests on existing specimens based on the results of initially ordered tests. Reflex testing can support optimal clinical laboratory test ordering and diagnosis. In current clinical practice, reflex testing typically relies on simple "if-then" rules; however, this limits their scope since most test ordering decisions involve more complexity than a simple rule will allow. Here, using the analyte ferritin as an example, we propose an alternative machine learning-based approach to "smart" reflex testing with a wider scope and greater impact than traditional rule-based approaches. Methods: Using patient data, we developed a machine learning model to predict whether a patient getting CBC testing will also have ferritin testing ordered, consider applications of this model to "smart" reflex testing, and evaluate the model by comparing its performance to possible rule-based approaches. Results: Our underlying machine learning models performed moderately well in predicting ferritin test ordering and demonstrated greater suitability to reflex testing than rule-based approaches. Using chart review, we demonstrate that our model may improve ferritin test ordering. Finally, as a secondary goal, we demonstrate that ferritin test results are missing not at random (MNAR), a finding with implications for unbiased imputation of missing test results. Conclusions: Machine learning may provide a foundation for new types of reflex testing with enhanced benefits for clinical diagnosis and laboratory utilization management.