This paper presents a new technique for the design of approximate reasoning based controllers for dynamic physical systems with interacting goals. In this approach, goals are achieved based on a hierarchy defined by a control knowledge base and remain highly interactive during the execution of the control task. The approach has been implemented in a rule-based computer program which is used in conjunction with a prototype hardware system to solve the cart-pole balancing problem in real-time. It provides a complementary approach to the conventional analytical control methodology, and is of substantial use where a precise mathematical model of the process being controlled is not available.

This paper describes a natural framework for rules, based on belief functions, which includes a repre- sentation of numerical rules, default rules and rules allowing and rules not allowing contraposition. In particular it justifies the use of the Dempster-Shafer Theory for representing a particular class of rules, Belief calculated being a lower probability given certain independence assumptions on an underlying space. It shows how a belief function framework can be generalised to other logics, including a general Monte-Carlo algorithm for calculating belief, and how a version of Reiter's Default Logic can be seen as a limiting case of a belief function formalism.

The use of numerical uncertainty representations allows better modeling of some aspects of human evidential reasoning. It also makes knowledge acquisition and system development, test, and modification more difficult. We propose that where possible, the assignment and/or refinement of rule weights should be performed automatically. We present one approach to performing this training - numerical optimization - and report on the results of some preliminary tests in training rule bases. We also show that truth maintenance can be used to make training more efficient and ask some epistemological questions raised by training rule weights.

Rather than discussing the isolated merits of a nominative theory of uncertainty, this paper focuses on a class of problems, referred to as Dynamic Classification Problem (DCP), which requires the integration of many theories, including a prescriptive theory of uncertainty. We start by analyzing the Dynamic Classification Problem and by defining its induced requirements on a supporting (plausible) reasoning system. We provide a summary of the underlying theory (based on the semantics of many-valed logics) and illustrate the constraints imposed upon it to ensure the modularity and computational performance required by the applications. We describe the technologies used for knowledge engineering (such as object-based simulator to exercise requirements, and development tools to build the Knowledge Base and functionally validate it). We emphasize the difference between development environment and run-time system, describe the rule cross-compiler, and the real-time inference engine with meta-reasoning capabilities. Finally, we illustrate how our proposed technology satisfies the pop's requirements and analyze some of the lessons reamed from its applications to situation assessment problems for Pilot's Associate and Submarine Commander Associate.

This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the spectrum. A major undercurrent in this is advocating the need for a strong underlying model and an integrated set of support tools for carrying such a model in order to deal with uncertainty.

An experiment replicated and extended recent findings on psychologically realistic ways of modeling propagation of uncertainty in rule based reasoning. Within a single production rule, the antecedent evidence can be summarized by taking the maximum of disjunctively connected antecedents and the minimum of conjunctively connected antecedents. The maximum certainty factor attached to each of the rule's conclusions can be sealed down by multiplication with this summarized antecedent certainty. Heckerman's modified certainty factor technique can be used to combine certainties for common conclusions across production rules.

This paper examines the biases and performance of several uncertain inference systems: Mycin, a variant of Mycin. and a simplified version of probability using conditional independence assumptions. We present axiomatic arguments for using Minimum Cross Entropy inference as the best way to do uncertain inference. For Mycin and its variant we found special situations where its performance was very good, but also situations where performance was worse than random guessing, or where data was interpreted as having the opposite of its true import We have found that all three of these systems usually gave accurate results, and that the conditional independence assumptions gave the most robust results. We illustrate how the Importance of biases may be quantitatively assessed and ranked. Considerations of robustness might be a critical factor is selecting UlS's for a given application.

More precisely, given an evaluation of certain evidences, an evidential reasoning scheme generates an evaluation of certain hypotheses. When the evaluation of the evidences Is a binary one, that Is, we either have an evidence or do not have that evidence, the scheme acts as a set function for each hypothesis: a value as an evaluation of the hypothesis Is assigned to each subset of evidences. When the evaluation of hypotheses is also a binary one, the scheme can be represented by a collection of boolean "If-then" rules. Various approaches may be used to mak e this collection more compact. Intermediate concepts, default rules, and other Inventions I Ik e the "choice components" in SEEK2 are among these approaches. The problem becomes more compl lcated when the evaluation of hypotheses uses values from a I inearly ordered set (Integers, real numbers, or I lngulstlc quantifiers) or a partially ordered set (Intervals or property hierarchies). It becomes even more complex when hypotheses are related to each other (Shafer's theory Is an example when hypotheses are subsets of a set), or when the evaluation of evidences are not binary (systems where hypotheses can serve as evidences to other hypothese are examp I es).

We describe a method for incrementally constructing belief networks. We have developed a networkconstruction language similar to a forward-chaining language using data dependencies, but with additional features for specifying distributions. Using this language, we can define parameterized classes of probabilistic models. These parameterized models make it possible to apply probabilistic reasoning to problems for which it is impractical to have a single large, static model.

The role of inferencing with uncertainty is becoming more important in rule-based expert systems (ES), since knowledge given by a human expert is often uncertain or imprecise. We have succeeded in designing a VLSI chip which can perform an entire inference process based on fuzzy logic. The design of the VLSI fuzzy inference engine emphasizes simplicity, extensibility, and efficiency (operational speed and layout area). It is fabricated in 2.5 um CMOS technology. The inference engine consists of three major components; a rule set memory, an inference processor, and a controller. In this implementation, a rule set memory is realized by a read only memory (ROM). The controller consists of two counters. In the inference processor, one data path is laid out for each rule. The number of the inference rule can be increased adding more data paths to the inference processor. All rules are executed in parallel, but each rule is processed serially. The logical structure of fuzzy inference proposed in the current paper maps nicely onto the VLSI structure. A two-phase nonoverlapping clocking scheme is used. Timing tests indicate that the inference engine can operate at approximately 20.8 MHz. This translates to an execution speed of approximately 80,000 Fuzzy Logical Inferences Per Second (FLIPS), and indicates that the inference engine is suitable for a demanding real-time application. The potential applications include decision-making in the area of command and control for intelligent robot systems, process control, missile and aircraft guidance, and other high performance machines.