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 Model-Based Reasoning


Run, Skeleton, Run: Skeletal Model in a Physics-Based Simulation

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we present our approach to solve a physics-based reinforcement learning challenge "Learning to Run'' with objective to train physiologically-based human model to navigate a complex obstacle course as quickly as possible.The environment is computationally expensive, has a high-dimensional continuous action space and is stochastic. We benchmark state of the art policy-gradient methods and test several improvements, such as layer normalization, parameter noise, action and state reflecting, to stabilize training and improve its sample-efficiency.We found that the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient method is the most efficient method for this environment and the improvements we have introduced help to stabilize training.Learned models are able to generalize to new physical scenarios, e.g. different obstacle courses.


On Estimating Multi-Attribute Choice Preferences using Private Signals and Matrix Factorization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Revealed preference theory studies the possibility of modeling an agent's revealed preferences and the construction of a consistent utility function. However, modeling agent's choices over preference orderings is not always practical and demands strong assumptions on human rationality and data-acquisition abilities. Therefore, we propose a simple generative choice model where agents are assumed to generate the choice probabilities based on latent factor matrices that capture their choice evaluation across multiple attributes. Since the multi-attribute evaluation is typically hidden within the agent's psyche, we consider a signaling mechanism where agents are provided with choice information through private signals, so that the agent's choices provide more insight about his/her latent evaluation across multiple attributes. We estimate the choice model via a novel multi-stage matrix factorization algorithm that minimizes the average deviation of the factor estimates from choice data. Simulation results are presented to validate the estimation performance of our proposed algorithm.


Machine-Translated Knowledge Transfer for Commonsense Causal Reasoning

AAAI Conferences

This paper studies the problem of multilingual causal reasoning in resource-poor languages. Existing approaches, translating into the most probable resource-rich language such as English, suffer in the presence of translation and language gaps between different cultural area, which leads to the loss of causality. To overcome these challenges, our goal is thus to identify key techniques to construct a new causality network of cause-effect terms, targeted for the machine-translated English, but without any language-specific knowledge of resource-poor languages. In our evaluations with three languages, Korean, Chinese, and French, our proposed method consistently outperforms all baselines, achieving up-to 69.0% reasoning accuracy, which is close to the state-of-the-art accuracy 70.2% achieved on English.


Core Dependency Networks

AAAI Conferences

Many applications infer the structure of a probabilistic graphical model from data to elucidate the relationships between variables. But how can we train graphical models on a massive data set? In this paper, we show how to construct coresets---compressed data sets which can be used as proxy for the original data and have provably bounded worst case error---for Gaussian dependency networks (DNs), i.e., cyclic directed graphical models over Gaussians, where the parents of each variable are its Markov blanket. Specifically, we prove that Gaussian DNs admit coresets of size independent of the size of the data set. Unfortunately, this does not extend to DNs over members of the exponential family in general. As we will prove, Poisson DNs do not admit small coresets. Despite this worst-case result, we will provide an argument why our coreset construction for DNs can still work well in practice on count data.To corroborate our theoretical results, we empirically evaluated the resulting Core DNs on real data sets. The results demonstrate significant gains over no or naive sub-sampling, even in the case of count data.


Run, skeleton, run: skeletal model in a physics-based simulation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we present our approach to solve a physics-based reinforcement learning challenge "Learning to Run" with objective to train physiologically-based human model to navigate a complex obstacle course as quickly as possible. The environment is computationally expensive, has a high-dimensional continuous action space and is stochastic. We benchmark state of the art policy-gradient methods and test several improvements, such as layer normalization, parameter noise, action and state reflecting, to stabilize training and improve its sample-efficiency. We found that the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient method is the most efficient method for this environment and the improvements we have introduced help to stabilize training. Learned models are able to generalize to new physical scenarios, e.g. different obstacle courses.


Avoiding Discrimination through Causal Reasoning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent work on fairness in machine learning has focused on various statistical discrimination criteria and how they trade off. Most of these criteria are observational: They depend only on the joint distribution of predictor, protected attribute, features, and outcome. While convenient to work with, observational criteria have severe inherent limitations that prevent them from resolving matters of fairness conclusively. Going beyond observational criteria, we frame the problem of discrimination based on protected attributes in the language of causal reasoning. This viewpoint shifts attention from "What is the right fairness criterion?" to "What do we want to assume about the causal data generating process?" Through the lens of causality, we make several contributions. First, we crisply articulate why and when observational criteria fail, thus formalizing what was before a matter of opinion. Second, our approach exposes previously ignored subtleties and why they are fundamental to the problem. Finally, we put forward natural causal non-discrimination criteria and develop algorithms that satisfy them.


Model-Based Systems in the Automotive Industry

AI Magazine

The automotive industry was the first to promote the development of applications of model-based systems technology on a broad scale and, as a result, has produced some of the most advanced prototypes and products. In this article, we illustrate the features and benefits of model-based systems and qualitative modeling by prototypes and application systems that were developed in the automotive industry to support on-board diagnosis, design for diagnosability, and failure modes and effects analysis. Car manufacturers and their suppliers face increasingly serious challenges particularly related to fault analysis and diagnosis during the life cycle of their products. On the one hand, the complexity and sophistication of vehicles is growing, so it is becoming harder to predict interactions between vehicle systems, especially when failures occur. On the other hand, legal regulations and the demand for safety impose strong requirements on the detection and identification of faults and the prevention of their effects on the environment or dangerous situations for passengers and other people.


National Aeronautics and Space Administration Workshop on Monitoring and Diagnosis

AI Magazine

The First National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Workshop on Monitoring and Diagnosis was held in Pasadena, California, from 15 to 17 January 1992. The workshop brought together individuals from NASA centers, academia, and aerospace who have a common interest in AIbased approaches to monitoring and diagnosis technology. The workshop was intended to promote familiarity, discussion, and collaboration among the research, development, and user communities. The First National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Workshop on Monitoring and Diagnosis was held in Pasadena, California, from 15 to 17 January 1992. The workshop was hosted by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and took place at the Ritz-Carlton Huntington Hotel.


Model-Based Programming of Fault-Aware Systems

AI Magazine

A wide range of sensor-rich, networked embedded systems are being created that must operate robustly for years in the face of novel failures by managing complex autonomic processes. These systems are being composed, for example, into vast networks of space, air, ground, and underwater vehicles. Our objective is to revolutionize the way in which we control these new artifacts by creating reactive model-based programming languages that enable everyday systems to reason intelligently and enable machines to explore other worlds. A model-based program is state and fault aware; it elevates the programming task to specifying intended state evolutions of a system. The program's executive automatically coordinates system interactions to achieve these states, entertaining known and potential failures, using models of its constituents and environment.


Model-Based Diagnosis under Real-World Constraints

AI Magazine

I report on my experience over the past few years in introducing automated, model-based diagnostic technologies into industrial settings. In particular, I discuss the competition that this technology has been receiving from handcrafted, rule-based diagnostic systems that has set some high standards that must be met by model-based systems before they can be viewed as viable alternatives. The battle between model-based and rulebased approaches to diagnosis has been over in the academic literature for many years, but the situation is different in industry where rule-based systems are dominant and appear to be attractive given the considerations of efficiency, embeddability, and cost effectiveness. Traditionally, industrial diagnostic systems have been handcrafted to reflect the knowledge of a domain expert. They take the form of if-then rules that associate certain forms of abnormal system behavior with faults that could have caused this behavior.