The success of machine learning, particularly in supervised settings, has led to numerous attempts to apply it in adversarial settings such as spam and malware detection. The core challenge in this class of applications is that adversaries are not static data generators, but make a deliberate effort to evade the classifiers deployed to detect them. We investigate both the problem of modeling the objectives of such adversaries, as well as the algorithmic problem of accounting for rational, objective-driven adversaries. In particular, we demonstrate severe shortcomings of feature reduction in adversarial settings using several natural adversarial objective functions, an observation that is particularly pronounced when the adversary is able to substitute across similar features (for example, replace words with synonyms or replace letters in words). We offer a simple heuristic method for making learning more robust to feature cross-substitution attacks. We then present a more general approach based on mixed-integer linear programming with constraint generation, which implicitly trades off overfitting and feature selection in an adversarial setting using a sparse regularizer along with an evasion model. Our approach is the first method for combining an adversarial classification algorithm with a very general class of models of adversarial classifier evasion. We show that our algorithmic approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives.

The beta-negative binomial process (BNBP), an integer-valued stochastic process, is employed to partition a count vector into a latent random count matrix. As the marginal probability distribution of the BNBP that governs the exchangeable random partitions of grouped data has not yet been developed, current inference for the BNBP has to truncate the number of atoms of the beta process. This paper introduces an exchangeable partition probability function to explicitly describe how the BNBP clusters the data points of each group into a random number of exchangeable partitions, which are shared across all the groups. A fully collapsed Gibbs sampler is developed for the BNBP, leading to a novel nonparametric Bayesian topic model that is distinct from existing ones, with simple implementation, fast convergence, good mixing, and state-of-the-art predictive performance.

Dynamics-based sampling methods, such as Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) and Langevin dynamics (LD), are commonly used to sample target distributions. Recently, such approaches have been combined with stochastic gradient techniques to increase sampling efficiency when dealing with large datasets. An outstanding problem with this approach is that the stochastic gradient introduces an unknown amount of noise which can prevent proper sampling after discretization. To remedy this problem, we show that one can leverage a small number of additional variables to stabilize momentum fluctuations induced by the unknown noise. Our method is inspired by the idea of a thermostat in statistical physics and is justified by a general theory.

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics. We propose a temporal point process model, COEVOLVE, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.

We define and study the problem of predicting the solution to a linear program (LP) given only partial information about its objective and constraints. This generalizes the problem of learning to predict the purchasing behavior of a rational agent who has an unknown objective function, that has been studied under the name "Learning from Revealed Preferences". We give mistake bound learning algorithms in two settings: in the first, the objective of the LP is known to the learner but there is an arbitrary, fixed set of constraints which are unknown. Each example is defined by an additional known constraint and the goal of the learner is to predict the optimal solution of the LP given the union of the known and unknown constraints. This models the problem of predicting the behavior of a rational agent whose goals are known, but whose resources are unknown. In the second setting, the objective of the LP is unknown, and changing in a controlled way. The constraints of the LP may also change every day, but are known. An example is given by a set of constraints and partial information about the objective, and the task of the learner is again to predict the optimal solution of the partially known LP.

We consider empirical risk minimization for large-scale datasets. We introduce Ada Newton as an adaptive algorithm that uses Newton's method with adaptive sample sizes. The main idea of Ada Newton is to increase the size of the training set by a factor larger than one in a way that the minimization variable for the current training set is in the local neighborhood of the optimal argument of the next training set. This allows to exploit the quadratic convergence property of Newton's method and reach the statistical accuracy of each training set with only one iteration of Newton's method. We show theoretically that we can iteratively increase the sample size while applying single Newton iterations without line search and staying within the statistical accuracy of the regularized empirical risk. In particular, we can double the size of the training set in each iteration when the number of samples is sufficiently large. Numerical experiments on various datasets confirm the possibility of increasing the sample size by factor 2 at each iteration which implies that Ada Newton achieves the statistical accuracy of the full training set with about two passes over the dataset.

Most real-world networks are too large to be measured or studied directly and there is substantial interest in estimating global network properties from smaller sub-samples. One of the most important global properties is the number of vertices/nodes in the network. Estimating the number of vertices in a large network is a major challenge in computer science, epidemiology, demography, and intelligence analysis. In this paper we consider a population random graph G = (V, E) from the stochastic block model (SBM) with K communities/blocks. A sample is obtained by randomly choosing a subset W V and letting G(W) be the induced subgraph in G of the vertices in W. In addition to G(W), we observe the total degree of each sampled vertex and its block membership.

We consider the regime where n d.

Recent work on scaling up Gaussian process regression (GPR) to large datasets has primarily focused on sparse GPR, which leverages a small set of basis functions to approximate the full Gaussian process during inference. However, the majority of these approaches are batch methods that operate on the entire training dataset at once, precluding the use of datasets that are streaming or too large to fit into memory. Although previous work has considered incrementally solving variational sparse GPR, most algorithms fail to update the basis functions and therefore perform suboptimally. We propose a novel incremental learning algorithm for variational sparse GPR based on stochastic mirror ascent of probability densities in reproducing kernel Hilbert space. This new formulation allows our algorithm to update basis functions online in accordance with the manifold structure of probability densities for fast convergence. We conduct several experiments and show that our proposed approach achieves better empirical performance in terms of prediction error than the recent state-of-the-art incremental solutions to variational sparse GPR.

Yield forecasting, the science of predicting agricultural productivity before the crop harvest occurs, helps a wide range of stakeholders make better decisions around agricultural planning. This study aims to investigate whether machine learning-based yield prediction models can capably predict Kharif season rice yields at the district level in India several months before the rice harvest takes place. The methodology involved training 19 machine learning models such as CatBoost, LightGBM, Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, and Extremely Randomized Trees on 20 years of climate, satellite, and rice yield data across 247 of Indian rice-producing districts. In addition to model-building, a dynamic dashboard was built understand how the reliability of rice yield predictions varies across districts. The results of the proof-of-concept machine learning pipeline demonstrated that rice yields can be predicted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, with out-of-sample R2, MAE, and MAPE performance of up to 0.82, 0.29, and 0.16 respectively. These results outperformed test set performance reported in related literature on rice yield modeling in other contexts and countries. In addition, SHAP value analysis was conducted to infer both the importance and directional impact of the climate and remote sensing variables included in the model. Important features driving rice yields included temperature, soil water volume, and leaf area index. In particular, higher temperatures in August correlate with increased rice yields, particularly when the leaf area index in August is also high. Building on the results, a proof-of-concept dashboard was developed to allow users to easily explore which districts may experience a rise or fall in yield relative to the previous year.