Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a fundamental tool for modelling dynamic processes, including gene regulatory networks (GRNs), contaminant transport, financial markets, and image generation. However, learning the underlying SDE from observational data is a challenging task, especially when individual trajectories are not observable. Motivated by burgeoning research in single-cell datasets, we present the first comprehensive approach for jointly estimating the drift and diffusion of an SDE from its temporal marginals. Assuming linear drift and additive diffusion, we prove that these parameters are identifiable from marginals if and only if the initial distribution is not invariant to a class of generalized rotations, a condition that is satisfied by most distributions. We further prove that the causal graph of any SDE with additive diffusion can be recovered from the SDE parameters. To complement this theory, we adapt entropy-regularized optimal transport to handle anisotropic diffusion, and introduce APPEX (Alternating Projection Parameter Estimation from $X_0$), an iterative algorithm designed to estimate the drift, diffusion, and causal graph of an additive noise SDE, solely from temporal marginals. We show that each of these steps are asymptotically optimal with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and demonstrate APPEX's effectiveness on simulated data from linear additive noise SDEs.

We study stochastic pairwise interaction network systems whereby a finite population of agents, identified with the nodes of a graph, update their states in response to both individual mutations and pairwise interactions with their neighbors. The considered class of systems include the main epidemic models -such as the SIS, SIR, and SIRS models-, certain social dynamics models -such as the voter and anti-voter models-, as well as evolutionary dynamics on graphs. Since these stochastic systems fall into the class of finite-state Markov chains, they always admit stationary distributions. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of these stationary distributions in the limit as the population size grows large while the interaction network maintains certain mixing properties. Our approach relies on the use of Lyapunov-type functions to obtain concentration results on these stationary distributions. Notably, our results are not limited to fully mixed population models, as they do apply to a much broader spectrum of interaction network structures, including, e.g., Erd\"oos-R\'enyi random graphs.

Hyperparameters are configuration variables controlling the behavior of machine learning algorithms. They are ubiquitous in machine learning and artificial intelligence and the choice of their values determine the effectiveness of systems based on these technologies. Manual hyperparameter search is often unsatisfactory and becomes unfeasible when the number of hyperparameters is large. Automating the search is an important step towards automating machine learning, freeing researchers and practitioners alike from the burden of finding a good set of hyperparameters by trial and error. In this survey, we present a unified treatment of hyperparameter optimization, providing the reader with examples and insights into the state-of-the-art. We cover the main families of techniques to automate hyperparameter search, often referred to as hyperparameter optimization or tuning, including random and quasi-random search, bandit-, model- and gradient- based approaches. We further discuss extensions, including online, constrained, and multi-objective formulations, touch upon connections with other fields such as meta-learning and neural architecture search, and conclude with open questions and future research directions.

Node regression consists in predicting the value of a graph label at a node, given observations at the other nodes. To gain some insight into the performance of various estimators for this task, we perform a theoretical study in a context where the graph is random. Specifically, we assume that the graph is generated by a Latent Position Model, where each node of the graph has a latent position, and the probability that two nodes are connected depend on the distance between the latent positions of the two nodes. In this context, we begin by studying the simplest possible estimator for graph regression, which consists in averaging the value of the label at all neighboring nodes. We show that in Latent Position Models this estimator tends to a Nadaraya-Watson estimator in the latent space, and that its rate of convergence is in fact the same. One issue with this standard estimator is that it averages over a region consisting of all neighbors of a node, and that depending on the graph model this may be too much or too little. An alternative consists in first estimating the "true" distances between the latent positions, then injecting these estimated distances into a classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. This enables averaging in regions either smaller or larger than the typical graph neighborhood. We show that this method can achieve standard nonparametric rates in certain instances even when the graph neighborhood is too large or too small.

Quantifying uncertainty in networks is an important step in modelling relationships and interactions between entities. We consider the challenge of bootstrapping an inhomogeneous random graph when only a single observation of the network is made and the underlying data generating function is unknown. We utilise an exchangeable network test that can empirically validate bootstrap samples generated by any method, by testing if the observed and bootstrapped networks are statistically distinguishable. We find that existing methods fail this test. To address this, we propose a principled, novel, distribution-free network bootstrap using k-nearest neighbour smoothing, that can regularly pass this exchangeable network test in both synthetic and real-data scenarios. We demonstrate the utility of this work in combination with the popular data visualisation method t-SNE, where uncertainty estimates from bootstrapping are used to explain whether visible structures represent real statistically sound structures.

We assume accurate observation of battery state of charge (SOC) and precise speed curves when addressing the constrained optimal fuel consumption (COFC) problem via constrained reinforcement learning (CRL). However, in practice, SOC measurements are often distorted by noise or confidentiality protocols, and actual reference speeds may deviate from expectations. We aim to minimize fuel consumption while maintaining SOC balance under observational perturbations in SOC and speed. This work first worldwide uses seven training approaches to solve the COFC problem under five types of perturbations, including one based on a uniform distribution, one designed to maximize rewards, one aimed at maximizing costs, and one along with its improved version that seeks to decrease reward on Toyota Hybrid Systems (THS) under New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) condition. The result verifies that the six can successfully solve the COFC problem under observational perturbations, and we further compare the robustness and safety of these training approaches and analyze their impact on optimal fuel consumption.

Global Trajectory Optimization Competitions (GTOC) [1] represent a biennial cornerstone event within the international aerospace community, dedicated to addressing the intricacies of interplanetary trajectory optimization. The 12th edition of this well established competition, held in June-July 2023, proposed a challenging design of a "sustainable asteroid mining" mission. The problem demanded the concurrent extraction of resources from a set A of 60,000 target asteroids, to be accomplished during a fixed 15 years wide window (from 2035-Jan-01 to 2050-Jan-01) by multiple spacecraft. The participating spacecraft, dispatched from Earth and possibly flying by Venus and Mars, had to be meticulously designed to maximize the quantity of mined material returned to our home planet. A comprehensive exposition of the mathematical intricacies underpinning the problem definition can be found in [2], while in this paper we will primarily provide essential definitions and selectively reference these mathematical foundations. For the purpose of clarity, we shall employ the term'ship' interchangeably with'spacecraft.' In the context of the multi-spacecraft asteroid mining mission presented in GTOC12, each ship possesses the capability to deploy a specified number of mining devices onto the asteroids' surface. Furthermore, these ships have the capacity to collect mined resources if a mining device is already in place on the visited asteroid. Importantly, each ship is not confined to gathering material exclusively from asteroids where it initially deposited a miner; it can collect resources from asteroids where miners were deployed by other ships.

This book provides a comprehensive introduction to the foundational concepts of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL). It bridges the gap between theoretical mathematics and practical application, focusing on Python as the primary programming language for implementing key algorithms and data structures. The book covers a wide range of topics, including basic and advanced Python programming, fundamental mathematical operations, matrix operations, linear algebra, and optimization techniques crucial for training ML and DL models. Advanced subjects like neural networks, optimization algorithms, and frequency domain methods are also explored, along with real-world applications of large language models (LLMs) and artificial intelligence (AI) in big data management. Designed for both beginners and advanced learners, the book emphasizes the critical role of mathematical principles in developing scalable AI solutions. Practical examples and Python code are provided throughout, ensuring readers gain hands-on experience in applying theoretical knowledge to solve complex problems in ML, DL, and big data analytics.

The Robbins-Siegmund theorem is one of the most important results in stochastic optimization, where it is widely used to prove the convergence of stochastic algorithms. We provide a quantitative version of the theorem, establishing a bound on how far one needs to look in order to locate a region of metastability in the sense of Tao. Our proof involves a metastable analogue of Doob's theorem for $L_1$-supermartingales along with a series of technical lemmas that make precise how quantitative information propagates through sums and products of stochastic processes. In this way, our paper establishes a general methodology for finding metastable bounds for stochastic processes that can be reduced to supermartingales, and therefore for obtaining quantitative convergence information across a broad class of stochastic algorithms whose convergence proof relies on some variation of the Robbins-Siegmund theorem. We conclude by discussing how our general quantitative result might be used in practice.

In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then, we show under which conditions the equilibrium states of a DSP, both before and after a causal intervention, can be captured by a structural causal model (SCM). With such an equivalence at hand, we provide an explicit mapping from vector autoregressive models (VARs), broadly applied in econometrics, to linear, but potentially cyclic and/or affected by unmeasured confounders, SCMs. The resulting causal VAR framework allows us to perform causal inference over time from observational time series data. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed framework achieves strong performance in terms of observational forecasting while enabling accurate estimation of the causal effect of interventions on dynamical systems. We demonstrate, through a case study, the potential practical questions that can be addressed using the proposed causal VAR framework.