In order to obtain a stochastic model that accounts for the stochastic aspects of the dynamics of a business process, usually the following steps are taken. Given an event log, a process tree is obtained through a process discovery algorithm, i.e., a process tree that is aimed at reproducing, as accurately as possible, the language of the log. The process tree is then transformed into a Petri net that generates the same set of sequences as the process tree. In order to capture the frequency of the sequences in the event log, weights are assigned to the transitions of the Petri net, resulting in a stochastic Petri net with a stochastic language in which each sequence is associated with a probability. In this paper we show that this procedure has unfavorable properties. First, the weights assigned to the transitions of the Petri net have an unclear role in the resulting stochastic language. We will show that a weight can have multiple, ambiguous impact on the probability of the sequences generated by the Petri net. Second, a number of different Petri nets with different number of transitions can correspond to the same process tree. This means that the number of parameters (the number of weights) that determines the stochastic language is not well-defined. In order to avoid these ambiguities, in this paper, we propose to add stochasticity directly to process trees. The result is a new formalism, called stochastic process trees, in which the number of parameters and their role in the associated stochastic language is clear and well-defined.

Operator learning has emerged as a powerful tool in scientific computing for approximating mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. A primary application of operator learning is the development of surrogate models for the solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs). These methods can also be used to develop black-box simulators to model system behavior from experimental data, even without a known mathematical model. In this article, we begin by formalizing operator learning as a function-to-function regression problem and review some recent developments in the field. We also discuss PDE-specific operator learning, outlining strategies for incorporating physical and mathematical constraints into architecture design and training processes. Finally, we end by highlighting key future directions such as active data collection and the development of rigorous uncertainty quantification frameworks.

We revisit the optimal transport problem over angular velocity dynamics given by the controlled Euler equation. The solution of this problem enables stochastic guidance of spin states of a rigid body (e.g., spacecraft) over hard deadline constraint by transferring a given initial state statistics to a desired terminal state statistics. This is an instance of generalized optimal transport over a nonlinear dynamical system. While prior work has reported existence-uniqueness and numerical solution of this dynamical optimal transport problem, here we present structural results about the equivalent Kantorovich a.k.a. optimal coupling formulation. Specifically, we focus on deriving the ground cost for the associated Kantorovich optimal coupling formulation. The ground cost equals to the cost of transporting unit amount of mass from a specific realization of the initial or source joint probability measure to a realization of the terminal or target joint probability measure, and determines the Kantorovich formulation. Finding the ground cost leads to solving a structured deterministic nonlinear optimal control problem, which is shown to be amenable to an analysis technique pioneered by Athans et. al. We show that such techniques have broader applicability in determining the ground cost (thus Kantorovich formulation) for a class of generalized optimal mass transport problems involving nonlinear dynamics with translated norm-invariant drift.

In recent years, proper scoring rules have emerged as a power ful general approach for estimating probability distributions. In addition to significantly ex panding the range of modeling techniques that can be applied in practice, this has also substantially broadened the conceptual understanding of estimation methods. Originally, proper scoring rules we re conceived in meteorology as summary statistics for describing the performance of probabilisti c forecasts ( Murphy and Winkler, 1984), but they also play an important role in economics as tools for bel ief elicitation ( Schotter and Trevino, 2014). A probabilistic forecast is a probability distribution ove r the space of the possible outcomes of the future event that is stated by the forecaster. The simple st and most popular case of probabilistic forecasts arises when the outcome is binary, so the probabilistic forecast reduces to issuing a predictive probability of success. Brier ( 1950) was the first to consider the problem of devising a scoring rule which could not be "played" by a dishonest fore casting agent. He introduced the quadratic scoring rule and showed that it incentivizes a for ecasting agent to state his most accurate probability estimate when faced with uncertainty.

This study investigates rare event detection on tabular data within binary classification. Standard techniques to handle class imbalance include SMOTE, which generates synthetic samples from the minority class. However, SMOTE is intrinsically designed for continuous input variables. In fact, despite SMOTE-NC-its default extension to handle mixed features (continuous and categorical variables)-very few works propose procedures to synthesize mixed features. On the other hand, many real-world classification tasks, such as in banking sector, deal with mixed features, which have a significant impact on predictive performances. To this purpose, we introduce MGS-GRF, an oversampling strategy designed for mixed features. This method uses a kernel density estimator with locally estimated full-rank covariances to generate continuous features, while categorical ones are drawn from the original samples through a generalized random forest. Empirically, contrary to SMOTE-NC, we show that MGS-GRF exhibits two important properties: (i) the coherence i.e. the ability to only generate combinations of categorical features that are already present in the original dataset and (ii) association, i.e. the ability to preserve the dependence between continuous and categorical features. We also evaluate the predictive performances of LightGBM classifiers trained on data sets, augmented with synthetic samples from various strategies. Our comparison is performed on simulated and public real-world data sets, as well as on a private data set from a leading financial institution. We observe that synthetic procedures that have the properties of coherence and association display better predictive performances in terms of various predictive metrics (PR and ROC AUC...), with MGS-GRF being the best one. Furthermore, our method exhibits promising results for the private banking application, with development pipeline being compliant with regulatory constraints.

The problems of detecting and recovering planted structures/subgraphs in Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graphs, have received significant attention over the past three decades, leading to many exciting results and mathematical techniques. However, prior work has largely focused on specific ad hoc planted structures and inferential settings, while a general theory has remained elusive. In this paper, we bridge this gap by investigating the detection of an \emph{arbitrary} planted subgraph $\Gamma = \Gamma_n$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n, q_n)$, where the edge probability within $\Gamma$ is $p_n$. We examine both the statistical and computational aspects of this problem and establish the following results. In the dense regime, where the edge probabilities $p_n$ and $q_n$ are fixed, we tightly characterize the information-theoretic and computational thresholds for detecting $\Gamma$, and provide conditions under which a computational-statistical gap arises. Most notably, these thresholds depend on $\Gamma$ only through its number of edges, maximum degree, and maximum subgraph density. Our lower and upper bounds are general and apply to any value of $p_n$ and $q_n$ as functions of $n$. Accordingly, we also analyze the sparse regime where $q_n = \Theta(n^{-\alpha})$ and $p_n-q_n =\Theta(q_n)$, with $\alpha\in[0,2]$, as well as the critical regime where $p_n=1-o(1)$ and $q_n = \Theta(n^{-\alpha})$, both of which have been widely studied, for specific choices of $\Gamma$. For these regimes, we show that our bounds are tight for all planted subgraphs investigated in the literature thus far\textemdash{}and many more. Finally, we identify conditions under which detection undergoes sharp phase transition, where the boundaries at which algorithms succeed or fail shift abruptly as a function of $q_n$.

This study presents a physics-informed machine learning-based control method for nonlinear dynamic systems with highly noisy measurements. Existing data-driven control methods that use machine learning for system identification cannot effectively cope with highly noisy measurements, resulting in unstable control performance. To address this challenge, the present study extends current physics-informed machine learning capabilities for modeling nonlinear dynamics with control and integrates them into a model predictive control framework. To demonstrate the capability of the proposed method we test and validate with two noisy nonlinear dynamic systems: the chaotic Lorenz 3 system, and turning machine tool. Analysis of the results illustrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks as measured by both modeling accuracy and control performance for nonlinear dynamic systems under high-noise conditions.

We introduce a new framework that employs Malliavin calculus to derive explicit expressions for the score function -- i.e., the gradient of the log-density -- associated with solutions to stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Our approach integrates classical integration-by-parts techniques with modern tools, such as Bismut's formula and Malliavin calculus, to address linear and nonlinear SDEs. In doing so, we establish a rigorous connection between the Malliavin derivative, its adjoint (the Malliavin divergence or the Skorokhod integral), Bismut's formula, and diffusion generative models, thus providing a systematic method for computing $\nabla \log p_t(x)$. For the linear case, we present a detailed study proving that our formula is equivalent to the actual score function derived from the solution of the Fokker--Planck equation for linear SDEs. Additionally, we derive a closed-form expression for $\nabla \log p_t(x)$ for nonlinear SDEs with state-independent diffusion coefficients. These advancements provide fresh theoretical insights into the smoothness and structure of probability densities and practical implications for score-based generative modelling, including the design and analysis of new diffusion models. Moreover, our findings promote the adoption of the robust Malliavin calculus framework in machine learning research. These results directly apply to various pure and applied mathematics fields, such as generative modelling, the study of SDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion, and the Fokker--Planck equations associated with nonlinear SDEs.

Randomization as a mean to improve the adversarial robustness of machine learning models has recently attracted significant attention. Unfortunately, much of the theoretical analysis so far has focused on binary classification, providing only limited insights into the more complex multiclass setting. In this paper, we take a step toward closing this gap by drawing inspiration from the field of graph theory. Our analysis focuses on discrete data distributions, allowing us to cast the adversarial risk minimization problems within the well-established framework of set packing problems. By doing so, we are able to identify three structural conditions on the support of the data distribution that are necessary for randomization to improve robustness. Furthermore, we are able to construct several data distributions where (contrarily to binary classification) switching from a deterministic to a randomized solution significantly reduces the optimal adversarial risk. These findings highlight the crucial role randomization can play in enhancing robustness to adversarial attacks in multiclass classification.

Motivated by the latest research on feasible space monitoring of multiple control barrier functions (CBFs) as well as polytopic collision avoidance, this paper studies the Polytope Volume Monitoring (PVM) problem, whose goal is to design a control law for inputs of nonlinear systems to prevent the volume of some state-dependent polytope from decreasing to zero. Recent studies have explored the idea of applying Chebyshev ball method in optimization theory to solve the case study of PVM; however, the underlying difficulties caused by nonsmoothness have not been addressed. This paper continues the study on this topic, where our main contribution is to establish the relationship between nonsmooth CBF and parametric optimization theory through directional derivatives for the first time, so as to solve PVM problems more conveniently. In detail, inspired by Chebyshev ball approach, a parametric linear program (PLP) based nonsmooth barrier function candidate is established for PVM, and then, sufficient conditions for it to be a nonsmooth CBF are proposed, based on which a quadratic program (QP) based safety filter with guaranteed feasibility is proposed to address PVM problems. Finally, a numerical simulation example is given to show the efficiency of the proposed safety filter.