Many signals in the real world that evolve in time can be modeled as a stochastic process with the signal randomly jumping from one state to another as time proceeds. When the signal can only exhibit a finite number of possible states, one can interpret the evolution of the signal as a random walk on a graph with vertices representing the states of the signal and edge weights giving way to the transition probabilities from one state to another. In particular, one arrives at a Markov chain representation of the signal that can be estimated using only the signal data. However, many realistic signals can take on a continuum of values, and so the goal of this work is to present a framework for modeling continuous-space stochastic signals and to identify metastable and coherent sets via clustering techniques. We present a data-driven method to learn the discrete-time transition probabilities of stochastic signals evolving in continuous space, which can be regarded as a generalization of the discrete space case considered in [25, 22]. The underlying theory is developed by evoking the concept of a graphon, which can be defined as the limit of sequences of dense networks that grow without bound [35, 34, 21, 18]. As recently shown in [43], graphons provide a well-developed framework for extending the concepts of random walks on finite graphs to stochastic processes evolving in continuous space. For example, random walks on graphs can be used to measure the centrality of vertices, and these concepts can also be extended to graphons [4]. Our goal is to identify transition probabilities, clusters, and the graphon itself from random walk data.

The sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) approach can discover the governing equations of dynamical systems based on measurement data, where the dynamical model is identified as the sparse linear combination of the given basis functions. A major challenge in SINDy is the design of a library, which is a set of candidate basis functions, as the appropriate library is not trivial for many dynamical systems. To overcome this difficulty, this study proposes SINDy with library optimization mechanism (SINDy-LOM), which is a combination of the sparse regression technique and the novel learning strategy of the library. In the proposed approach, the basis functions are parametrized. The SINDy-LOM approach involves a two-layer optimization architecture: the inner-layer, in which the data-driven model is extracted as the sparse linear combination of the candidate basis functions, and the outer-layer, in which the basis functions are optimized from the viewpoint of the recursive long-term (RLT) prediction accuracy; thus, the library design is reformulated as the optimization of the parametrized basis functions. The resulting SINDy-LOM model has good interpretability and usability, as the proposed approach yields the parsimonious model. The library optimization mechanism significantly reduces user burden. The RLT perspective improves the reliability of the resulting model compared with the traditional SINDy approach that can only ensure the one-step-ahead prediction accuracy. The validity of the proposed approach is demonstrated by applying it to a diesel engine airpath system, which is a well-known complex industrial system.

We present four open conjectures in graph theory generated by the automated conjecturing system \texttt{TxGraffiti}. Each conjecture is concise, grounded in natural graph invariants, and empirically validated across hundreds of graphs. Despite extensive effort, these statements remain unresolved--defying both proof and counterexample. They are not only mathematical challenges but creative expressions--born of symbolic pattern recognition and mathematician-defined heuristics, refined through years of human dialogue, and now offered back to the community as collaborative artifacts. These conjectures invite not only formal proof, but also reflection on how machines can evoke wonder, spark curiosity, and contribute to the raw material of discovery. By highlighting these problems, we aim to inspire both human mathematicians and AI systems to engage with them--not only to solve them, but to reflect on what it means when machines participate meaningfully in the creative process of mathematical thought.

Probabilistic graphical modeling is a branch of machine learning that uses probability distributions to describe the world, make predictions, and support decision-making under uncertainty. Underlying this modeling framework is an elegant body of theory that bridges two mathematical traditions: probability and graph theory. This framework provides compact yet expressive representations of joint probability distributions, yielding powerful generative models for probabilistic reasoning. This tutorial provides a concise introduction to the formalisms, methods, and applications of this modeling framework. After a review of basic probability and graph theory, we explore three dominant themes: (1) the representation of multivariate distributions in the intuitive visual language of graphs, (2) algorithms for learning model parameters and graphical structures from data, and (3) algorithms for inference, both exact and approximate.

The distribution closeness testing (DCT) assesses whether the distance between a distribution pair is at least $ε$-far. Existing DCT methods mainly measure discrepancies between a distribution pair defined on discrete one-dimensional spaces (e.g., using total variation), which limits their applications to complex data (e.g., images). To extend DCT to more types of data, a natural idea is to introduce maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), a powerful measurement of the distributional discrepancy between two complex distributions, into DCT scenarios. However, we find that MMD's value can be the same for many pairs of distributions that have different norms in the same reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), making MMD less informative when assessing the closeness levels for multiple distribution pairs. To mitigate the issue, we design a new measurement of distributional discrepancy, norm-adaptive MMD (NAMMD), which scales MMD's value using the RKHS norms of distributions. Based on the asymptotic distribution of NAMMD, we finally propose the NAMMD-based DCT to assess the closeness levels of a distribution pair. Theoretically, we prove that NAMMD-based DCT has higher test power compared to MMD-based DCT, with bounded type-I error, which is also validated by extensive experiments on many types of data (e.g., synthetic noise, real images). Furthermore, we also apply the proposed NAMMD for addressing the two-sample testing problem and find NAMMD-based two-sample test has higher test power than the MMD-based two-sample test in both theory and experiments.

Following the recent push for trustworthy AI, there has been an increasing interest in developing contrastive explanation techniques for optimisation, especially concerning the solution of specific decision-making processes formalised as MILPs. Along these lines, we propose X-MILP, a domain-agnostic approach for building contrastive explanations for MILPs based on constraint reasoning techniques. First, we show how to encode the queries a user makes about the solution of an MILP problem as additional constraints. Then, we determine the reasons that constitute the answer to the user's query by computing the Irreducible Infeasible Subsystem (IIS) of the newly obtained set of constraints. Finally, we represent our explanation as a "graph of reasons" constructed from the IIS, which helps the user understand the structure among the reasons that answer their query. We test our method on instances of well-known optimisation problems to evaluate the empirical hardness of computing explanations.

We provide new high-accuracy randomized algorithms for solving linear systems and regression problems that are well-conditioned except for $k$ large singular values. For solving such $d \times d$ positive definite system our algorithms succeed whp. and run in time $\tilde O(d^2 + k^ω)$. For solving such regression problems in a matrix $\mathbf{A} \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$ our methods succeed whp. and run in time $\tilde O(\mathrm{nnz}(\mathbf{A}) + d^2 + k^ω)$ where $ω$ is the matrix multiplication exponent and $\mathrm{nnz}(\mathbf{A})$ is the number of non-zeros in $\mathbf{A}$. Our methods nearly-match a natural complexity limit under dense inputs for these problems and improve upon a trade-off in prior approaches that obtain running times of either $\tilde O(d^{2.065}+k^ω)$ or $\tilde O(d^2 + dk^{ω-1})$ for $d\times d$ systems. Moreover, we show how to obtain these running times even under the weaker assumption that all but $k$ of the singular values have a suitably bounded generalized mean. Consequently, we give the first nearly-linear time algorithm for computing a multiplicative approximation to the nuclear norm of an arbitrary dense matrix. Our algorithms are built on three general recursive preconditioning frameworks, where matrix sketching and low-rank update formulas are carefully tailored to the problems' structure.

Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) is a powerful tool for addressing a wide range of real-world problems, but it lacks a clear structure for comparing instances. A reliable similarity metric could establish meaningful relationships between instances, enabling more effective evaluation of instance set heterogeneity and providing better guidance to solvers, particularly when machine learning is involved. Existing similarity metrics often lack precision in identifying instance classes or rely heavily on labeled data, which limits their applicability and generalization. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces the first mathematical distance metric for MILP instances, derived directly from their mathematical formulations. By discretizing right-hand sides, weights, and variables into classes, the proposed metric draws inspiration from the Earth mover's distance to quantify mismatches in weight-variable distributions for constraint comparisons. This approach naturally extends to enable instance-level comparisons. We evaluate both an exact and a greedy variant of our metric under various parameter settings, using the StrIPLIB dataset. Results show that all components of the metric contribute to class identification, and that the greedy version achieves accuracy nearly identical to the exact formulation while being nearly 200 times faster. Compared to state-of-the-art baselines--including feature-based, image-based, and neural network models--our unsupervised method consistently outperforms all non-learned approaches and rivals the performance of a supervised classifier on class and subclass grouping tasks.

We study the Shortest-Walk Problem (SWP) in a Graph of Convex Sets (GCS). A GCS is a graph where each vertex is paired with a convex program, and each edge couples adjacent programs via additional costs and constraints. A walk in a GCS is a sequence of vertices connected by edges, where vertices may be repeated. The length of a walk is given by the cumulative optimal value of the corresponding convex programs. To solve the SWP in GCS, we first synthesize a piecewise-quadratic lower bound on the problem's cost-to-go function using semidefinite programming. Then we use this lower bound to guide an incremental-search algorithm that yields an approximate shortest walk. We show that the SWP in GCS is a natural language for many mixed discrete-continuous planning problems in robotics, unifying problems that typically require specialized solutions while delivering high performance and computational efficiency. We demonstrate this through experiments in collision-free motion planning, skill chaining, and optimal control of hybrid systems.

We prove a novel and general result on the asymptotic behavior of stochastic processes which conform to a certain relaxed supermartingale condition. Our result provides quantitative information in the form of an explicit and effective construction of a rate of convergence for this process, both in mean and almost surely, that is moreover highly uniform in that it only depends on very few data of the surrounding objects involved in the iteration. We then apply this result to derive new quantitative versions of well-known concepts and theorems from stochastic approximation, in particular providing effective rates for a variant of the Robbins-Siegmund theorem, Dvoretzky's convergence theorem, as well as the convergence of stochastic quasi-Fejér monotone sequences, the latter of which formulated in a novel and highly general metric context. We utilize the classic and widely studied Robbins-Monro procedure as a template to evaluate our quantitative results and their applicability in greater detail. We conclude by illustrating the breadth of potential further applications with a brief discussion on a variety of other well-known iterative procedures from stochastic approximation. Throughout, we isolate and discuss special cases of our results which allow for the construction of fast, and in particular linear, rates.