Law enforcement agencies frequently must allocate limited resources to protect targets embedded in a network, such as important buildings in a city road network. Since intelligent attackers may observe and exploit patterns in the allocation, it is crucial that the allocations be randomized. We cast this problem as an attacker-defender Stackelberg game: the defender’s goal is to obtain an optimal mixed strategy for allocating resources. The defender’s strategy space is exponential in the number of resources, and the attacker’s exponential in the network size. Existing algorithms are therefore useless for all but the smallest networks. We present a solution approach based on two key ideas: (i) A polynomial-sized game model obtained via an approximation of the strategy space, solved efficiently using a linear program; (ii) Two efficient techniques that map solutions from the approximate game to the original, with proofs of correctness under certain assumptions. We present in-depth experimental results, including an evaluation on part of the Mumbai road network.

Approximate dynamic programming has been used successfully in a large variety of domains, but it relies on a small set of provided approximation features to calculate solutions reliably. Large and rich sets of features can cause existing algorithms to overfit because of a limited number of samples. We address this shortcoming using $L_1$ regularization in approximate linear programming. Because the proposed method can automatically select the appropriate richness of features, its performance does not degrade with an increasing number of features. These results rely on new and stronger sampling bounds for regularized approximate linear programs. We also propose a computationally efficient homotopy method. The empirical evaluation of the approach shows that the proposed method performs well on simple MDPs and standard benchmark problems.

We present a novel linear program for the approximation of the dynamic programming cost-to-go function in high-dimensional stochastic control problems. LP approaches to approximate DP naturally restrict attention to approximations that are lower bounds to the optimal cost-to-go function. Our program -- the `smoothed approximate linear program -- relaxes this restriction in an appropriate fashion while remaining computationally tractable. Doing so appears to have several advantages: First, we demonstrate superior bounds on the quality of approximation to the optimal cost-to-go function afforded by our approach. Second, experiments with our approach on a challenging problem (the game of Tetris) show that the approach outperforms the existing LP approach (which has previously been shown to be competitive with several ADP algorithms) by an order of magnitude.

We present a multi-label multiple kernel learning (MKL) formulation, in which the data are embedded into a low-dimensional space directed by the instance-label correlations encoded into a hypergraph. We formulate the problem in the kernel-induced feature space and propose to learn the kernel matrix as a linear combination of a given collection of kernel matrices in the MKL framework. The proposed learning formulation leads to a non-smooth min-max problem, and it can be cast into a semi-infinite linear program (SILP). We further propose an approximate formulation with a guaranteed error bound which involves an unconstrained and convex optimization problem. In addition, we show that the objective function of the approximate formulation is continuously differentiable with Lipschitz gradient, and hence existing methods can be employed to compute the optimal solution efficiently. We apply the proposed formulation to the automated annotation of Drosophila gene expression pattern images, and promising results have been reported in comparison with representative algorithms.

We investigate how well Gaussian process regression can learn functions defined on graphs, using large regular random graphs as a paradigmatic example. Random-walk based kernels are shown to have some surprising properties: within the standard approximation of a locally tree-like graph structure, the kernel does not become constant, i.e.neighbouring function values do not become fully correlated, when the lengthscale $\sigma$ of the kernel is made large. Instead the kernel attains a non-trivial limiting form, which we calculate. The fully correlated limit is reached only once loops become relevant, and we estimate where the crossover to this regime occurs. Our main subject are learning curves of Bayes error versus training set size. We show that these are qualitatively well predicted by a simple approximation using only the spectrum of a large tree as input, and generically scale with $n/V$, the number of training examples per vertex. We also explore how this behaviour changes once kernel lengthscales are large enough for loops to become important.

Networks are ubiquitous in science and have become a focal point for discussion in everyday life. Formal statistical models for the analysis of network data have emerged as a major topic of interest in diverse areas of study, and most of these involve a form of graphical representation. Probability models on graphs date back to 1959. Along with empirical studies in social psychology and sociology from the 1960s, these early works generated an active network community and a substantial literature in the 1970s. This effort moved into the statistical literature in the late 1970s and 1980s, and the past decade has seen a burgeoning network literature in statistical physics and computer science. The growth of the World Wide Web and the emergence of online networking communities such as Facebook, MySpace, and LinkedIn, and a host of more specialized professional network communities has intensified interest in the study of networks and network data. Our goal in this review is to provide the reader with an entry point to this burgeoning literature. We begin with an overview of the historical development of statistical network modeling and then we introduce a number of examples that have been studied in the network literature. Our subsequent discussion focuses on a number of prominent static and dynamic network models and their interconnections. We emphasize formal model descriptions, and pay special attention to the interpretation of parameters and their estimation. We end with a description of some open problems and challenges for machine learning and statistics.

In this paper we propose some novel path planning strategies for a double integrator with bounded velocity and bounded control inputs. First, we study the following version of the Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP): given a set of points in $\real^d$, find the fastest tour over the point set for a double integrator. We first give asymptotic bounds on the time taken to complete such a tour in the worst-case. Then, we study a stochastic version of the TSP for double integrator where the points are randomly sampled from a uniform distribution in a compact environment in $\real^2$ and $\real^3$. We propose novel algorithms that perform within a constant factor of the optimal strategy with high probability. Lastly, we study a dynamic TSP: given a stochastic process that generates targets, is there a policy which guarantees that the number of unvisited targets does not diverge over time? If such stable policies exist, what is the minimum wait for a target? We propose novel stabilizing receding-horizon algorithms whose performances are within a constant factor from the optimum with high probability, in $\real^2$ as well as $\real^3$. We also argue that these algorithms give identical performances for a particular nonholonomic vehicle, Dubins vehicle.

W e define a class of probabilistic models in terms of an operat or algebra of stochastic processes, and a representation for this class in terms of stochastic param eterized grammars. A syntactic specification of a grammar is mapped to semantics given in terms of a rin g of operators, so that grammatical composition corresponds to operator addition or multiplic ation. The operators are generators for the time-evolution of stochastic processes. Within this mo deling framework one can express data clustering models, logic programs, ordinary and stochasti c differential equations, graph grammars, and stochastic chemical reaction kinetics. This mathemati cal formulation connects these apparently distant fields to one another and to mathematical methods fro m quantum field theory and operator algebra.

The successful development of neural prostheses requires an understanding of the neurobiological bases of cognitive processes, i.e., how the collective activity of populations of neurons results in a higher-level process not predictable based on knowledge of the individual neurons and/or synapses alone. We have been studying and applying novel methods for representing nonlinear transformations of multiple spike train inputs (multiple time series of pulse train inputs) produced by synaptic and field interactions among multiple subclasses of neurons arrayed in multiple layers of incompletely connected units.

We present the nested Chinese restaurant process (nCRP), a stochastic process which assigns probability distributions to infinitely-deep, infinitely-branching trees. We show how this stochastic process can be used as a prior distribution in a Bayesian nonparametric model of document collections. Specifically, we present an application to information retrieval in which documents are modeled as paths down a random tree, and the preferential attachment dynamics of the nCRP leads to clustering of documents according to sharing of topics at multiple levels of abstraction. Given a corpus of documents, a posterior inference algorithm finds an approximation to a posterior distribution over trees, topics and allocations of words to levels of the tree. We demonstrate this algorithm on collections of scientific abstracts from several journals. This model exemplifies a recent trend in statistical machine learning--the use of Bayesian nonparametric methods to infer distributions on flexible data structures.