Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is a fundamental class of NP-hard problems that has garnered significant attention from both academia and industry. The Branch-and-Bound (B\&B) method is the dominant approach for solving MILPs and the branching plays an important role in B\&B methods. Neural-based learning frameworks have recently been developed to enhance branching policies and the efficiency of solving MILPs. However, these methods still struggle with semantic variation across depths, the scarcity of upstream nodes, and the costly collection of strong branching samples. To address these issues, we propose \ours, a Dynamic \underline{\textbf{S}}tratified \underline{\textbf{C}}ontrastive Training Framework for \underline{\textbf{MILP}} Branching. It groups branch-and-bound nodes based on their feature distributions and trains a GCNN-based discriminative model to progressively separate nodes across groups, learning finer-grained node representations throughout the tree. To address data scarcity and imbalance at upstream nodes, we introduce an upstream-augmented MILP derivation procedure that generates both theoretically equivalent and perturbed instances. \ours~effectively models subtle semantic differences between nodes, significantly enhancing branching accuracy and solving efficiency, particularly for upstream nodes. Extensive experiments on standard MILP benchmarks demonstrate that our method enhances branching accuracy, reduces solving time, and generalizes effectively to unseen instances.

Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes are ubiquitously used in economics, finance, and biology. Order selection is an essential step in fitting VAR models. While many order selection methods exist, all come with weaknesses. Order selection by minimizing AIC is a popular approach but is known to consistently overestimate the true order for processes of small dimension. On the other hand, methods based on BIC or the Hannan-Quinn (HQ) criteria are shown to require large sample sizes in order to accurately estimate the order for larger-dimensional processes. We propose the mean square information criterion (MIC) based on the observation that the expected squared error loss is flat once the fitted order reaches or exceeds the true order. MIC is shown to consistently estimate the order of the process under relatively mild conditions. Our simulation results show that MIC offers better performance relative to AIC, BIC, and HQ under misspecification. This advantage is corroborated when forecasting COVID-19 outcomes in New York City. Order selection by MIC is implemented in the micvar R package available on CRAN.

Decentralized learning often involves a weighted global loss with heterogeneous node weights $λ$. We revisit two natural strategies for incorporating these weights: (i) embedding them into the local losses to retain a uniform weight (and thus a doubly stochastic matrix), and (ii) keeping the original losses while employing a $λ$-induced row-stochastic matrix. Although prior work shows that both strategies yield the same expected descent direction for the global loss, it remains unclear whether the Euclidean-space guarantees are tight and what fundamentally differentiates their behaviors. To clarify this, we develop a weighted Hilbert-space framework $L^2(λ;\mathbb{R}^d)$ and obtain convergence rates that are strictly tighter than those from Euclidean analysis. In this geometry, the row-stochastic matrix becomes self-adjoint whereas the doubly stochastic one does not, creating additional penalty terms that amplify consensus error, thereby slowing convergence. Consequently, the difference in convergence arises not only from spectral gaps but also from these penalty terms. We then derive sufficient conditions under which the row-stochastic design converges faster even with a smaller spectral gap. Finally, by using a Rayleigh-quotient and Loewner-order eigenvalue comparison, we further obtain topology conditions that guarantee this advantage and yield practical topology-design guidelines.

We study the problem of matching correlated VAR time series databases, where a multivariate time series is observed along with a perturbed and permuted version, and the goal is to recover the unknown matching between them. To model this, we introduce a probabilistic framework in which two time series $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are jointly generated, such that $x^\#_t=x_{π^*(t)}+σ\tilde{x}_{π^*(t)}$, where $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(\tilde{x}_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are independent and identically distributed vector autoregressive (VAR) time series of order $1$ with Gaussian increments, for a hidden $π^*$. The objective is to recover $π^*$, from the observation of $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$. This generalizes the classical problem of matching independent point clouds to the time series setting. We derive the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), leading to a quadratic optimization over permutations, and theoretically analyze an estimator based on linear assignment. For the latter approach, we establish recovery guarantees, identifying thresholds for $σ$ that allow for perfect or partial recovery. Additionally, we propose solving the MLE by considering convex relaxations of the set of permutation matrices (e.g., over the Birkhoff polytope). This allows for efficient estimation of $π^*$ and the VAR parameters via alternating minimization. Empirically, we find that linear assignment often matches or outperforms MLE relaxation based approaches.

Many data-driven algorithms in dynamical systems rely on ergodic averages that converge painfully slowly. One simple idea changes this: taper the ends. Weighted Birkhoff averages can converge much faster (sometimes superpolynomially, even exponentially) and can be incorporated seamlessly into existing methods. We demonstrate this with five weighted algorithms: weighted Dynamic Mode Decomposition (wtDMD), weighted Extended DMD (wtEDMD), weighted Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (wtSINDy), weighted spectral measure estimation, and weighted diffusion forecasting. Across examples ranging from fluid flows to El Niño data, the message is clear: weighting costs nothing, is easy to implement, and often delivers markedly better results from the same data.

Premium automotive manufacturers face increasingly complex forecasting challenges due to high product variety, sparse variant-level data, and volatile market dynamics. This study addresses monthly automobile demand forecasting across a multi-product, multi-market, and multi-level hierarchy using data from a German premium manufacturer. The methodology combines point and probabilistic forecasts across strategic and operational planning levels, leveraging ensembles of LightGBM models with pooled training sets, quantile regression, and a mixed-integer linear programming reconciliation approach. Results highlight that spatiotemporal dependencies, as well as rounding bias, significantly affect forecast accuracy, underscoring the importance of integer forecasts for operational feasibility. Shapley analysis shows that short-term demand is reactive, shaped by life cycle maturity, autoregressive momentum, and operational signals, whereas medium-term demand reflects anticipatory drivers such as online engagement, planning targets, and competitive indicators, with online behavioral data considerably improving accuracy at disaggregated levels.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in statistical applications in the natural sciences, and more recently in machine learning. Inference for these models typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, and can suffer from various computational challenges. In this work, we propose a novel collapsed variational inference algorithm to address this issue. Our work leverages ideas from discrete-time Markov chains, and exploits a connection between these two through an idea called uniformization.

This paper takes a step towards temporal reasoning in a dynamically changing video, not in the pixel space that constitutes its frames, but in a latent space that describes the non-linear dynamics of the objects in its world. We introduce the Kalman variational auto-encoder, a framework for unsupervised learning of sequential data that disentangles two latent representations: an object's representation, coming from a recognition model, and a latent state describing its dynamics. As a result, the evolution of the world can be imagined and missing data imputed, both without the need to generate high dimensional frames at each time step. The model is trained end-to-end on videos of a variety of simulated physical systems, and outperforms competing methods in generative and missing data imputation tasks.

We consider the problem of finding the minimizer of a convex function $F: \mathbb R^d \rightarrow \mathbb R$ of the form $F(w) \defeq \sum_{i=1}^n f_i(w) + R(w)$ where a low-rank factorization of $\nabla^2 f_i(w)$ is readily available.We consider the regime where $n \gg d$. We propose randomized Newton-type algorithms that exploit \textit{non-uniform} sub-sampling of $\{\nabla^2 f_i(w)\}_{i=1}^{n}$, as well as inexact updates, as means to reduce the computational complexity, and are applicable to a wide range of problems in machine learning. Two non-uniform sampling distributions based on {\it block norm squares} and {\it block partial leverage scores} are considered. Under certain assumptions, we show that our algorithms inherit a linear-quadratic convergence rate in $w$ and achieve a lower computational complexity compared to similar existing methods. In addition, we show that our algorithms exhibit more robustness and better dependence on problem specific quantities, such as the condition number. We numerically demonstrate the advantages of our algorithms on several real datasets.

Discovering statistical structure from links is a fundamental problem in the analysis of social networks. Choosing a misspecified model, or equivalently, an incorrect inference algorithm will result in an invalid analysis or even falsely uncover patterns that are in fact artifacts of the model. This work focuses on unifying two of the most widely used link-formation models: the stochastic blockmodel (SBM) and the small world (or latent space) model (SWM). Integrating techniques from kernel learning, spectral graph theory, and nonlinear dimensionality reduction, we develop the first statistically sound polynomial-time algorithm to discover latent patterns in sparse graphs for both models. When the network comes from an SBM, the algorithm outputs a block structure. When it is from an SWM, the algorithm outputs estimates of each node's latent position.