We study learning curves for Gaussian process regression which characterise performance in terms of the Bayes error averaged over datasets of a given size. Whilst learning curves are in general very difficult to calculate we show that for discrete input domains, where similarity between input points is characterised in terms of a graph, accurate predictions can be obtained. These should in fact become exact for large graphs drawn from a broad range of random graph ensembles with arbitrary degree distributions where each input (node) is connected only to a finite number of others. The method is based on translating the appropriate belief propagation equations to the graph ensemble. We demonstrate the accuracy of the predictions for Poisson (Erdos-Renyi) and regular random graphs, and discuss when and why previous approximations to the learning curve fail.

We investigate how well Gaussian process regression can learn functions defined on graphs, using large regular random graphs as a paradigmatic example. Random-walk based kernels are shown to have some surprising properties: within the standard approximation of a locally tree-like graph structure, the kernel does not become constant, i.e.neighbouring function values do not become fully correlated, when the lengthscale $\sigma$ of the kernel is made large. Instead the kernel attains a non-trivial limiting form, which we calculate. The fully correlated limit is reached only once loops become relevant, and we estimate where the crossover to this regime occurs. Our main subject are learning curves of Bayes error versus training set size.

We present a fast online solver for large scale maximum-flow problems as they occur in portfolio optimization, inventory management, computer vision, and logistics. Our algorithm solves an integer linear program in an online fashion. It exploits total unimodularity of the constraint matrix and a Lagrangian relaxation to solve the problem as a convex online game. The algorithm generates approximate solutions of max-flow problems by performing stochastic gradient descent on a set of flows. We apply the algorithm to optimize tier arrangement of over 80 Million web pages on a layered set of caches to serve an incoming query stream optimally. We provide an empirical demonstration of the effectiveness of our method on real query-pages data.

We present a novel linear program for the approximation of the dynamic programming cost-to-go function in high-dimensional stochastic control problems. LP approaches to approximate DP naturally restrict attention to approximations that are lower bounds to the optimal cost-to-go function. Our program -- the smoothed approximate linear program -- relaxes this restriction in an appropriate fashion while remaining computationally tractable. Doing so appears to have several advantages: First, we demonstrate superior bounds on the quality of approximation to the optimal cost-to-go function afforded by our approach. Second, experiments with our approach on a challenging problem (the game of Tetris) show that the approach outperforms the existing LP approach (which has previously been shown to be competitive with several ADP algorithms) by an order of magnitude.

We propose a new stochastic gradient method for optimizing the sum of a finite set of smooth functions, where the sum is strongly convex. While standard stochastic gradient methods converge at sublinear rates for this problem, the proposed method incorporates a memory of previous gradient values in order to achieve a linear convergence rate. In a machine learning context, numerical experiments indicate that the new algorithm can dramatically outperform standard algorithms, both in terms of optimizing the training error and reducing the test error quickly. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

This paper describes a new approach for computing nonnegative matrix factorizations (NMFs) with linear programming. The key idea is a data-driven model for the factorization, in which the most salient features in the data are used to express the remaining features. More precisely, given a data matrix X, the algorithm identifies a matrix C that satisfies X CX and some linear constraints. The matrix C selects features, which are then used to compute a low-rank NMF of X. A theoretical analysis demonstrates that this approach has the same type of guarantees as the recent NMF algorithm of Arora et al. (2012).

Non-linear dynamical systems (DS) have been used extensively for building generative models of human behavior. Its applications range from modeling brain dynamics to encoding motor commands. Many schemes have been proposed for encoding robot motions using dynamical systems with a single attractor placed at a predefined target in state space. Although these enable the robots to react against sudden perturbations without any re-planning, the motions are always directed towards a single target. In this work, we focus on combining several such DS with distinct attractors, resulting in a multi-stable DS.

Many nonparametric regressors were recently shown to converge at rates that depend only on the intrinsic dimension of data. These regressors thus escape the curse of dimension when high-dimensional data has low intrinsic dimension (e.g. a manifold). We show that $k$-NN regression is also adaptive to intrinsic dimension. In particular our rates are local to a query $x$ and depend only on the way masses of balls centered at $x$ vary with radius. Furthermore, we show a simple way to choose $k k(x)$ locally at any $x$ so as to nearly achieve the minimax rate at $x$ in terms of the unknown intrinsic dimension in the vicinity of $x$.

The application of the maximum entropy principle to sequence modeling has been popularized by methods such as Conditional Random Fields (CRFs). However, these approaches are generally limited to modeling paths in discrete spaces of low dimensionality. We consider the problem of modeling distributions over paths in continuous spaces of high dimensionality---a problem for which inference is generally intractable. Our main contribution is to show that maximum entropy modeling of high-dimensional, continuous paths is tractable as long as the constrained features possess a certain kind of low dimensional structure. In this case, we show that the associated {\em partition function} is symmetric and that this symmetry can be exploited to compute the partition function efficiently in a compressed form.

Backpropagation and the chain rule of derivatives have been prominent; however, the total derivative rule has not enjoyed the same amount of attention. In this work we show how the total derivative rule leads to an intuitive visual framework for creating gradient estimators on graphical models. In particular, previous "policy gradient theorems" are easily derived. We derive new gradient estimators based on density estimation, as well as a likelihood ratio gradient, which "jumps" to an intermediate node, not directly to the objective function. We evaluate our methods on model-based policy gradient algorithms, achieve good performance, and present evidence towards demystifying the success of the popular PILCO algorithm.