The current work is motivated by the need for robust statistical methods for precision medicine; as such, we address the need for statistical methods that provide actionable inference for a single unit at any point in time. We aim to learn an optimal, unknown choice of the controlled components of the design in order to optimize the expected outcome; with that, we adapt the randomization mechanism for future time-point experiments based on the data collected on the individual over time. Our results demonstrate that one can learn the optimal rule based on a single sample, and thereby adjust the design at any point t with valid inference for the mean target parameter. This work provides several contributions to the field of statistical precision medicine. First, we define a general class of averages of conditional causal parameters defined by the current context for the single unit time-series data. We define a nonparametric model for the probability distribution of the time-series under few assumptions, and aim to fully utilize the sequential randomization in the estimation procedure via the double robust structure of the efficient influence curve of the proposed target parameter. We present multiple exploration-exploitation strategies for assigning treatment, and methods for estimating the optimal rule. Lastly, we present the study of the data-adaptive inference on the mean under the optimal treatment rule, where the target parameter adapts over time in response to the observed context of the individual. Our target parameter is pathwise differentiable with an efficient influence function that is doubly robust - which makes it easier to estimate than previously proposed variations. We characterize the limit distribution of our estimator under a Donsker condition expressed in terms of a notion of bracketing entropy adapted to martingale settings.

This paper studies the problem of recovering the hidden vertex correspondence between two edge-correlated random graphs. We focus on the Gaussian model where the two graphs are complete graphs with correlated Gaussian weights and the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi model where the two graphs are subsampled from a common parent Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. For dense graphs with $p=n^{-o(1)}$, we prove that there exists a sharp threshold, above which one can correctly match all but a vanishing fraction of vertices and below which correctly matching any positive fraction is impossible, a phenomenon known as the "all-or-nothing" phase transition. Even more strikingly, in the Gaussian setting, above the threshold all vertices can be exactly matched with high probability. In contrast, for sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs with $p=n^{-\Theta(1)}$, we show that the all-or-nothing phenomenon no longer holds and we determine the thresholds up to a constant factor. Along the way, we also derive the sharp threshold for exact recovery, sharpening the existing results in Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs. The proof of the negative results builds upon a tight characterization of the mutual information based on the truncated second-moment computation and an "area theorem" that relates the mutual information to the integral of the reconstruction error. The positive results follows from a tight analysis of the maximum likelihood estimator that takes into account the cycle structure of the induced permutation on the edges.

Long before the recent popularity of instrumental variables in modern machine learning causal inference and biostatistics, the instrumental variables technique has been widely used in economics. For instance, instrumental variables regressions are frequently used to account for omitted variables, mis-measured regressors, endogeneity in simultaneous equations and other complex situations in observational data. In economics and other social sciences, as well as in medical research, it is very difficult to estimate causal effects using observational data sets alone. When treatment assignment is not randomized, it is generally impossible to discern between the causal effect of treatments and spurious correlations that are induced by unobserved factors. Instrumental variables are commonly used to provide exogenous variation that is associated with the treatment status, but not with the outcome variable (beyond its direct effect on the treatments). To avoid mis-specification of parametric functional forms, the nonparametric instrumental variables regressions (NPIV) have gained popularity in econometrics and modern causal inference in statistics and machine learning.

Graph matching, also known as network alignment, refers to finding a bijection between the vertex sets of two given graphs so as to maximally align their edges. This fundamental computational problem arises frequently in multiple fields such as computer vision and biology. Recently, there has been a plethora of work studying efficient algorithms for graph matching under probabilistic models. In this work, we propose a new algorithm for graph matching and show that, for two Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs with edge correlation $1-\alpha$, our algorithm recovers the underlying matching with high probability when $\alpha \le 1 / (\log \log n)^C$, where $n$ is the number of vertices in each graph and $C$ denotes a positive universal constant. This improves the condition $\alpha \le 1 / (\log n)^C$ achieved in previous work.

We present the $U$-Statistic Permutation (USP) test of independence in the context of discrete data displayed in a contingency table. Either Pearson's chi-squared test of independence, or the $G$-test, are typically used for this task, but we argue that these tests have serious deficiencies, both in terms of their inability to control the size of the test, and their power properties. By contrast, the USP test is guaranteed to control the size of the test at the nominal level for all sample sizes, has no issues with small (or zero) cell counts, and is able to detect distributions that violate independence in only a minimal way. The test statistic is derived from a $U$-statistic estimator of a natural population measure of dependence, and we prove that this is the unique minimum variance unbiased estimator of this population quantity. The practical utility of the USP test is demonstrated on both simulated data, where its power can be dramatically greater than those of Pearson's test and the $G$-test, and on real data. The USP test is implemented in the R package USP.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) now serves as one of the major strategies to perform model choice and parameter inference on models with intractable likelihoods. An essential component of ABC involves comparing a large amount of simulated data with the observed data through summary statistics. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, summary statistic selection is of prime importance, and becomes even more critical when applying ABC to mechanistic network models. Indeed, while many summary statistics can be used to encode network structures, their computational complexity can be highly variable. For large networks, computation of summary statistics can quickly create a bottleneck, making the use of ABC difficult. To reduce this computational burden and make the analysis of mechanistic network models more practical, we investigated two questions in a model choice framework. First, we studied the utility of cost-based filter selection methods to account for different summary costs during the selection process. Second, we performed selection using networks generated with a smaller number of nodes to reduce the time required for the selection step. Our findings show that computationally inexpensive summary statistics can be efficiently selected with minimal impact on classification accuracy. Furthermore, we found that networks with a smaller number of nodes can only be employed to eliminate a moderate number of summaries. While this latter finding is network specific, the former is general and can be adapted to any ABC application.

In the study of large random systems, researchers often need to simulate dynamics in the form of iterated matrix-vector multiplications interspersed with nonlinear operations. Examples include message passing algorithms, gradient descent, and matrix iterative methods for extremal eigenvalue calculations. This paper proposes a new algorithm, named Householder Dice (HD), for simulating such dynamics on several random matrix ensembles with translation-invariant properties. Examples include the Gaussian ensemble, the Haar-distributed random orthogonal ensemble, and their complex-valued counterparts. A "direct" approach to the simulation, where one first generates a dense $n \times n$ matrix from the ensemble, requires at least $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ resource in space and time. The HD algorithm overcomes this $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ bottleneck by using the principle of deferred decisions: rather than fixing the entire random matrix in advance, it lets the randomness unfold with the dynamics. Key to this matrix-free construction is an adaptive and recursive construction of (random) Householder reflectors. These orthogonal transformations exploit the group symmetry of the matrix ensembles, while simultaneously maintaining the statistical correlations induced by the dynamics. The memory and computation costs of the HD algorithm are $\mathcal{O}(nT)$ and $\mathcal{O}(nT^2)$, respectively, with $T$ being the number of iterations. When $T \ll n$, which is nearly always the case in practice, the HD algorithm leads to significant reductions in runtime and memory footprint. Numerical results demonstrate the promise of the new algorithm as a new computational tool in the study of high-dimensional random systems.

Social network analysis is the process of investigating social structures through the use of networks and graph theory. This article introduces data scientists to the theory of social networks, with a short introduction to graph theory and information spread. It dives into Python code with NetworkX constructing and implying social networks from real datasets. We'll start with a brief intro in network's basic components: nodes and edges. Nodes (A,B,C,D,E in the example) are usually representing entities in the network, and can hold self-properties (such as weight, size, position and any other attribute) and network-based properties (such as Degree- number of neighbours or Cluster- a connected component the node belongs to etc.).

Learning the continuous equations of motion from discrete observations is a common task in all areas of physics. However, not any discretization of a Gaussian continuous-time stochastic process can be adopted in parametric inference. We show that discretizations yielding consistent estimators have the property of `invariance under coarse-graining', and correspond to fixed points of a renormalization group map on the space of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models (for linear processes). This result explains why combining differencing schemes for derivatives reconstruction and local-in-time inference approaches does not work for time series analysis of second or higher order stochastic differential equations, even if the corresponding integration schemes may be acceptably good for numerical simulations.

Recently, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) has developed as a means to mathematically model the structure of large flexible engineering systems. In that regard, it intellectually resembles a fusion of network science and model-based systems engineering. With respect to the former, it relies on multiple graphs as data structures so as to support matrix-based quantitative analysis. In the meantime, HFGT explicitly embodies the heterogeneity of conceptual and ontological constructs found in model-based systems engineering including system form, system function, and system concept. At their foundation, these disparate conceptual constructs suggest multi-dimensional rather than two-dimensional relationships. This paper provides the first tensor-based treatment of some of the most important parts of hetero-functional graph theory. In particular, it addresses the "system concept", the hetero-functional adjacency matrix, and the hetero-functional incidence tensor. The tensor-based formulation described in this work makes a stronger tie between HFGT and its ontological foundations in MBSE. Finally, the tensor-based formulation facilitates an understanding of the relationships between HFGT and multi-layer networks.