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 Mathematical & Statistical Methods


Bilevel Optimization for Feature Selection in the Data-Driven Newsvendor Problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the feature-based newsvendor problem, in which a decision-maker has access to historical data consisting of demand observations and exogenous features. In this setting, we investigate feature selection, aiming to derive sparse, explainable models with improved out-of-sample performance. Up to now, state-of-the-art methods utilize regularization, which penalizes the number of selected features or the norm of the solution vector. As an alternative, we introduce a novel bilevel programming formulation. The upper-level problem selects a subset of features that minimizes an estimate of the out-of-sample cost of ordering decisions based on a held-out validation set. The lower-level problem learns the optimal coefficients of the decision function on a training set, using only the features selected by the upper-level. We present a mixed integer linear program reformulation for the bilevel program, which can be solved to optimality with standard optimization solvers. Our computational experiments show that the method accurately recovers ground-truth features already for instances with a sample size of a few hundred observations. In contrast, regularization-based techniques often fail at feature recovery or require thousands of observations to obtain similar accuracy. Regarding out-of-sample generalization, we achieve improved or comparable cost performance.


On topological data analysis for structural dynamics: an introduction to persistent homology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Topological methods can provide a way of proposing new metrics and methods of scrutinising data, that otherwise may be overlooked. In this work, a method of quantifying the shape of data, via a topic called topological data analysis will be introduced. The main tool within topological data analysis (TDA) is persistent homology. Persistent homology is a method of quantifying the shape of data over a range of length scales. The required background and a method of computing persistent homology is briefly discussed in this work. Ideas from topological data analysis are then used for nonlinear dynamics to analyse some common attractors, by calculating their embedding dimension, and then to assess their general topologies. A method will also be proposed, that uses topological data analysis to determine the optimal delay for a time-delay embedding. TDA will also be applied to a Z24 Bridge case study in structural health monitoring, where it will be used to scrutinise different data partitions, classified by the conditions at which the data were collected. A metric, from topological data analysis, is used to compare data between the partitions. The results presented demonstrate that the presence of damage alters the manifold shape more significantly than the effects present from temperature.


Rates of Convergence for Regression with the Graph Poly-Laplacian

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the (special) smoothing spline problem one considers a variational problem with a quadratic data fidelity penalty and Laplacian regularisation. Higher order regularity can be obtained via replacing the Laplacian regulariser with a poly-Laplacian regulariser. The methodology is readily adapted to graphs and here we consider graph poly-Laplacian regularisation in a fully supervised, non-parametric, noise corrupted, regression problem. In particular, given a dataset $\{x_i\}_{i=1}^n$ and a set of noisy labels $\{y_i\}_{i=1}^n\subset\mathbb{R}$ we let $u_n:\{x_i\}_{i=1}^n\to\mathbb{R}$ be the minimiser of an energy which consists of a data fidelity term and an appropriately scaled graph poly-Laplacian term. When $y_i = g(x_i)+\xi_i$, for iid noise $\xi_i$, and using the geometric random graph, we identify (with high probability) the rate of convergence of $u_n$ to $g$ in the large data limit $n\to\infty$. Furthermore, our rate, up to logarithms, coincides with the known rate of convergence in the usual smoothing spline model.


Primary MS in Machine Learning - Applied Study - Machine Learning - CMU - Carnegie Mellon University

#artificialintelligence

We welcome applicants from a variety of backgrounds and an undergraduate degree in Computer Science is not required. Incoming students must have a strong background in computer science, including a solid understanding of complexity theory and good programming skills, as well as a good background in mathematics. Specifically, the first-year courses assume at least one year of college-level probability and statistics, as well as matrix algebra and multivariate calculus. For our introductory ML course, there's a self-assessment test [PDF] which will give you some idea about the background we expect students to have (for the MS you're looking at the "modest requirements"). Generally, you need to have some reasonable programming skills, with experience in Matlab/R/scipy-numpy especially helpful, and Java and Python being more useful than C, and a solid math background, especially in probability/statistics, linear algebra, and matrix and tensor calculus.


Bump hunting through density curvature features

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bump hunting deals with finding in sample spaces meaningful data subsets known as bumps. These have traditionally been conceived as modal or concave regions in the graph of the underlying density function. We define an abstract bump construct based on curvature functionals of the probability density. Then, we explore several alternative characterizations involving derivatives up to second order. In particular, a suitable implementation of Good and Gaskins' original concave bumps is proposed in the multivariate case. Moreover, we bring to exploratory data analysis concepts like the mean curvature and the Laplacian that have produced good results in applied domains. Our methodology addresses the approximation of the curvature functional with a plug-in kernel density estimator. We provide theoretical results that assure the asymptotic consistency of bump boundaries in the Hausdorff distance with affordable convergence rates. We also present asymptotically valid and consistent confidence regions bounding curvature bumps. The theory is illustrated through several use cases in sports analytics with datasets from the NBA, MLB and NFL. We conclude that the different curvature instances effectively combine to generate insightful visualizations.


Variance Reduced EXTRA and DIGing and Their Optimal Acceleration for Strongly Convex Decentralized Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study stochastic decentralized optimization for the problem of training machine learning models with large-scale distributed data. We extend the widely used EXTRA and DIGing methods with variance reduction (VR), and propose two methods: VR-EXTRA and VR-DIGing. The proposed VR-EXTRA requires the time of $O((\kappa_s+n)\log\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ stochastic gradient evaluations and $O((\kappa_b+\kappa_c)\log\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ communication rounds to reach precision $\epsilon$, which are the best complexities among the non-accelerated gradient-type methods, where $\kappa_s$ and $\kappa_b$ are the stochastic condition number and batch condition number for strongly convex and smooth problems, respectively, $\kappa_c$ is the condition number of the communication network, and $n$ is the sample size on each distributed node. The proposed VR-DIGing has a little higher communication cost of $O((\kappa_b+\kappa_c^2)\log\frac{1}{\epsilon})$. Our stochastic gradient computation complexities are the same as the ones of single-machine VR methods, such as SAG, SAGA, and SVRG, and our communication complexities keep the same as those of EXTRA and DIGing, respectively. To further speed up the convergence, we also propose the accelerated VR-EXTRA and VR-DIGing with both the optimal $O((\sqrt{n\kappa_s}+n)\log\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ stochastic gradient computation complexity and $O(\sqrt{\kappa_b\kappa_c}\log\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ communication complexity. Our stochastic gradient computation complexity is also the same as the ones of single-machine accelerated VR methods, such as Katyusha, and our communication complexity keeps the same as those of accelerated full batch decentralized methods, such as MSDA.


Practical Data Science: Matrices, vectors, and linear algebra

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Understanding both these perspectives is critical for virtually all data science analysis algorithms. Ignoring the primary key column (this is not really a numeric feature, so makes less sense toโ€ฆ


Decentralized Collaborative Learning with Probabilistic Data Protection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--We discuss future directions of Blockchain as a collaborative value co-creation platform, in which network participants can gain extra insights that cannot be accessed when disconnected from the others. As such, we propose a decentralized machine learning framework that is carefully designed to respect the values of democracy, diversity, and privacy. Specifically, we propose a federated multi-task learning framework that integrates a privacy-preserving dynamic consensus algorithm. We show that a specific network topology called the expander graph dramatically improves the scalability of global consensus building. We conclude the paper by making some remarks on open problems.


Large-Dimensional Multibody Dynamics Simulation Using Contact Nodalization and Diagonalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel multibody dynamics simulation framework that can efficiently deal with large-dimensionality and complementarity multi-contact conditions. Typical contact simulation approaches perform contact impulse-level fixed-point iteration (IL-FPI), which has high time-complexity from large-size matrix inversion and multiplication, as well as susceptibility to ill-conditioned contact situations. To circumvent this, we propose a novel framework based on velocity-level fixed-point iteration (VL-FPI), which, by utilizing a certain surrogate dynamics and contact nodalization (with virtual nodes), can achieve not only inter-contact decoupling but also their inter-axes decoupling (i.e., contact diagonalization). This then enables us to one-shot/parallel-solve the contact problem during each VL-FPI iteration-loop, while the surrogate dynamics structure allows us to circumvent large-size/dense matrix inversion/multiplication, thereby, significantly speeding up the simulation time with improved convergence property. We theoretically show that the solution of our framework is consistent with that of the original problem and, further, elucidate mathematical conditions for the convergence of our proposed solver. Performance and properties of our proposed simulation framework are also demonstrated and experimentally-validated for various large-dimensional/multi-contact scenarios including deformable objects.


Network inference via process motifs for lagged correlation in linear stochastic processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A major challenge for causal inference from time-series data is the trade-off between computational feasibility and accuracy. Motivated by process motifs for lagged covariance in an autoregressive model with slow mean-reversion, we propose to infer networks of causal relations via pairwise edge measure (PEMs) that one can easily compute from lagged correlation matrices. Motivated by contributions of process motifs to covariance and lagged variance, we formulate two PEMs that correct for confounding factors and for reverse causation. To demonstrate the performance of our PEMs, we consider network interference from simulations of linear stochastic processes, and we show that our proposed PEMs can infer networks accurately and efficiently. Specifically, for slightly autocorrelated time-series data, our approach achieves accuracies higher than or similar to Granger causality, transfer entropy, and convergent crossmapping -- but with much shorter computation time than possible with any of these methods. Our fast and accurate PEMs are easy-to-implement methods for network inference with a clear theoretical underpinning. They provide promising alternatives to current paradigms for the inference of linear models from time-series data, including Granger causality, vector-autoregression, and sparse inverse covariance estimation.