Mathematical & Statistical Methods
Gaussian Database Alignment and Gaussian Planted Matching
Dai, Osman Emre, Cullina, Daniel, Kiyavash, Negar
Database alignment is a variant of the graph alignment problem: Given a pair of anonymized databases containing separate yet correlated features for a set of users, the problem is to identify the correspondence between the features and align the anonymized user sets based on correlation alone. This closely relates to planted matching, where given a bigraph with random weights, the goal is to identify the underlying matching that generated the given weights. We study an instance of the database alignment problem with multivariate Gaussian features and derive results that apply both for database alignment and for planted matching, demonstrating the connection between them. The performance thresholds for database alignment converge to that for planted matching when the dimensionality of the database features is \(\omega(\log n)\), where \(n\) is the size of the alignment, and no individual feature is too strong. The maximum likelihood algorithms for both planted matching and database alignment take the form of a linear program and we study relaxations to better understand the significance of various constraints under various conditions and present achievability and converse bounds. Our results show that the almost-exact alignment threshold for the relaxed algorithms coincide with that of maximum likelihood, while there is a gap between the exact alignment thresholds. Our analysis and results extend to the unbalanced case where one user set is not fully covered by the alignment.
Statistical Comparisons of Classifiers by Generalized Stochastic Dominance
Jansen, Christoph, Nalenz, Malte, Schollmeyer, Georg, Augustin, Thomas
Although being a crucial question for the development of machine learning algorithms, there is still no consensus on how to compare classifiers over multiple data sets with respect to several criteria. Every comparison framework is confronted with (at least) three fundamental challenges: the multiplicity of quality criteria, the multiplicity of data sets and the randomness of the selection of data sets. In this paper, we add a fresh view to the vivid debate by adopting recent developments in decision theory. Based on so-called preference systems, our framework ranks classifiers by a generalized concept of stochastic dominance, which powerfully circumvents the cumbersome, and often even self-contradictory, reliance on aggregates. Moreover, we show that generalized stochastic dominance can be operationalized by solving easy-to-handle linear programs and moreover statistically tested employing an adapted two-sample observation-randomization test. This yields indeed a powerful framework for the statistical comparison of classifiers over multiple data sets with respect to multiple quality criteria simultaneously. We illustrate and investigate our framework in a simulation study and with a set of standard benchmark data sets.
Entropic covariance models
In covariance matrix estimation, one of the challenges lies in finding a suitable model and an efficient estimation method. Two commonly used modelling approaches in the literature involve imposing linear restrictions on the covariance matrix or its inverse. Another approach considers linear restrictions on the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix. In this paper, we present a general framework for linear restrictions on different transformations of the covariance matrix, including the mentioned examples. Our proposed estimation method solves a convex problem and yields an M-estimator, allowing for relatively straightforward asymptotic and finite sample analysis. After developing the general theory, we focus on modelling correlation matrices and on sparsity. Our geometric insights allow to extend various recent results in covariance matrix modelling. This includes providing unrestricted parametrizations of the space of correlation matrices, which is alternative to a recent result utilizing the matrix logarithm.
Post-selection Inference for Conformal Prediction: Trading off Coverage for Precision
Sarkar, Siddhaarth, Kuchibhotla, Arun Kumar
Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent specification of miscoverage level. In practical applications, one might want to update the miscoverage level after computing the prediction set. For example, in the context of binary classification, the analyst might start with a 95$\%$ prediction sets and see that most prediction sets contain all outcome classes. Prediction sets with both classes being undesirable, the analyst might desire to consider, say 80$\%$ prediction set. Construction of prediction sets that guarantee coverage with data-dependent miscoverage level can be considered as a post-selection inference problem. In this work, we develop simultaneous conformal inference to account for data-dependent miscoverage levels. Under the assumption of independent and identically distributed observations, our proposed methods have a finite sample simultaneous guarantee over all miscoverage levels. This allows practitioners to trade freely coverage probability for the quality of the prediction set by any criterion of their choice (say size of prediction set) while maintaining the finite sample guarantees similar to traditional conformal inference.
Avoidance of Concave Obstacles through Rotation of Nonlinear Dynamics
Huber, Lukas, Slotine, Jean-Jacques, Billard, Aude
Controlling complex tasks in robotic systems, such as circular motion for cleaning or following curvy lines, can be dealt with using nonlinear vector fields. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called rotational obstacle avoidance method (ROAM) for adapting the initial dynamics when the workspace is partially occluded by obstacles. ROAM presents a closed-form solution that effectively avoids star-shaped obstacles in spaces of arbitrary dimensions by rotating the initial dynamics towards the tangent space. The algorithm enables navigation within obstacle hulls and can be customized to actively move away from surfaces, while guaranteeing the presence of only a single saddle point on the boundary of each obstacle. We introduce a sequence of mappings to extend the approach for general nonlinear dynamics. Moreover, ROAM extends its capabilities to handle multi-obstacle environments and provides the ability to constrain dynamics within a safe tube. By utilizing weighted vector-tree summation, we successfully navigate around general concave obstacles represented as a tree-of-stars. Through experimental evaluation, ROAM demonstrates superior performance in terms of minimizing occurrences of local minima and maintaining similarity to the initial dynamics, outperforming existing approaches in multi-obstacle simulations. The proposed method is highly reactive, owing to its simplicity, and can be applied effectively in dynamic environments. This was demonstrated during the collision-free navigation of a 7 degree-of-freedom robot arm around dynamic obstacles
Deep R Programming
Deep R Programming is a comprehensive and in-depth introductory course on one of the most popular languages for data science. It equips ambitious students, professionals, and researchers with the knowledge and skills to become independent users of this potent environment so that they can tackle any problem related to data wrangling and analytics, numerical computing, statistics, and machine learning. This textbook is a non-profit project. Its online and PDF versions are freely available at
Adaptive Monte Carlo Search for Conjecture Refutation in Graph Theory
Vito, Valentino, Stefanus, Lim Yohanes
Graph theory is an interdisciplinary field of study that has various applications in mathematical modeling and computer science. Research in graph theory depends on the creation of not only theorems but also conjectures. Conjecture-refuting algorithms attempt to refute conjectures by searching for counterexamples to those conjectures, often by maximizing certain score functions on graphs. This study proposes a novel conjecture-refuting algorithm, referred to as the adaptive Monte Carlo search (AMCS) algorithm, obtained by modifying the Monte Carlo tree search algorithm. Evaluated based on its success in finding counterexamples to several graph theory conjectures, AMCS outperforms existing conjecture-refuting algorithms. The algorithm is further utilized to refute six open conjectures, two of which were chemical graph theory conjectures formulated by Liu et al. in 2021 and four of which were formulated by the AutoGraphiX computer system in 2006. Finally, four of the open conjectures are strongly refuted by generalizing the counterexamples obtained by AMCS to produce a family of counterexamples. It is expected that the algorithm can help researchers test graph-theoretic conjectures more effectively.
Non-asymptotic convergence bounds for Sinkhorn iterates and their gradients: a coupling approach
Greco, Giacomo, Noble, Maxence, Conforti, Giovanni, Durmus, Alain
Computational optimal transport (OT) has recently emerged as a powerful framework with applications in various fields. In this paper we focus on a relaxation of the original OT problem, the entropic OT problem, which allows to implement efficient and practical algorithmic solutions, even in high dimensional settings. This formulation, also known as the Schr\"odinger Bridge problem, notably connects with Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) and can be solved with the popular Sinkhorn algorithm. In the case of discrete-state spaces, this algorithm is known to have exponential convergence; however, achieving a similar rate of convergence in a more general setting is still an active area of research. In this work, we analyze the convergence of the Sinkhorn algorithm for probability measures defined on the $d$-dimensional torus $\mathbb{T}_L^d$, that admit densities with respect to the Haar measure of $\mathbb{T}_L^d$. In particular, we prove pointwise exponential convergence of Sinkhorn iterates and their gradient. Our proof relies on the connection between these iterates and the evolution along the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations of value functions obtained from SOC-problems. Our approach is novel in that it is purely probabilistic and relies on coupling by reflection techniques for controlled diffusions on the torus.
On tracking varying bounds when forecasting bounded time series
Pierrot, Amandine, Pinson, Pierre
Many statistical applications involve response variables which are both continuous and bounded. This is especially the case when one has to deal with rates, percentages or proportions, for example when interested in the spread of an epidemic (Guolo and Varin, 2014), the unemployment rates in a given country (Wallis, 1987) or the proportion of time spent by animals in a certain activity (Cotgreave and Clayton, 1994). Indeed, proportional data are widely encountered within ecology-related statistical problems, see Warton and Hui (2011) among others. Similarly, when forecasting wind power generation, the response variable is also such a continuous bounded variable. Wind power generation is a stochastic process with continuous state space which is bounded from below by zero when there is no wind, and from above by the nominal capacity of the turbine (or wind farm) for high-enough wind speeds. More generally, renewable energy generation from both wind and solar energy are bounded stochastic processes, with the same lower bound (i.e., zero energy production) and different characteristics of their upper bound (since solar energy generation has a time-varying maximum depending on the time of day and time of year), see for example Pinson (2012) and Bacher et al. (2009). These continuous bounded random variables call for probability distributions with a bounded support such as the beta distribution, truncated distributions or distributions of transformed normal variables as discussed for example in Johnson (1949). Very often the response variable is first assumed to lie in the unit interval (0, 1) and is then rescaled to any interval (a, b) through the transformation X = (b a) X + a, where X (0, 1) and X (a, b).
Samplet basis pursuit
Baroli, Davide, Harbrecht, Helmut, Multerer, Michael
We consider kernel-based learning in samplet coordinates with l1-regularization. The application of an l1-regularization term enforces sparsity of the coefficients with respect to the samplet basis. Therefore, we call this approach samplet basis pursuit. Samplets are wavelet-type signed measures, which are tailored to scattered data. They provide similar properties as wavelets in terms of localization, multiresolution analysis, and data compression. The class of signals that can sparsely be represented in a samplet basis is considerably larger than the class of signals which exhibit a sparse representation in the single-scale basis. In particular, every signal that can be represented by the superposition of only a few features of the canonical feature map is also sparse in samplet coordinates. We propose the efficient solution of the problem under consideration by combining soft-shrinkage with the semi-smooth Newton method and compare the approach to the fast iterative shrinkage thresholding algorithm. We present numerical benchmarks as well as applications to surface reconstruction from noisy data and to the reconstruction of temperature data using a dictionary of multiple kernels.