Data-driven fault diagnosis is complicated by unknown fault classes and limited training data from different fault realizations. In these situations, conventional multi-class classification approaches are not suitable for fault diagnosis. One solution is the use of anomaly classifiers that are trained using only nominal data. Anomaly classifiers can be used to detect when a fault occurs but give little information about its root cause. Hybrid fault diagnosis methods combining physically-based models and available training data have shown promising results to improve fault classification performance and identify unknown fault classes. Residual generation using grey-box recurrent neural networks can be used for anomaly classification where physical insights about the monitored system are incorporated into the design of the machine learning algorithm. In this work, an automated residual design is developed using a bipartite graph representation of the system model to design grey-box recurrent neural networks and evaluated using a real industrial case study. Data from an internal combustion engine test bench is used to illustrate the potentials of combining machine learning and model-based fault diagnosis techniques.

Decision tree optimization is notoriously difficult from a computational perspective but essential for the field of interpretable machine learning. Despite efforts over the past 40 years, only recently have optimization breakthroughs been made that have allowed practical algorithms to find optimal decision trees. These new techniques have the potential to trigger a paradigm shift where it is possible to construct sparse decision trees to efficiently optimize a variety of objective functions without relying on greedy splitting and pruning heuristics that often lead to suboptimal solutions. The contribution in this work is to provide a general framework for decision tree optimization that addresses the two significant open problems in the area: treatment of imbalanced data and fully optimizing over continuous variables. We present techniques that produce optimal decision trees over a variety of objectives including F-score, AUC, and partial area under the ROC convex hull. We also introduce a scalable algorithm that produces provably optimal results in the presence of continuous variables and speeds up decision tree construction by several orders of magnitude relative to the state-of-the art.

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal model into a credal network. Causal inferences, such as interventions and counterfactuals, can consequently be obtained by standard algorithms for the updating of credal nets. These natively return sharp values in the identifiable case, while intervals corresponding to the exact bounds are produced for unidentifiable queries. A characterization of the causal models that allow the map above to be compactly derived is given, along with a discussion about the scalability for general models. This contribution should be regarded as a systematic approach to represent structural causal models by credal networks and hence to systematically compute causal inferences. A number of demonstrative examples is presented to clarify our methodology. Extensive experiments show that approximate algorithms for credal networks can immediately be used to do causal inference in real-size problems.

In this paper, we study a novel problem: "automatic prescription recommendation for PD patients." To realize this goal, we first build a dataset by collecting 1) symptoms of PD patients, and 2) their prescription drug provided by neurologists. Then, we build a novel computer-aided prescription model by learning the relation between observed symptoms and prescription drug. Finally, for the new coming patients, we could recommend (predict) suitable prescription drug on their observed symptoms by our prescription model. From the methodology part, our proposed model, namely Prescription viA Learning lAtent Symptoms (PALAS), could recommend prescription using the multi-modality representation of the data. In PALAS, a latent symptom space is learned to better model the relationship between symptoms and prescription drug, as there is a large semantic gap between them. Moreover, we present an efficient alternating optimization method for PALAS. We evaluated our method using the data collected from 136 PD patients at Nanjing Brain Hospital, which can be regarded as a large dataset in PD research community. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and clinical potential of our method in this recommendation task, if compared with other competing methods.

A general purpose method to detect statistical dependence, or correlation, between random variables has invaluable uses in a wide array of sciences and applications (Li, 2000; Martínez-Gómez et al., 2014; Mahdi et al., 2012). Linear correlation (Pearson, 1920) is one of the oldest statistical methods that are still widely used today. Though the assumption of linearity is not always realistic, the popularity of such method stems from its ease of computation, simplicity, interpretability, and high power when the assumption of linearity is satisfied. Several approaches have been proposed to quantify correlation, in the general case, for more complex relationships and under less stringent assumptions. Examples of these methods are the kernel based correlation (Hardoon et al., 2004; Chang et al., 2013), copula methods (Poczos et al., 2012), distance correlation (Székely et al., 2007; Székely and Rizzo, 2009), and discretization based mutual information (MI) (Steuer et al., 2002) methods such as the maximal information criterion (MIC) (Reshef et al., 2011). Issues that can be lacking in some of the existing methods include: low statistical power, high computation demand, lack of intuitive interpretability, or lack of a known distribution of the coefficient under independence that would enable computing a statistical confidence. More thorough details on the pros and cons of those methods and others can be found in several studies (de Siqueira Santos et al., 2014; N. Reshef et al., 2018).

This blog covers another interesting machine learning algorithm called Decision Trees and it's mathematical implementation. At every point in our life, we make some decisions to proceed further. Similarly, this machine learning algorithm also makes the same decisions on the dataset provided and figures out the best splitting or decision at each step to improve the accuracy and make better decisions. This, in turn, helps in giving valuable results. A decision tree is a machine learning algorithm which represents a hierarchical division of dataset to form a tree based on certain parameters.

Human beings learn causal models and constantly use them to transfer knowledge between similar environments. We use this intuition to design a transfer-learning framework using object-oriented representations to learn the causal relationships between objects. A learned causal dynamics model can be used to transfer between variants of an environment with exchangeable perceptual features among objects but with the same underlying causal dynamics. We adapt continuous optimization for structure learning techniques to explicitly learn the cause and effects of the actions in an interactive environment and transfer to the target domain by categorization of the objects based on causal knowledge. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach in a gridworld setting by combining causal model-based approach with model-free approach in reinforcement learning.

Ensemble learning is widely applied in Machine Learning (ML) to improve model performance and to mitigate decision risks. In this approach, predictions from a diverse set of learners are combined to obtain a joint decision. Recently, various methods have been explored in literature for estimating decision uncertainties using ensemble learning; however, determining which metrics are a better fit for certain decision-making applications remains a challenging task. In this paper, we study the following key research question in the selection of uncertainty metrics: when does an uncertainty metric outperforms another? We answer this question via a rigorous analysis of two commonly used uncertainty metrics in ensemble learning, namely ensemble mean and ensemble variance. We show that, under mild assumptions on the ensemble learners, ensemble mean is preferable with respect to ensemble variance as an uncertainty metric for decision making.

Background/aims Human grading of digital images from diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening programmes represents a significant challenge, due to the increasing prevalence of diabetes. We evaluate the performance of an automated artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm to triage retinal images from the English Diabetic Eye Screening Programme (DESP) into test-positive/technical failure versus test-negative, using human grading following a standard national protocol as the reference standard. Methods Retinal images from 30 405 consecutive screening episodes from three English DESPs were manually graded following a standard national protocol and by an automated process with machine learning enabled software, EyeArt v2.1. Screening performance (sensitivity, specificity) and diagnostic accuracy (95% CIs) were determined using human grades as the reference standard. Results Sensitivity (95% CIs) of EyeArt was 95.7% (94.8% to 96.5%) for referable retinopathy (human graded ungradable, referable maculopathy, moderate-to-severe non-proliferative or proliferative). This comprises sensitivities of 98.3% (97.3% to 98.9%) for mild-to-moderate non-proliferative retinopathy with referable maculopathy, 100% (98.7%,100%) for moderate-to-severe non-proliferative retinopathy and 100% (97.9%,100%) for proliferative disease. EyeArt agreed with the human grade of no retinopathy (specificity) in 68% (67% to 69%), with a specificity of 54.0% (53.4% to 54.5%) when combined with non-referable retinopathy. Conclusion The algorithm demonstrated safe levels of sensitivity for high-risk retinopathy in a real-world screening service, with specificity that could halve the workload for human graders. AI machine learning and deep learning algorithms such as this can provide clinically equivalent, rapid detection of retinopathy, particularly in settings where a trained workforce is unavailable or where large-scale and rapid results are needed.

Decision trees are simple to implement and equally easy to interpret. And decision trees are idea for machine learning newcomers as well! If you are unsure about even one of these questions, you've come to the right place! Decision Tree is a powerful machine learning algorithm that also serves as the building block for other widely used and complicated machine learning algorithms like Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM. You can imagine why it's important to learn about this topic!