Data-driven fault classification is complicated by imbalanced training data and unknown fault classes. Fault diagnosis of dynamic systems is done by detecting changes in time-series data, for example residuals, caused by faults or system degradation. Different fault classes can result in similar residual outputs, especially for small faults which can be difficult to distinguish from nominal system operation. Analyzing how easy it is to distinguish data from different fault classes is crucial during the design process of a diagnosis system to evaluate if classification performance requirements can be met. Here, a data-driven model of different fault classes is used based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. This is used to develop a framework for quantitative fault diagnosis performance analysis and open set fault classification. A data-driven fault classification algorithm is proposed which can handle unknown faults and also estimate the fault size using training data from known fault scenarios. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methods, data have been collected from an engine test bench to illustrate the design process of a data-driven diagnosis system, including quantitative fault diagnosis analysis and evaluation of the developed open set fault classification algorithm.

Background: Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious bacterial disease presenting similar symptoms to pneumonia; therefore, differentiating between TB and pneumonia is challenging. Therefore, the main aim of this study is proposing an automatic method for differential diagnosis of TB from Pneumonia. Methods: In this study, a two-step decision support system named TPIS is proposed for differential diagnosis of TB from pneumonia based on stacked ensemble classifiers. The first step of our proposed model aims at early diagnosis based on low-cost features including demographic characteristics and patient symptoms (including 18 features). TPIS second step makes the final decision based on the meta features extracted in the first step, the laboratory tests and chest radiography reports. This retrospective study considers 199 patient medical records for patients suffering from TB or pneumonia, which has been registered in a hospital in Arak, Iran. Results: Experimental results show that TPIS outperforms the compared machine learning methods for early differential diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis from pneumonia with AUC of 90.26 and accuracy of 91.37 and final decision making with AUC of 92.81 and accuracy of 93.89. Conclusions: The main advantage of early diagnosis is beginning the treatment procedure for confidently diagnosed patients as soon as possible and preventing latency in treatment. Therefore, early diagnosis reduces the maturation of late treatment of both diseases.

It wasn't planned, but Alzheimer's disease has become a recurrent theme in the career of physicist Serge Rombouts, Professor of Cognitive Neuroimaging at the LUMC and the University's Institute of Psychology. He received a PhD in 1999 for a technique using an MRI scanner to visualise the brain activity of Alzheimer's patients, and dementia has continued to crop up in many of his projects ever since. The ultimate aim: to use a brain scan to determine whether someone has dementia, in addition to the interviews and memory tests that doctors use to reach a diagnosis. 'The problem is that at an early stage Alzheimer's disease has all sorts of similarities with other forms of dementia,' says Rombouts. 'You want to distinguish between these at as early a stage as possible, and this diagnosis is also useful if you want to try out new treatments.

Decision trees are a fundamental machine learning technique that every data scientist should know. Luckily, the construction and implementation of decision trees in SAS is straightforward and easy to produce. The data that we will use for this example is found in the fantastic UCI Machine Learning Repository. The data set is titled "Bank Marketing Dataset," and it can be found at: http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/Bank This data set represents a direct marketing campaign (phone calls) conducted by a Portuguese banking institution.

The importance of algorithmic fairness grows with the increasing impact machine learning has on people's lives. Recent work on fairness metrics shows the need for causal reasoning in fairness constraints. In this work, a practical method named FairTrade is proposed for creating flexible prediction models which integrate fairness constraints on sensitive causal paths. The method uses recent advances in variational inference in order to account for unobserved confounders. Further, a method outline is proposed which uses the causal mechanism estimates to audit black box models.

Interpretability and effectiveness are two essential and indispensable requirements for adopting machine learning methods in reality. In this paper, we propose a knowledge distillation based decision trees extension, dubbed rectified decision trees (ReDT), to explore the possibility of fulfilling those requirements simultaneously. Specifically, we extend the splitting criteria and the ending condition of the standard decision trees, which allows training with soft labels while preserving the deterministic splitting paths. We then train the ReDT based on the soft label distilled from a well-trained teacher model through a novel jackknife-based method. Accordingly, ReDT preserves the excellent interpretable nature of the decision trees while having a relatively good performance. The effectiveness of adopting soft labels instead of hard ones is also analyzed empirically and theoretically. Surprisingly, experiments indicate that the introduction of soft labels also reduces the model size compared with the standard decision trees from the aspect of the total nodes and rules, which is an unexpected gift from the `dark knowledge' distilled from the teacher model.

Incipient anomalies present milder symptoms compared to severe ones, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of incipient anomaly examples in the training data can pose severe risks to anomaly detection methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these anomalies can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. To address this challenge, we propose to utilize the uncertainty information available from ensemble learning to identify potential misclassified incipient anomalies. We show in this paper that ensemble learning methods can give improved performance on incipient anomalies and identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting incipient anomalies.

Incipient anomalies present milder symptoms compared to severe ones, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of incipient anomaly examples in the training data can pose severe risks to anomaly detection methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these anomalies can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. To address this challenge, we propose to utilize the uncertainty information available from ensemble learning to identify potential misclassified incipient anomalies. We show in this paper that ensemble learning methods can give improved performance on incipient anomalies and identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting incipient anomalies.

Inferring the structure of a causal model with feedback loops from observational data is a notoriously difficult--if not impossible--problem, particularly if one also seeks to guard against presence of latent confounders [9, 29]. We consider this problem for linear causal models given by mixed graphs (or path diagrams) with directed and bidirected edges. As detailed in Section 2, the vertices of such a graph correspond to the observed variables, and the directed edges encode structural equations that relate these variables up to stochastic noise. The bidirected edges indicate possible correlations among the noise terms, as may be induced by latent confounders. Much work has gone into algorithms that exploit conditional independence relations for learning the structure of causal models, or rather suitable equivalence classes of graphs encoding this structure; see, e.g., [10, 17, 18, 24, 25] or also the review of Spirtes and Zhang in [21, §18]. While methods have been developed that use information about conditional independence relations also in settings with feedback loops or latent variables, there is an inherent limitation to this approach as causal models with feedback loops or latent variables can generally not be characterized using conditional independence constraints alone [8, 27, 31, 32]. Alternatively, structure learning can be approached using score-based search techniques; see, e.g., [3, 28, 30].

Machine learning promises to revolutionize clinical decision making and diagnosis. In medical diagnosis a doctor aims to explain a patient’s symptoms by determining the diseases causing them. However, existing machine learning approaches to diagnosis are purely associative, identifying diseases that are strongly correlated with a patients symptoms. We show that this inability to disentangle correlation from causation can result in sub-optimal or dangerous diagnoses. To overcome this, we reformulate diagnosis as a counterfactual inference task and derive counterfactual diagnostic algorithms. We compare our counterfactual algorithms to the standard associative algorithm and 44 doctors using a test set of clinical vignettes. While the associative algorithm achieves an accuracy placing in the top 48% of doctors in our cohort, our counterfactual algorithm places in the top 25% of doctors, achieving expert clinical accuracy. Our results show that causal reasoning is a vital missing ingredient for applying machine learning to medical diagnosis. In medical diagnosis a doctor aims to explain a patient’s symptoms by determining the diseases causing them, while existing diagnostic algorithms are purely associative. Here, the authors reformulate diagnosis as a counterfactual inference task and derive new counterfactual diagnostic algorithms.