Research in Cognitive Science suggests that humans understand and represent knowledge of the world through causal relationships. In addition to observations, they can rely on experimenting and counterfactual reasoning -- i.e. referring to an alternative course of events -- to identify causal relations and explain atypical situations. Different instances of control systems, such as smart homes, would benefit from having a similar causal model, as it would help the user understand the logic of the system and better react when needed. However, while data-driven methods achieve high levels of correlation detection, they mainly fall short of finding causal relations, notably being limited to observations only. Notably, they struggle to identify the cause from the effect when detecting a correlation between two variables. This paper introduces a new way to learn causal models from a mixture of experiments on the environment and observational data. The core of our method is the use of selected interventions, especially our learning takes into account the variables where it is impossible to intervene, unlike other approaches. The causal model we obtain is then used to generate Causal Bayesian Networks, which can be later used to perform diagnostic and predictive inference. We use our method on a smart home simulation, a use case where knowing causal relations pave the way towards explainable systems. Our algorithm succeeds in generating a Causal Bayesian Network close to the simulation's ground truth causal interactions, showing encouraging prospects for application in real-life systems.

Reconfiguration aims at recovering a system from a fault by automatically adapting the system configuration, such that the system goal can be reached again. Classical approaches typically use a set of pre-defined faults for which corresponding recovery actions are defined manually. This is not possible for modern hybrid systems which are characterized by frequent changes. Instead, AI-based approaches are needed which leverage on a model of the non-faulty system and which search for a set of reconfiguration operations which will establish a valid behavior again. This work presents a novel algorithm which solves three main challenges: (i) Only a model of the non-faulty system is needed, i.e. the faulty behavior does not need to be modeled. (ii) It discretizes and reduces the search space which originally is too large -- mainly due to the high number of continuous system variables and control signals. (iii) It uses a SAT solver for propositional logic for two purposes: First, it defines the binary concept of validity. Second, it implements the search itself -- sacrificing the optimal solution for a quick identification of an arbitrary solution. It is shown that the approach is able to reconfigure faults on simulated process engineering systems.

I want to expand this work into a series of µ-tutorial videos. If you're interested, please subscribe to my newsletter to stay in touch. It is not hard to be under an impression that the world is all about neural networks these days when it comes to making models. Many teams seem to brag about super-cool architectures as if getting enough quality data was straightforward, GPU racks were open 24/7 (for free), and their customer's patience was set to infinity. In this article, we will present one of the most basic machine-learning algorithms known as a Decision Tree.

Paul De Sousa, head of life sciences at Massive Analytic and former researcher at Edinburgh University, writes about a study using artificial precognition AI to analyse results of protein biomarker tests associated with Alzheimer's disease progression. Accounting for over 30 million Disability Adjusted Life Years worldwide, Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a global societal challenge and a threat to healthcare systems around the world. A long history of failures of AD drug trials has highlighted the need for early detection and diagnosis to support patients and clinicians to implement the best life adjustments or medical interventions to alter the course of the disease and personalise the care of those at risk. Biomarkers are measurable indicators of the biological conditions of health, on which disease prognosis and diagnosis is founded. In AD there are a range of diagnostic procedures to detect these biomarkers including testing Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and PET scans for markers of amyloid-β and tau that can accurately detect AD pathology, but their cost and invasive nature preclude the broad accessibility required for early detection.

We give a quasipolynomial-time algorithm for learning stochastic decision trees that is optimally resilient to adversarial noise. Given an $\eta$-corrupted set of uniform random samples labeled by a size-$s$ stochastic decision tree, our algorithm runs in time $n^{O(\log(s/\varepsilon)/\varepsilon^2)}$ and returns a hypothesis with error within an additive $2\eta + \varepsilon$ of the Bayes optimal. An additive $2\eta$ is the information-theoretic minimum. Previously no non-trivial algorithm with a guarantee of $O(\eta) + \varepsilon$ was known, even for weaker noise models. Our algorithm is furthermore proper, returning a hypothesis that is itself a decision tree; previously no such algorithm was known even in the noiseless setting.

Many methods have been proposed to detect concept drift, i.e., the change in the distribution of streaming data, due to concept drift causes a decrease in the prediction accuracy of algorithms. However, the most of current detection methods are based on the assessment of the degree of change in the data distribution, cannot identify the type of concept drift. In this paper, we propose Active Drift Detection with Meta learning (Meta-ADD), a novel framework that learns to classify concept drift by tracking the changed pattern of error rates. Specifically, in the training phase, we extract meta-features based on the error rates of various concept drift, after which a meta-detector is developed via a prototypical neural network by representing various concept drift classes as corresponding prototypes. In the detection phase, the learned meta-detector is fine-tuned to adapt to the corresponding data stream via stream-based active learning. Hence, Meta-ADD uses machine learning to learn to detect concept drifts and identify their types automatically, which can directly support drift understand. The experiment results verify the effectiveness of Meta-ADD.

Since the depletion of fossil fuels, the world has started to rely heavily on renewable sources of energy. With every passing year, our dependency on the renewable sources of energy is increasing exponentially. As a result, complex and hybrid generation systems are being designed and developed to meet the energy demands and ensure energy security in a country. The continual improvement in the technology and an effort towards the provision of uninterrupted power to the end-users is strongly dependent on an effective and fault resilient Operation and Maintenance (O&M) system. Ingenious algorithms and techniques are hence been introduced aiming to minimize equipment and plant downtime. Efforts are being made to develop robust Prognostic Maintenance systems that can identify the faults before they occur. To this aim, complex Data Analytics and Machine Learning (ML) techniques are being used to increase the overall efficiency of these prognostic maintenance systems. This paper provides an overview of the predictive/prognostic maintenance frameworks reported in the literature. We pay a particular focus to the approaches, challenges including data-related issues, such as the availability and quality of the data and data auditing, feature engineering, interpretability, and security issues. Being a key aspect of ML-based solutions, we also discuss some of the commonly used publicly available datasets in the domain. The paper also identifies key future research directions. We believe such detailed analysis will provide a baseline for future research in the domain.

The scope of data-driven fault diagnosis models is greatly improved through deep learning (DL). However, the classical convolution and recurrent structure have their defects in computational efficiency and feature representation, while the latest Transformer architecture based on attention mechanism has not been applied in this field. To solve these problems, we propose a novel time-frequency Transformer (TFT) model inspired by the massive success of standard Transformer in sequence processing. Specially, we design a fresh tokenizer and encoder module to extract effective abstractions from the time-frequency representation (TFR) of vibration signals. On this basis, a new end-to-end fault diagnosis framework based on time-frequency Transformer is presented in this paper. Through the case studies on bearing experimental datasets, we constructed the optimal Transformer structure and verified the performance of the diagnostic method. The superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated in comparison with the benchmark model and other state-of-the-art methods.

Depending on the application, radiological diagnoses can be associated with high inter- and intra-rater variabilities. Most computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) solutions treat such data as incontrovertible, exposing learning algorithms to considerable and possibly contradictory label noise and biases. Thus, managing subjectivity in labels is a fundamental problem in medical imaging analysis. To address this challenge, we introduce auto-decoded deep latent embeddings (ADDLE), which explicitly models the tendencies of each rater using an auto-decoder framework. After a simple linear transformation, the latent variables can be injected into any backbone at any and multiple points, allowing the model to account for rater-specific effects on the diagnosis. Importantly, ADDLE does not expect multiple raters per image in training, meaning it can readily learn from data mined from hospital archives. Moreover, the complexity of training ADDLE does not increase as more raters are added. During inference each rater can be simulated and a 'mean' or 'greedy' virtual rating can be produced. We test ADDLE on the problem of liver steatosis diagnosis from 2D ultrasound (US) by collecting 46 084 studies along with clinical US diagnoses originating from 65 different raters. We evaluated diagnostic performance using a separate dataset with gold-standard biopsy diagnoses. ADDLE can improve the partial areas under the curve (AUCs) for diagnosing severe steatosis by 10.5% over standard classifiers while outperforming other annotator-noise approaches, including those requiring 65 times the parameters.

Many decisions involve choosing an uncertain course of actions in deep and wide decision trees, as when we plan to visit an exotic country for vacation. In these cases, exhaustive search for the best sequence of actions is not tractable due to the large number of possibilities and limited time or computational resources available to make the decision. Therefore, planning agents need to balance breadth (exploring many actions at each level of the tree) and depth (exploring many levels in the tree) to allocate optimally their finite search capacity. We provide efficient analytical solutions and numerical analysis to the problem of allocating finite sampling capacity in one shot to large decision trees. We find that in general the optimal policy is to allocate few samples per level so that deep levels can be reached, thus favoring depth over breadth search. In contrast, in poor environments and at low capacity, it is best to broadly sample branches at the cost of not sampling deeply, although this policy is marginally better than deep allocations. Our results provide a theoretical foundation for the optimality of deep imagination for planning and show that it is a generally valid heuristic that could have evolved from the finite constraints of cognitive systems.