Fault detection and diagnosis is significant for reducing maintenance costs and improving health and safety in chemical processes. Convolution neural network (CNN) is a popular deep learning algorithm with many successful applications in chemical fault detection and diagnosis tasks. However, convolution layers in CNN are very sensitive to the order of features, which can lead to instability in the processing of tabular data. Optimal order of features result in better performance of CNN models but it is expensive to seek such optimal order. In addition, because of the encapsulation mechanism of feature extraction, most CNN models are opaque and have poor interpretability, thus failing to identify root-cause features without human supervision. These difficulties inevitably limit the performance and credibility of CNN methods. In this paper, we propose an order-invariant and interpretable hierarchical dilated convolution neural network (HDLCNN), which is composed by feature clustering, dilated convolution and the shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method. The novelty of HDLCNN lies in its capability of processing tabular data with features of arbitrary order without seeking the optimal order, due to the ability to agglomerate correlated features of feature clustering and the large receptive field of dilated convolution. Then, the proposed method provides interpretability by including the SHAP values to quantify feature contribution. Therefore, the root-cause features can be identified as the features with the highest contribution. Computational experiments are conducted on the Tennessee Eastman chemical process benchmark dataset. Compared with the other methods, the proposed HDLCNN-SHAP method achieves better performance on processing tabular data with features of arbitrary order, detecting faults, and identifying the root-cause features.

Intelligent fault diagnosis has made extraordinary advancements currently. Nonetheless, few works tackle class-incremental learning for fault diagnosis under limited fault data, i.e., imbalanced and long-tailed fault diagnosis, which brings about various notable challenges. Initially, it is difficult to extract discriminative features from limited fault data. Moreover, a well-trained model must be retrained from scratch to classify the samples from new classes, thus causing a high computational burden and time consumption. Furthermore, the model may suffer from catastrophic forgetting when trained incrementally. Finally, the model decision is biased toward the new classes due to the class imbalance. The problems can consequently lead to performance degradation of fault diagnosis models. Accordingly, we introduce a supervised contrastive knowledge distillation for incremental fault diagnosis under limited fault data (SCLIFD) framework to address these issues, which extends the classical incremental classifier and representation learning (iCaRL) framework from three perspectives. Primarily, we adopt supervised contrastive knowledge distillation (KD) to enhance its representation learning capability under limited fault data. Moreover, we propose a novel prioritized exemplar selection method adaptive herding (AdaHerding) to restrict the increase of the computational burden, which is also combined with KD to alleviate catastrophic forgetting. Additionally, we adopt the cosine classifier to mitigate the adverse impact of class imbalance. We conduct extensive experiments on simulated and real-world industrial processes under different imbalance ratios. Experimental results show that our SCLIFD outperforms the existing methods by a large margin.

Early detection of many life-threatening diseases (e.g., prostate and breast cancer) within at-risk population can improve clinical outcomes and reduce cost of care. While numerous disease-specific "screening" tests that are closer to Point-of-Care (POC) are in use for this task, their low specificity results in unnecessary biopsies, leading to avoidable patient trauma and wasteful healthcare spending. On the other hand, despite the high accuracy of Magnetic Resonance (MR) imaging in disease diagnosis, it is not used as a POC disease identification tool because of poor accessibility. The root cause of poor accessibility of MR stems from the requirement to reconstruct high-fidelity images, as it necessitates a lengthy and complex process of acquiring large quantities of high-quality k-space measurements. In this study we explore the feasibility of an ML-augmented MR pipeline that directly infers the disease sidestepping the image reconstruction process. We hypothesise that the disease classification task can be solved using a very small tailored subset of k-space data, compared to image reconstruction. Towards that end, we propose a method that performs two tasks: 1) identifies a subset of the k-space that maximizes disease identification accuracy, and 2) infers the disease directly using the identified k-space subset, bypassing the image reconstruction step. We validate our hypothesis by measuring the performance of the proposed system across multiple diseases and anatomies. We show that comparable performance to image-based classifiers, trained on images reconstructed with full k-space data, can be achieved using small quantities of data: 8% of the data for detecting multiple abnormalities in prostate and brain scans, and 5% of the data for knee abnormalities. To better understand the proposed approach and instigate future research, we provide an extensive analysis and release code.

The Computer-aided Diagnosis or Detection (CAD) approach for skin lesion analysis is an emerging field of research that has the potential to alleviate the burden and cost of skin cancer screening. Researchers have recently indicated increasing interest in developing such CAD systems, with the intention of providing a user-friendly tool to dermatologists to reduce the challenges encountered or associated with manual inspection. This article aims to provide a comprehensive literature survey and review of a total of 594 publications (356 for skin lesion segmentation and 238 for skin lesion classification) published between 2011 and 2022. These articles are analyzed and summarized in a number of different ways to contribute vital information regarding the methods for the development of CAD systems. These ways include relevant and essential definitions and theories, input data (dataset utilization, preprocessing, augmentations, and fixing imbalance problems), method configuration (techniques, architectures, module frameworks, and losses), training tactics (hyperparameter settings), and evaluation criteria. We intend to investigate a variety of performance-enhancing approaches, including ensemble and post-processing. We also discuss these dimensions to reveal their current trends based on utilization frequencies. In addition, we highlight the primary difficulties associated with evaluating skin lesion segmentation and classification systems using minimal datasets, as well as the potential solutions to these difficulties. Findings, recommendations, and trends are disclosed to inform future research on developing an automated and robust CAD system for skin lesion analysis.

Root Cause Analysis (RCA) plays an indispensable role in distributed data system maintenance and operations, as it bridges the gap between fault detection and system recovery. Existing works mainly study multidimensional localization or graph-based root cause localization. This paper opens up the possibilities of exploiting the recently developed framework of explainable AI (XAI) for the purpose of RCA. In particular, we propose BALANCE (BAyesian Linear AttributioN for root CausE localization), which formulates the problem of RCA through the lens of attribution in XAI and seeks to explain the anomalies in the target KPIs by the behavior of the candidate root causes. BALANCE consists of three innovative components. First, we propose a Bayesian multicollinear feature selection (BMFS) model to predict the target KPIs given the candidate root causes in a forward manner while promoting sparsity and concurrently paying attention to the correlation between the candidate root causes. Second, we introduce attribution analysis to compute the attribution score for each candidate in a backward manner. Third, we merge the estimated root causes related to each KPI if there are multiple KPIs. We extensively evaluate the proposed BALANCE method on one synthesis dataset as well as three real-world RCA tasks, that is, bad SQL localization, container fault localization, and fault type diagnosis for Exathlon. Results show that BALANCE outperforms the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods in terms of accuracy with the least amount of running time, and achieves at least $6\%$ notably higher accuracy than SOTA methods for real tasks. BALANCE has been deployed to production to tackle real-world RCA problems, and the online results further advocate its usage for real-time diagnosis in distributed data systems.

Interpretability of reinforcement learning policies is essential for many real-world tasks but learning such interpretable policies is a hard problem. Particularly rule-based policies such as decision trees and rules lists are difficult to optimize due to their non-differentiability. While existing techniques can learn verifiable decision tree policies there is no guarantee that the learners generate a decision that performs optimally. In this work, we study the optimization of size-limited decision trees for Markov Decision Processes (MPDs) and propose OMDTs: Optimal MDP Decision Trees. Given a user-defined size limit and MDP formulation OMDT directly maximizes the expected discounted return for the decision tree using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming. By training optimal decision tree policies for different MDPs we empirically study the optimality gap for existing imitation learning techniques and find that they perform sub-optimally. We show that this is due to an inherent shortcoming of imitation learning, namely that complex policies cannot be represented using size-limited trees. In such cases, it is better to directly optimize the tree for expected return. While there is generally a trade-off between the performance and interpretability of machine learning models, we find that OMDTs limited to a depth of 3 often perform close to the optimal limit.

Recent advances in probabilistic generative modeling have motivated learning Structural Causal Models (SCM) from observational datasets using deep conditional generative models, also known as Deep Structural Causal Model (DSCM). If successful, DSCMs can be utilized for causal estimation tasks, e.g., for answering counterfactual queries (Pawlowski et al. (2020)). In this work, we warn practitioners about non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in the absence of unobserved confounding and assuming known causal structure. We prove counterfactual identifiability of monotonic generation mechanisms with single dimensional exogenous variables. For general generation mechanisms with multi-dimensional exogenous variables, we provide an impossibility result for counterfactual identifiability, motivating the need for parametric assumptions. As a practical approach, we propose a method for estimating worst-case errors of learned DSCMs' counterfactual predictions. The size of this error can be an essential metric for deciding whether or not DSCMs are a viable approach for counterfactual inference in a specific problem setting. In evaluation, our method confirms negligible counterfactual errors for an identifiable Structural Causal Model (SCM) from prior work, and also provides informative error bounds on counterfactual errors for a non-identifiable synthetic SCM.

Developing Hybrid Machine Learning Models to Assign Health Score to Railcar Fleets for Optimal Decision Making Mahyar Ejlali, Ebrahim Arian, Sajjad Taghiyeh, Kristina Chambers, Amir Hossein Sadeghi, Demet Cakdi, Robert B Handfield An expert hybrid predictive fault method is proposed based on fast-DBSCAN and PCA. Inspection data from 1986-2020 of North American Railcar Owner (NARO) is used. The model is able to predict future faults in the railcar fleet accurately. Abstract A large amount of data is generated during the operation of a railcar fleet, which can easily lead to dimensional disaster and reduce the resiliency of the railcar network. To solve these issues and offer predictive maintenance, this research introduces a hybrid fault diagnosis expert system method that combines density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) and principal component analysis (PCA). Firstly, the DBSCAN method is used to cluster categorical data that are similar to one another within the same group. Secondly, PCA algorithm is applied to reduce the dimensionality of the data and eliminate redundancy in order to improve the accuracy of fault diagnosis. Finally, we explain the engineered features and evaluate the selected models by using the Gain Chart and Area Under Curve (AUC) metrics. We use the hybrid expert system model to enhance maintenance planning decisions by assigning a health score to the railcar system of the North American Railcar Owner (NARO). According to the experimental results, our expert model can detect 96.4% of failures within 50% of the sample. This suggests that our method is effective at diagnosing failures in railcars fleet. Keywords: Expert system, Predictive maintenance, Railcar maintenance, Machine learning, Maintenance health score 1. Introduction Maintenance consists of activities that ensure the railcar assets continue to operate safely and reliably. These activities include inspection, repair, testing, and replacement of parts.

As a representative of public transportation, the fundamental issue of managing bike-sharing systems is bike flow prediction. Recent methods overemphasize the spatio-temporal correlations in the data, ignoring the effects of contextual conditions on the transportation system and the inter-regional timevarying causality. In addition, due to the disturbance of incomplete observations in the data, random contextual conditions lead to spurious correlations between data and features, making the prediction of the model ineffective in special scenarios. To overcome this issue, we propose a Spatio-temporal Neural Structure Causal Model(STNSCM) from the perspective of causality. First, we build a causal graph to describe the traffic prediction, and further analyze the causal relationship between the input data, contextual conditions, spatiotemporal states, and prediction results. Second, we propose to apply the frontdoor criterion to eliminate confounding biases in the feature extraction process. Finally, we propose a counterfactual representation reasoning module to extrapolate the spatio-temporal state under the factual scenario to future counterfactual scenarios to improve the prediction performance. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model, especially its resistance to fluctuations caused by the external environment. The source code and data will be released.

Causal models have proven extremely useful in offering formal representations of causal relationships between a set of variables. Yet in many situations we want to study both causal and non-causal relationships between a single set of variables; this cannot be done in a standard causal model. For example, a standard causal model cannot talk simultaneously about the level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (H DL), the level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), and the level of total cholesterol (T OT), although this seems quite natural. One can imagine a situation where we only have data regarding the level of total cholesterol, even though our causal model may say that certain health conditions depend on the amount of LDL. The problem is that standard causal models allow simultaneous interventions to all variables in the model. But we cannot intervene to simultaneously setLDL to120 mg/dL,HDL to70, andTOT to 180, for that is logically inconsistent! In this example, the variables have a part-whole relationship, rather than a causal relationship.