Why does a phenomenon occur? Addressing this question is central to most scientific inquiries based on empirical observations, and often heavily relies on simulations of scientific models. As models become more intricate, deciphering the causes behind these phenomena in high-dimensional spaces of interconnected variables becomes increasingly challenging. Causal machine learning may assist scientists in the discovery of relevant and interpretable patterns of causation in simulations. We introduce Targeted Causal Reduction (TCR), a method for turning complex models into a concise set of causal factors that explain a specific target phenomenon. We derive an information theoretic objective to learn TCR from interventional data or simulations and propose algorithms to optimize this objective efficiently. TCR's ability to generate interpretable high-level explanations from complex models is demonstrated on toy and mechanical systems, illustrating its potential to assist scientists in the study of complex phenomena in a broad range of disciplines.

Fault detection and diagnosis of electrical motors are of utmost importance in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of several industrial systems. Detection and diagnosis of faults at the incipient stage allows corrective actions to be taken in order to reduce the severity of faults. The existing data-driven deep learning approaches for machine fault diagnosis rely extensively on huge amounts of labeled samples, where annotations are expensive and time-consuming. However, a major portion of unlabeled condition monitoring data is not exploited in the training process. To overcome this limitation, we propose a foundational model-based Active Learning framework that utilizes less amount of labeled samples, which are most informative and harnesses a large amount of available unlabeled data by effectively combining Active Learning and Contrastive Self-Supervised Learning techniques. It consists of a transformer network-based backbone model trained using an advanced nearest-neighbor contrastive self-supervised learning method. This approach empowers the backbone to learn improved representations of samples derived from raw, unlabeled vibration data. Subsequently, the backbone can undergo fine-tuning to address a range of downstream tasks, both within the same machines and across different machines. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been assessed through the fine-tuning of the backbone for multiple target tasks using three distinct machine-bearing fault datasets. The experimental evaluation demonstrates a superior performance as compared to existing state-of-the-art fault diagnosis methods with less amount of labeled data.

Extensive research has been conducted on fault diagnosis of planetary gearboxes using vibration signals and deep learning (DL) approaches. However, DL-based methods are susceptible to the domain shift problem caused by varying operating conditions of the gearbox. Although domain adaptation and data synthesis methods have been proposed to overcome such domain shifts, they are often not directly applicable in real-world situations where only healthy data is available in the target domain. To tackle the challenge of extreme domain shift scenarios where only healthy data is available in the target domain, this paper proposes two novel domain knowledge-informed data synthesis methods utilizing the health data map (HDMap). The two proposed approaches are referred to as scaled CutPaste and FaultPaste. The HDMap is used to physically represent the vibration signal of the planetary gearbox as an image-like matrix, allowing for visualization of fault-related features. CutPaste and FaultPaste are then applied to generate faulty samples based on the healthy data in the target domain, using domain knowledge and fault signatures extracted from the source domain, respectively. In addition to generating realistic faults, the proposed methods introduce scaling of fault signatures for controlled synthesis of faults with various severity levels. A case study is conducted on a planetary gearbox testbed to evaluate the proposed approaches. The results show that the proposed methods are capable of accurately diagnosing faults, even in cases of extreme domain shift, and can estimate the severity of faults that have not been previously observed in the target domain.

Class imbalance (CI) in classification problems arises when the number of observations belonging to one class is lower than the other. Ensemble learning combines multiple models to obtain a robust model and has been prominently used with data augmentation methods to address class imbalance problems. In the last decade, a number of strategies have been added to enhance ensemble learning and data augmentation methods, along with new methods such as generative adversarial networks (GANs). A combination of these has been applied in many studies, and the evaluation of different combinations would enable a better understanding and guidance for different application domains. In this paper, we present a computational study to evaluate data augmentation and ensemble learning methods used to address prominent benchmark CI problems. We present a general framework that evaluates 9 data augmentation and 9 ensemble learning methods for CI problems. Our objective is to identify the most effective combination for improving classification performance on imbalanced datasets. The results indicate that combinations of data augmentation methods with ensemble learning can significantly improve classification performance on imbalanced datasets. We find that traditional data augmentation methods such as the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) and random oversampling (ROS) are not only better in performance for selected CI problems, but also computationally less expensive than GANs. Our study is vital for the development of novel models for handling imbalanced datasets.

Linear structural causal models (SCMs) are used to express and analyse the relationships between random variables. Direct causal effects are represented as directed edges and confounding factors as bidirected edges. Identifying the causal parameters from correlations between the nodes is an open problem in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we study SCMs whose directed component forms a tree. Van der Zander et al. (AISTATS'22, PLMR 151, pp. 6770--6792, 2022) give a PSPACE-algorithm for the identification problem in this case, which is a significant improvement over the general Gr\"obner basis approach, which has doubly-exponential time complexity in the number of structural parameters. In this work, we present a randomized polynomial-time algorithm, which solves the identification problem for tree-shaped SCMs. For every structural parameter, our algorithms decides whether it is generically identifiable, generically 2-identifiable, or generically unidentifiable. (No other cases can occur.) In the first two cases, it provides one or two fractional affine square root terms of polynomials (FASTPs) for the corresponding parameter, respectively.

This paper presents a modification of the datadriven sensor-based fault detection and diagnosis (SFDD) algorithm for online robot monitoring. Our version of the algorithm uses a collection of generative models, in particular restricted Boltzmann machines, each of which represents the distribution of sliding window correlations between a pair of correlated measurements. We use such models in a residual generation scheme, where high residuals generate conflict sets that are then used in a subsequent diagnosis step. As a proof of concept, the framework is evaluated on a mobile logistics robot for the problem of recognising Figure 1: Overview of our learning-based FDD schema disconnected wheels, such that the evaluation demonstrates the feasibility of the framework (on the faulty data set, the models obtained 88.6% The practical usefulness of the SFDD algorithm is significantly precision and 75.6% recall rates), but also shows affected by the choice of data modes that are to be that the monitoring results are influenced by the monitored during the operation of a robot, since an incomplete choice of distribution model and the model parameters or suboptimal choice of modes leads to either undetected as a whole.

Despite the remarkable results that can be achieved by data-driven intelligent fault diagnosis techniques, they presuppose the same distribution of training and test data as well as sufficient labeled data. Various operating states often exist in practical scenarios, leading to the problem of domain shift that hinders the effectiveness of fault diagnosis. While recent unsupervised domain adaptation methods enable cross-domain fault diagnosis, they struggle to effectively utilize information from multiple source domains and achieve effective diagnosis faults in multiple target domains simultaneously. In this paper, we innovatively proposed a weighted joint maximum mean discrepancy enabled multi-source-multi-target unsupervised domain adaptation (WJMMD-MDA), which realizes domain adaptation under multi-source-multi-target scenarios in the field of fault diagnosis for the first time. The proposed method extracts sufficient information from multiple labeled source domains and achieves domain alignment between source and target domains through an improved weighted distance loss. As a result, domain-invariant and discriminative features between multiple source and target domains are learned with cross-domain fault diagnosis realized. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated in comprehensive comparative experiments on three datasets, and the experimental results demonstrate the superiority of this method.

The accurate classification of lymphoma subtypes using hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained tissue is complicated by the wide range of morphological features these cancers can exhibit. We present LymphoML - an interpretable machine learning method that identifies morphologic features that correlate with lymphoma subtypes. Our method applies steps to process H&E-stained tissue microarray cores, segment nuclei and cells, compute features encompassing morphology, texture, and architecture, and train gradient-boosted models to make diagnostic predictions. LymphoML's interpretable models, developed on a limited volume of H&E-stained tissue, achieve non-inferior diagnostic accuracy to pathologists using whole-slide images and outperform black box deep-learning on a dataset of 670 cases from Guatemala spanning 8 lymphoma subtypes. Using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis, we assess the impact of each feature on model prediction and find that nuclear shape features are most discriminative for DLBCL (F1-score: 78.7%) and classical Hodgkin lymphoma (F1-score: 74.5%). Finally, we provide the first demonstration that a model combining features from H&E-stained tissue with features from a standardized panel of 6 immunostains results in a similar diagnostic accuracy (85.3%) to a 46-stain panel (86.1%).

A significant challenge for predictive maintenance in the pulp-and-paper industry is the infrequency of paper breaks during the production process. In this article, operational data is analyzed from a paper manufacturing machine in which paper breaks are relatively rare but have a high economic impact. Utilizing a dataset comprising 18,398 instances derived from a quality assurance protocol, we address the scarcity of break events (124 cases) that pose a challenge for machine learning predictive models. With the help of Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CTGAN) and Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), we implement a novel data augmentation framework. This method ensures that the synthetic data mirrors the distribution of the real operational data but also seeks to enhance the performance metrics of predictive modeling. Before and after the data augmentation, we evaluate three different machine learning algorithms-Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR). Utilizing the CTGAN-enhanced dataset, our study achieved significant improvements in predictive maintenance performance metrics. The efficacy of CTGAN in addressing data scarcity was evident, with the models' detection of machine breaks (Class 1) improving by over 30% for Decision Trees, 20% for Random Forest, and nearly 90% for Logistic Regression. With this methodological advancement, this study contributes to industrial quality control and maintenance scheduling by addressing rare event prediction in manufacturing processes.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last $k$ latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.