Increasing complexity of technical systems requires a precise fault localization in order to reduce maintenance costs and system downtimes. Model-based diagnosis has been presented as a method to derive root causes for observed symptoms, utilizing a description of the system to be diagnosed. Practical applications of model-based diagnosis, however, are often prevented by the initial modeling task and computational complexity associated with diagnosis. In the proposed thesis, we investigate techniques addressing these issues. In particular, we utilize a mapping function which converts fault information available in practice into propositional horn logic sentences to be used in abductive model-based diagnosis. Further, we plan on devising algorithms which allow an efficient computation of explanations given the obtained models.

Most approaches to causal discovery assume a fixed (or time-invariant) causal model; however, in practical situations, especially in neuroscience and economics, causal relations might be time-dependent for various reasons. This paper aims to identify the time-dependent causal relations from observational data. We consider general formulations for time-varying causal modeling on stochastic processes, which can also capture the causal influence from a certain type of unobserved confounders.  We focus on two issues: one is whether such a causal model, including the causal direction, is identifiable from observational data; the other is how to estimate such a model in a principled way. We show that under appropriate assumptions, the causal structure is identifiable according to our formulated model. We then propose a principled way for its estimation by extending Gaussian Process regression, which enables an automatic way to learn how the causal model changes over time. Experimental results on both artificial and real data demonstrate the practical usefulness of time-dependent causal modeling and the effectiveness of the proposed approach for estimation.

Model-Based Diagnosis (MBD) finds a growing number of uses in different settings, which include software fault localization, debugging of spreadsheets, web services, and hardware designs, but also the analysis of biological systems, among many others. Motivated by these different uses, there have been significant improvements made to MBD algorithms in recent years. Nevertheless, the analysis of larger and more complex systems motivates further improvements to existing approaches. This paper proposes a novel encoding of MBD into maximum satisfiability (MaxSAT). The new encoding builds on recent work on using Propositional Satisfiability (SAT) for MBD, but identifies a number of key optimizations that are very effective in practice. The paper also proposes a new set of challenging MBD instances, which can be used for evaluating new MBD approaches. Experimental results obtained on existing and on the new MBD problem instances, show conclusive performance gains over the current state of the art.

PDS (Process Diagnosis System) is an expert system shell developed in the early 1980's. It could handle thousands of sensor inputs and produce thousands of diagnostic messages with confidence factors based on complex logic designed to mimic the thinking of human experts. PDS went into commercial operation in 1985 to monitor seven power plant generators from a centralized diagnostic center at Westinghouse Power Generation headquarters. In the 1990’s the popularity of advanced technology gas turbines provided a renaissance in PDS utilization. The software has undergone rewrites and improvements since its inception, and the current PCPDS now supports the Siemens Power Diagnostics® Center with centralized rule based monitoring of over 1200 gas turbines, steam turbines, and generators.

Timed Failure Propagation Graphs (TFPGs) are a formalism used in industry to describe failure propagation in a dynamic partially observable system. TFPGs are commonly used to perform model-based diagnosis. As in any model-based diagnosis approach, however, the quality of the diagnosis strongly depends on the quality of the model. Approaches to certify the quality of the TFPG are limited and mainly rely on testing. In this work we address this problem by leveraging efficient Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) engines to perform exhaustive reasoning on TFPGs. We apply model-checking techniques to certify that a given TFPG satisfies (or not) a property of interest. Moreover, we discuss the problem of refinement and diagnosability testing and empirically show that our technique can be used to efficiently solve them.

Cyber-Physical Production Systems (CPPSs) are in the focus of research, industry and politics: By applying new IT and new computer science solutions, production systems will become more adaptable, more resource ef- ficient and more user friendly. The analysis and diagnosis of such systems is a major part of this trend: Plants should detect automatically wear, faults and suboptimal configurations. This paper reflects the current state-of- the-art in diagnosis against the requirements of CPPSs, identifies three main gaps and gives application scenarios to outline first ideas for potential solutions to close these gaps.

A known limitation of many diagnosis algorithms is that the number of diagnoses they return can be very large. This raises the question of how to use such a large set of diagnoses. For example, presenting hundreds of diagnoses to a human operator (charged with repairing the system) is meaningless. In various settings, including decision support for a human operator and automated troubleshooting processes, it is sufficient to be able to answer a basic diagnostic question: is a given component faulty? We propose a way to aggregate an arbitrarily large set of diagnoses to return an estimate of the likelihood of a given component to be faulty. The resulting mapping of components to their likelihood of being faulty is called the system's health state. We propose two metrics for evaluating the accuracy of a health state and show that an accurate health state can be found without finding all diagnoses. An empirical study explores the question of how many diagnoses are needed to obtain an accurate enough health state, and a simple online stopping criterion is proposed.

Model-Based Diagnosis techniques have been successfully applied to support a variety of fault-localization tasks both for hardware and software artifacts. In many applications, Reiter's hitting set algorithm has been used to determine the set of all diagnoses for a given problem. In order to construct the diagnoses with increasing cardinality, Reiter proposed a breadth-first search scheme in combination with different tree-pruning rules. Since many of today's computing devices have multi-core CPU architectures, we propose techniques to parallelize the construction of the tree to better utilize the computing resources without losing any diagnoses. Experimental evaluations using different benchmark problems show that parallelization can help to significantly reduce the required running times. Additional simulation experiments were performed to understand how the characteristics of the underlying problem structure impact the achieved performance gains.

This paper addresses a new problem concerning the evolution of influence relationships between communities in dynamic social networks. A weighted temporal multigraph is employed to represent the dynamics of the social networks and analyze the influence relationships between communities over time. To ensure the interpretability of the knowledge discovered, evolution of the influence relationships is assessed by introducing the Granger causality. Through extensive experiments, we empirically demonstrate the suitability of our model for studying the evolution of influence between communities. Moreover, we empirically show how our model is able to accurately predict the influence of communities over time using random forest regression.

The timely detection of leaks in water distribution systems is critical to the sustainable provision of clean water to consumers. Increasingly, water companies are deploying remote sensors to measure water flow in real-time in order to detect such leaks. However, in practice, for typical District Metering Zones (DMZ), financial constraints limit the number of deployable real time flow sensors/meters to one or two, thus constraining leak detection to be based on the aggregated flow being monitored at these point. Such aggregated flow data typically exhibits input signal dependence whereby both noise and leaks are dependent on the flow being measured. This limited monitoring and input signal dependance make conventional approaches based on simple thresholds unreliable for real time leak detection. To address this, we propose a Gaussian process (GP) model with an additive diagonal noise covariance that is able to handle the input dependant noise observed in this setting. A parameterised mean step change function is used to detect leaks and to estimate their size. Using prior water distribution systems (WDS) knowledge we dynamically bound and discretize the detection parameters of the step change mean function, reducing and pruning the parameter search space considerably. We evaluate the proposed noise scaled GP (NSGP) against both the latest researchwork on GP based fault detection methods and the current state of the art and applied leak detection approaches in water distribution systems. We show that our proposed method outperforms other approaches, on real water network data with synthetically generatedvtime varying leaks, with a detection accuracy of 99%, almost zero false positive detections and the lowest root mean squared error in leak magnitude estimation (0.065 l/s).