Interpretable surrogates of black-box predictors trained on high-dimensional tabular datasets can struggle to generate comprehensible explanations in the presence of correlated variables. We propose a model-agnostic interpretable surrogate that provides global and local explanations of black-box classifiers to address this issue. We introduce the idea of concepts as intuitive groupings of variables that are either defined by a domain expert or automatically discovered using correlation coefficients. Concepts are embedded in a surrogate decision tree to enhance its comprehensibility. First experiments on FRED-MD, a macroeconomic database with 134 variables, show improvement in human-interpretability while accuracy and fidelity of the surrogate model are preserved.

Prevalent theories in cognitive science propose that humans understand and represent the knowledge of the world through causal relationships. In making sense of the world, we build causal models in our mind to encode cause-effect relations of events and use these to explain why new events happen. In this paper, we use causal models to derive causal explanations of behaviour of reinforcement learning agents. We present an approach that learns a structural causal model during reinforcement learning and encodes causal relationships between variables of interest. This model is then used to generate explanations of behaviour based on counterfactual analysis of the causal model. We report on a study with 120 participants who observe agents playing a real-time strategy game (Starcraft II) and then receive explanations of the agents' behaviour. We investigated: 1) participants' understanding gained by explanations through task prediction; 2) explanation satisfaction and 3) trust. Our results show that causal model explanations perform better on these measures compared to two other baseline explanation models.

A decision tree is a supervised machine learning model used to predict a target by learning decision rules from features. As the name suggests, we can think of this model as breaking down our data by making a decision based on asking a series of questions. Let's consider the following example in which we use a decision tree to decide upon an activity on a particular day: Based on the features in our training set, the decision tree model learns a series of questions to infer the class labels of the samples. As we can see, decision trees are attractive models if we care about interpretability. Although the preceding figure illustrates the concept of a decision tree based on categorical targets (classification), the same concept applies if our targets are real numbers (regression).

Gifted students have a higher capabilities of understanding and learning. They are characterized by a high level of attention and a high performance in the classroom. Gifted children are defined in this paper as children who have a performance higher than the average group (59.64%). In order to predict gifted students from normal students, we conducted an experiment where 17 pupils have voluntarily participated in this study. We collected different types of data (gender, age, performance, initial average in math and EEG mental states) in a web platform to learn mathematics called NetMath. Participants were invited to respond to top-level exercises on the four basic operations in decimals. We trained different machine learning algorithms to predict gifted students. Our first results show that the decision tree could predict gifted students with an accuracy of 76.88%. Using J48 trees, we noticed also that two relevant features could determine gifted children: the relaxation extracted from EEG headset and the characteristic of strong student. A strong student is defined as a student who obtained a mean higher than the group’s mean in the first step evaluation in class.

Thanks to digitization of industrial assets in fleets, the ambitious goal of transferring fault diagnosis models fromone machine to the other has raised great interest. Solving these domain adaptive transfer learning tasks has the potential to save large efforts on manually labeling data and modifying models for new machines in the same fleet. Although data-driven methods have shown great potential in fault diagnosis applications, their ability to generalize on new machines and new working conditions are limited because of their tendency to overfit to the training set in reality. One promising solution to this problem is to use domain adaptation techniques. It aims to improve model performance on the target new machine. Inspired by its successful implementation in computer vision, we introduced Domain-Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) to our context, along with two other popular methods existing in previous fault diagnosis research. We then carefully justify the applicability of these methods in realistic fault diagnosis settings, and offer a unified experimental protocol for a fair comparison between domain adaptation methods for fault diagnosis problems.

The humanity has been facing a plethora of challenges associated with infectious diseases, which kill more than 6 million people a year. Although continuous efforts have been applied to relieve the potential damages from such misfortunate events, it is unquestionable that there are many persisting challenges yet to overcome. One related issue we particularly address here is the assessment and prediction of such epidemics. In this field of study, traditional and ad-hoc models frequently fail to provide proper predictive situation awareness (PSAW), characterized by understanding the current situations and predicting the future situations. Comprehensive PSAW for infectious disease can support decision making and help to hinder disease spread. In this paper, we develop a computing system platform focusing on collective intelligence causal modeling, in order to support PSAW in the domain of infectious disease. Analyses of global epidemics require integration of multiple different data and models, which can be originated from multiple independent researchers. These models should be integrated to accurately assess and predict the infectious disease in terms of holistic view. The system shall provide three main functions: (1) collaborative causal modeling, (2) causal model integration, and (3) causal model reasoning. These functions are supported by subject-matter expert and artificial intelligence (AI), with uncertainty treatment. Subject-matter experts, as collective intelligence, develop causal models and integrate them as one joint causal model. The integrated causal model shall be used to reason about: (1) the past, regarding how the causal factors have occurred; (2) the present, regarding how the spread is going now; and (3) the future, regarding how it will proceed. Finally, we introduce one use case of predictive situation awareness for the Ebola virus disease.

Decision tree algorithms have been among the most popular algorithms for interpretable (transparent) machine learning since the early 1980's. The problem that has plagued decision tree algorithms since their inception is their lack of optimality, or lack of guarantees of closeness to optimality: decision tree algorithms are often greedy or myopic, and sometimes produce unquestionably suboptimal models. Hardness of decision tree optimization is both a theoretical and practical obstacle, and even careful mathematical programming approaches have not been able to solve these problems efficiently. This work introduces the first practical algorithm for optimal decision trees for binary variables. The algorithm is a co-design of analytical bounds that reduce the search space and modern systems techniques, including data structures and a custom bit-vector library. We highlight possible steps to improving the scalability and speed of future generations of this algorithm based on insights from our theory and experiments.

As one type of machine-learning model, a "decision-tree ensemble model" (DTEM) is represented by a set of decision trees. A DTEM is mainly known to be valid for structured data; however, like other machine-learning models, it is difficult to train so that it returns the correct output value for any input value. Accordingly, when a DTEM is used in regard to a system that requires reliability, it is important to comprehensively detect input values that lead to malfunctions of a system (failures) during development and take appropriate measures. One conceivable solution is to install an input filter that controls the input to the DTEM, and to use separate software to process input values that may lead to failures. To develop the input filter, it is necessary to specify the filtering condition of the input value that leads to the malfunction of the system. Given that necessity, in this paper, we propose a method for formally verifying a DTEM and, according to the result of the verification, if an input value leading to a failure is found, extracting the range in which such an input value exists. The proposed method can comprehensively extract the range in which the input value leading to the failure exists; therefore, by creating an input filter based on that range, it is possible to prevent the failure occurring in the system. In this paper, the algorithm of the proposed method is described, and the results of a case study using a dataset of house prices are presented. On the basis of those results, the feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated, and its scalability is evaluated.

Inferring a decision tree from a given dataset is one of the classic problems in machine learning. This problem consists of buildings, from a labelled dataset, a tree such that each node corresponds to a class and a path between the tree root and a leaf corresponds to a conjunction of features to be satisfied in this class. Following the principle of parsimony, we want to infer a minimal tree consistent with the dataset. Unfortunately, inferring an optimal decision tree is known to be NP-complete for several definitions of optimality. Hence, the majority of existing approaches relies on heuristics, and as for the few exact inference approaches, they do not work on large data sets. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for inferring a decision tree of a minimum depth based on the incremental generation of Boolean formula. The experimental results indicate that it scales sufficiently well and the time it takes to run grows slowly with the size of dataset.

Finding the source of a disturbance or fault in complex systems such as industrial chemical processing plants can be a difficult task and consume a significant number of engineering hours. In many cases, a systematic elimination procedure is considered to be the only feasible approach but can cause undesired process upsets. Practitioners desire robust alternative approaches. This paper presents an unsupervised, data-driven method for ranking process elements according to the magnitude and novelty of their influence. Partial bivariate transfer entropy estimation is used to infer a weighted directed graph of process elements. Eigenvector centrality is applied to rank network nodes according to their overall effect. As the ranking of process elements rely on emerging properties that depend on the aggregate of many connections, the results are robust to errors in the estimation of individual edge properties and the inclusion of indirect connections that do not represent the true causal structure of the process. A monitoring chart of continuously calculated process element importance scores over multiple overlapping time regions can assist with incipient fault detection. Ranking results combined with visual inspection of information transfer networks is also useful for root cause analysis of known faults and disturbances. A software implementation of the proposed method is available.