"Between 12 to 18 million Americans every year will experience some sort of diagnostic error," said Paul Cerrato, a journalist and researcher. "So the question is: Why such a huge number? And what can we do better in terms of reinventing the tools so they catch these conditions more effectively?" Cerrato is co-author, alongside Dr. John Halamka, newly minted president of Mayo Clinic Platform, of the new HIMSS Book Series edition, Reinventing Clinical Decision Support: Data Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, and Diagnostic Reasoning. At HIMSS20, the two of them will discuss the book, and the bigger picture around CDS tools that are fast being transformed by the advent of artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data analytics.

This paper introduces timeline trees, which are partial models of partially observable environments. Timeline trees are given some specific predictions to make and learn a decision tree over history. The main idea of timeline trees is to use temporally abstract features to identify and split on features of key events, spread arbitrarily far apart in the past (whereas previous decision-tree-based methods have been limited to a finite suffix of history). Experiments demonstrate that timeline trees can learn to make high quality predictions in complex, partially observable environments with high-dimensional observations (e.g. an arcade game). Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We consider testing and learning problems on causal Bayesian networks as defined by Pearl (Pearl, 2009). Given a causal Bayesian network M on a graph with n discrete variables and bounded in-degree and bounded confounded components'', we show that O(log n) interventions on an unknown causal Bayesian network X on the same graph, and O(n/epsilon 2) samples per intervention, suffice to efficiently distinguish whether X M or whether there exists some intervention under which X and M are farther than epsilon in total variation distance. We also obtain sample/time/intervention efficient algorithms for: (i) testing the identity of two unknown causal Bayesian networks on the same graph; and (ii) learning a causal Bayesian network on a given graph. Although our algorithms are non-adaptive, we show that adaptivity does not help in general: Omega(log n) interventions are necessary for testing the identity of two unknown causal Bayesian networks on the same graph, even adaptively. Our algorithms are enabled by a new subadditivity inequality for the squared Hellinger distance between two causal Bayesian networks.

Multi-layered distributed representation is believed to be the key ingredient of deep neural networks especially in cognitive tasks like computer vision. While non-differentiable models such as gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs) are still the dominant methods for modeling discrete or tabular data, they are hard to incorporate with such representation learning ability. In this work, we propose the multi-layered GBDT forest (mGBDTs), with an explicit emphasis on exploring the ability to learn hierarchical distributed representations by stacking several layers of regression GBDTs as its building block. The model can be jointly trained by a variant of target propagation across layers, without the need to derive backpropagation nor differentiability. Experiments confirmed the effectiveness of the model in terms of performance and representation learning ability.

Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) is a popular machine learning algorithm, and has quite a few effective implementations such as XGBoost and pGBRT. Although many engineering optimizations have been adopted in these implementations, the efficiency and scalability are still unsatisfactory when the feature dimension is high and data size is large. A major reason is that for each feature, they need to scan all the data instances to estimate the information gain of all possible split points, which is very time consuming. To tackle this problem, we propose two novel techniques: \emph{Gradient-based One-Side Sampling} (GOSS) and \emph{Exclusive Feature Bundling} (EFB). With GOSS, we exclude a significant proportion of data instances with small gradients, and only use the rest to estimate the information gain.

Decision trees and randomized forests are widely used in computer vision and machine learning. This greedy procedure often leads to suboptimal trees. In this paper, we present an algorithm for optimizing the split functions at all levels of the tree jointly with the leaf parameters, based on a global objective. We show that the problem of finding optimal linear-combination (oblique) splits for decision trees is related to structured prediction with latent variables, and we formulate a convex-concave upper bound on the tree's empirical loss. Computing the gradient of the proposed surrogate objective with respect to each training exemplar is O(d 2), where d is the tree depth, and thus training deep trees is feasible.

Decision tree (and its extensions such as Gradient Boosting Decision Trees and Random Forest) is a widely used machine learning algorithm, due to its practical effectiveness and model interpretability. With the emergence of big data, there is an increasing need to parallelize the training process of decision tree. However, most existing attempts along this line suffer from high communication costs. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called \emph{Parallel Voting Decision Tree (PV-Tree)}, to tackle this challenge. After partitioning the training data onto a number of (e.g., $M$) machines, this algorithm performs both local voting and global voting in each iteration. For local voting, the top-$k$ attributes are selected from each machine according to its local data.

Learning a decision tree from data is a difficult optimization problem. The most widespread algorithm in practice, dating to the 1980s, is based on a greedy growth of the tree structure by recursively splitting nodes, and possibly pruning back the final tree. The parameters (decision function) of an internal node are approximately estimated by minimizing an impurity measure. We give an algorithm that, given an input tree (its structure and the parameter values at its nodes), produces a new tree with the same or smaller structure but new parameter values that provably lower or leave unchanged the misclassification error. This can be applied to both axis-aligned and oblique trees and our experiments show it consistently outperforms various other algorithms while being highly scalable to large datasets and trees.

Decision trees and random forests are well established models that not only offer good predictive performance, but also provide rich feature importance information. While practitioners often employ variable importance methods that rely on this impurity-based information, these methods remain poorly characterized from a theoretical perspective. We provide novel insights into the performance of these methods by deriving finite sample performance guarantees in a high-dimensional setting under various modeling assumptions. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of these impurity-based methods via an extensive set of simulations. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

With the rapid development of manufacturing industry, machine fault diagnosis has become increasingly significant to ensure safe equipment operation and production. Consequently, multifarious approaches have been explored and developed in the past years, of which intelligent algorithms develop particularly rapidly. Convolutional neural network, as a typical representative of intelligent diagnostic models, has been extensively studied and applied in recent five years, and a large amount of literature has been published in academic journals and conference proceedings. However, there has not been a systematic review to cover these studies and make a prospect for the further research. To fill in this gap, this work attempts to review and summarize the development of the Convolutional Network based Fault Diagnosis (CNFD) approaches comprehensively. Generally, a typical CNFD framework is composed of the following steps, namely, data collection, model construction, and feature learning and decision making, thus this paper is organized by following this stream. Firstly, data collection process is described, in which several popular datasets are introduced. Then, the fundamental theory from the basic convolutional neural network to its variants is elaborated. After that, the applications of CNFD are reviewed in terms of three mainstream directions, i.e. classification, prediction and transfer diagnosis. Finally, conclusions and prospects are presented to point out the characteristics of current development, facing challenges and future trends. Last but not least, it is expected that this work would provide convenience and inspire further exploration for researchers in this field.