Intermediate-Severity (IS) faults present milder symptoms compared to severe faults, and are more difficult to detect and diagnose due to their close resemblance to normal operating conditions. The lack of IS fault examples in the training data can pose severe risks to Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) methods that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) techniques, because these faults can be easily mistaken as normal operating conditions. Ensemble models are widely applied in ML and are considered promising methods for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We identify common pitfalls in these models through extensive experiments with several popular ensemble models on two real-world datasets. Then, we discuss how to design more effective ensemble models for detecting and diagnosing IS faults.

The existence of a security vulnerability in a system does not necessarily mean that it can be exploited. In this research, we introduce Autosploit -- an automated framework for evaluating the exploitability of vulnerabilities. Given a vulnerable environment and relevant exploits, Autosploit will automatically test the exploits on different configurations of the environment in order to identify the specific properties necessary for successful exploitation of the existing vulnerabilities. Since testing all possible system configurations is infeasible, we introduce an efficient approach for testing and searching through all possible configurations of the environment. The efficient testing process implemented by Autosploit is based on two algorithms: generalized binary splitting and Barinel, which are used for noiseless and noisy environments respectively. We implemented the proposed framework and evaluated it using real vulnerabilities. The results show that Autosploit is able to automatically identify the system properties that affect the ability to exploit a vulnerability in both noiseless and noisy environments. These important results can be utilized for more accurate and effective risk assessment.

"All our wisdom is stored in the trees" -- Santosh Kalwar

Machine Learning algorithms have always been on the path towards evolution since its inception. Today the domain has come a long way from mathematical modelling to ensemble modelling and more. This evolution has seen more robust and SOTA models which is almost bridging the gap between potentials capabilities of human and AI. Ensemble modelling has given us one of those SOTA model XGBoost. Recently I happened to participate in a Machine Learning Hiring Challenge where the problem statement was a classification problem.

Everyday use of artificial intelligence for health diagnosis could still be years away, but the field is robust right now. "We still have a lot of unknowns in terms of generalizing and validation of these systems before we can start using them as standard of care," Dr. Matthew Hanna, a pathologist at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York City, told United Press International earlier this month. On the one hand, this is not surprising: The history of artificial intelligence (AI) is a history of overcommitment and underdelivery in real-world "production" environments. But on closer inspection, AI is highly useful in medicine as opposed to other domains and will rapidly increase in usage. The UPI article highlights people's desire to see a human doctor and not trusting a machine's subtleties as a principal factor in their choosing a person rather than the AI. Additionally, it points to the additional long-term testing needed before autonomous AI diagnostic systems can be widely installed.

We investigate spatio-temporal prediction and introduce a novel prediction algorithm. Our approach is based on the point processes, which we use to model the event arrivals in both space and time. Although we specifically use the Hawkes process, other processes can be readily used as provided remarks in the paper. Moreover, we partition the given spatial region into subregions by an adaptive decision tree and model each subregion with individual and interacting point processes. With individual point processes for each subregion, we estimate the time and location of the events using the past event times and locations. Furthermore, thanks to the nonstationary and self-exciting point generation mechanism in the Hawkes process and the adaptive partitioning of the space, we model the data as nonstationary in both time and space. Finally, we provide a gradient based joint optimization algorithm for the adaptive tree parameter and the point process parameters. With the joint optimization, our algorithm can infer the source statistics and adaptive partitioning of the region. We also provide a training algorithm for the online setup, where we update the model parameters with newly arrived points. We provide experimental results on both simulated data and real-life data where we compare our approach with the standard approaches and demonstrate significant performance improvements thanks to the adaptive spatial partitioning mechanism and the joint optimization procedure.

Decision trees are a widely used method for classification, both by themselves and as the building blocks of multiple different ensemble learning methods. The Max-Cut decision tree involves novel modifications to a standard, baseline model of classification decision tree construction, precisely CART Gini. One modification involves an alternative splitting metric, maximum cut, based on maximizing the distance between all pairs of observations belonging to separate classes and separate sides of the threshold value. The other modification is to select the decision feature from a linear combination of the input features constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) locally at each node. Our experiments show that this node-based localized PCA with the novel splitting modification can dramatically improve classification, while also significantly decreasing computational time compared to the baseline decision tree. Moreover, our results are most significant when evaluated on data sets with higher dimensions, or more classes; which, for the example data set CIFAR-100, enable a 49% improvement in accuracy while reducing CPU time by 94%. These introduced modifications dramatically advance the capabilities of decision trees for difficult classification tasks.

Identifying causal relationships for a treatment intervention is a fundamental problem in health sciences. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for identifying causal relationships. However, recent advancements in the theory of causal inference based on the foundations of structural causal models (SCMs) have allowed the identification of causal relationships from observational data, under certain assumptions. Survival analysis provides standard measures, such as the hazard ratio, to quantify the effects of an intervention. While hazard ratios are widely used in clinical and epidemiological studies for RCTs, a principled approach does not exist to compute hazard ratios for observational studies with SCMs. In this work, we review existing approaches to compute hazard ratios as well as their causal interpretation, if it exists. We also propose a novel approach to compute hazard ratios from observational studies using backdoor adjustment through SCMs and do-calculus. Finally, we evaluate the approach using experimental data for Ewing's sarcoma.

Model selection consists in comparing several candidate models according to a metric to be optimized. The process often involves a grid search, or such, and cross-validation, which can be time consuming, as well as not providing much information about the dataset itself. In this paper we propose a method to reduce the scope of exploration needed for the task. The idea is to quantify how much it would be necessary to depart from trained instances of a given family, reference models (RMs) carrying `rigid' decision boundaries (e.g. decision trees), so as to obtain an equivalent or better model. In our approach, this is realized by progressively relaxing the decision boundaries of the initial decision trees (the RMs) as long as this is beneficial in terms of performance measured on an analyzed dataset. More specifically, this relaxation is performed by making use of a neural decision tree, which is a neural network built from DTs. The final model produced by our method carries non-linear decision boundaries. Measuring the performance of the final model, and its agreement to its seeding RM can help the user to figure out on which family of models he should focus on.

One of the critical challenges in machine learning applications is to have fair predictions. There are numerous recent examples in various domains that convincingly show that algorithms trained with biased datasets can easily lead to erroneous or discriminatory conclusions. This is even more crucial in clinical applications where the predictive algorithms are designed mainly based on a limited or given set of medical images and demographic variables such as age, sex and race are not taken into account. In this work, we conduct a survey of the MICCAI 2018 proceedings to investigate the common practice in medical image analysis applications. Surprisingly, we found that papers focusing on diagnosis rarely describe the demographics of the datasets used, and the diagnosis is purely based on images. In order to highlight the importance of considering the demographics in diagnosis tasks, we used a publicly available dataset of skin lesions. We then demonstrate that a classifier with an overall area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 has variable performance between 0.76 and 0.91 on subgroups based on age and sex, even though the training set was relatively balanced. Moreover, we show that it is possible to learn unbiased features by explicitly using demographic variables in an adversarial training setup, which leads to balanced scores per subgroups. Finally, we discuss the implications of these results and provide recommendations for further research.