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Robust Load Prediction of Power Network Clusters Based on Cloud-Model-Improved Transformer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Load data from power network clusters indicates economic development in each area, crucial for predicting regional trends and guiding power enterprise decisions. The Transformer model, a leading method for load prediction, faces challenges modeling historical data due to variables like weather, events, festivals, and data volatility. To tackle this, the cloud model's fuzzy feature is utilized to manage uncertainties effectively. Presenting an innovative approach, the Cloud Model Improved Transformer (CMIT) method integrates the Transformer model with the cloud model utilizing the particle swarm optimization algorithm, with the aim of achieving robust and precise power load predictions. Through comparative experiments conducted on 31 real datasets within a power network cluster, it is demonstrated that CMIT significantly surpasses the Transformer model in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby highlighting its effectiveness in enhancing forecasting capabilities within the power network cluster sector.


Modeling Urban Transport Choices: Incorporating Sociocultural Aspects

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

By understanding how users decide on their commuting modes, it is possible to identify factors that can be influenced to change travel behavior and promote the adoption of more sustainable transportation modes. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is particularly valuable for this purpose, as it can represent complex systems like transportation and identify emerging collective behaviors resulting from the autonomous decisions of transport users interacting among them and with the environment (Kagho, Balac, and Axhausen 2020). These capabilities make ABM suitable for analyzing the impacts of transport policies (Wise, Crooks, and Batty 2017). However, the application of ABM in analyzing transport mode choices has been limited and studies have been conducted predominantly in developed countries (Cadavid and Salazar-Serna 2021; Salazar-Serna, Cadavid, Franco, and Carley 2023). The effectiveness of these findings may not extend seamlessly to developing regions due to different contextual policy needs and the distinct ways socioeconomic and cultural factors influence human behavior (Carley 1991; Salazar-Serna et al. 2023). Therefore, policies that have been successful in one setting might not achieve similar outcomes in another. Previous studies in transportation have identified various determinants affecting mode choice. These factors can be grouped into several categories: sociodemographic characteristics such as age, sex, occupation, and income level (Ashalatha et al. 2013); travel habits including distance traveled, travel time, origin-destination pairs, and trip purpose (Madhuwanthi et al. 2016); and attributes of the built environment like design, density, and capacity (Ewing and Cervero 2010). Additionally, attitudes and perceptions regarding transport modes, which cover aspects such as comfort, cost, security, safety, quality, and reliability, play a crucial role (Fu 2021).


Architectural Influence on Variational Quantum Circuits in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: Evolutionary Strategies for Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has found application in numerous areas of science and industry, such as autonomous driving, telecommunications, and global health. Nevertheless, MARL suffers from, for instance, an exponential growth of dimensions. Inherent properties of quantum mechanics help to overcome these limitations, e.g., by significantly reducing the number of trainable parameters. Previous studies have developed an approach that uses gradient-free quantum Reinforcement Learning and evolutionary optimization for variational quantum circuits (VQCs) to reduce the trainable parameters and avoid barren plateaus as well as vanishing gradients. This leads to a significantly better performance of VQCs compared to classical neural networks with a similar number of trainable parameters and a reduction in the number of parameters by more than 97 \% compared to similarly good neural networks. We extend an approach of K\"olle et al. by proposing a Gate-Based, a Layer-Based, and a Prototype-Based concept to mutate and recombine VQCs. Our results show the best performance for mutation-only strategies and the Gate-Based approach. In particular, we observe a significantly better score, higher total and own collected coins, as well as a superior own coin rate for the best agent when evaluated in the Coin Game environment.


Non-Bayesian Social Learning with Multiview Observations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Non-Bayesian social learning enables multiple agents to conduct networked signal and information processing through observing environmental signals and information aggregating. Traditional non-Bayesian social learning models only consider single signals, limiting their applications in scenarios where multiple viewpoints of information are available. In this work, we exploit, in the information aggregation step, the independently learned results from observations taken from multiple viewpoints and propose a novel non-Bayesian social learning model for scenarios with multiview observations. We prove the convergence of the model under traditional assumptions and provide convergence conditions for the algorithm in the presence of misleading signals. Through theoretical analyses and numerical experiments, we validate the strong reliability and robustness of the proposed algorithm, showcasing its potential for real-world applications.


Mimicking the Mavens: Agent-based Opinion Synthesis and Emotion Prediction for Social Media Influencers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting influencers' views and public sentiment on social media is crucial for anticipating societal trends and guiding strategic responses. This study introduces a novel computational framework to predict opinion leaders' perspectives and the emotive reactions of the populace, addressing the inherent challenges posed by the unstructured, context-sensitive, and heterogeneous nature of online communication. Our research introduces an innovative module that starts with the automatic 5W1H (Where, Who, When, What, Why, and How) questions formulation engine, tailored to emerging news stories and trending topics. We then build a total of 60 anonymous opinion leader agents in six domains and realize the views generation based on an enhanced large language model (LLM) coupled with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Subsequently, we synthesize the potential views of opinion leaders and predicted the emotional responses to different events. The efficacy of our automated 5W1H module is corroborated by an average GPT-4 score of 8.83/10, indicative of high fidelity. The influencer agents exhibit a consistent performance, achieving an average GPT-4 rating of 6.85/10 across evaluative metrics. Utilizing the 'Russia-Ukraine War' as a case study, our methodology accurately foresees key influencers' perspectives and aligns emotional predictions with real-world sentiment trends in various domains.


Amelia: A Large Model and Dataset for Airport Surface Movement Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing demand for air travel requires technological advancements in air traffic management as well as mechanisms for monitoring and ensuring safe and efficient operations. In terminal airspaces, predictive models of future movements and traffic flows can help with proactive planning and efficient coordination; however, varying airport topologies, and interactions with other agents, among other factors, make accurate predictions challenging. Data-driven predictive models have shown promise for handling numerous variables to enable various downstream tasks, including collision risk assessment, taxi-out time prediction, departure metering, and emission estimations. While data-driven methods have shown improvements in these tasks, prior works lack large-scale curated surface movement datasets within the public domain and the development of generalizable trajectory forecasting models. In response to this, we propose two contributions: (1) Amelia-48, a large surface movement dataset collected using the System Wide Information Management (SWIM) Surface Movement Event Service (SMES). With data collection beginning in Dec 2022, the dataset provides more than a year's worth of SMES data (~30TB) and covers 48 airports within the US National Airspace System. In addition to releasing this data in the public domain, we also provide post-processing scripts and associated airport maps to enable research in the forecasting domain and beyond. (2) Amelia-TF model, a transformer-based next-token-prediction large multi-agent multi-airport trajectory forecasting model trained on 292 days or 9.4 billion tokens of position data encompassing 10 different airports with varying topology. The open-sourced model is validated on unseen airports with experiments showcasing the different prediction horizon lengths, ego-agent selection strategies, and training recipes to demonstrate the generalization capabilities.


Quantum Computing and Neuromorphic Computing for Safe, Reliable, and explainable Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: Optimal Control in Autonomous Robotics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates the utilization of Quantum Computing and Neuromorphic Computing for Safe, Reliable, and Explainable Multi_Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) in the context of optimal control in autonomous robotics. The objective was to address the challenges of optimizing the behavior of autonomous agents while ensuring safety, reliability, and explainability. Quantum Computing techniques, including Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA), were employed to efficiently explore large solution spaces and find approximate solutions to complex MARL problems. Neuromorphic Computing, inspired by the architecture of the human brain, provided parallel and distributed processing capabilities, which were leveraged to develop intelligent and adaptive systems. The combination of these technologies held the potential to enhance the safety, reliability, and explainability of MARL in autonomous robotics. This research contributed to the advancement of autonomous robotics by exploring cutting-edge technologies and their applications in multi-agent systems. Codes and data are available.


MindSearch: Mimicking Human Minds Elicits Deep AI Searcher

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Information seeking and integration is a complex cognitive task that consumes enormous time and effort. Inspired by the remarkable progress of Large Language Models, recent works attempt to solve this task by combining LLMs and search engines. However, these methods still obtain unsatisfying performance due to three challenges: (1) complex requests often cannot be accurately and completely retrieved by the search engine once (2) corresponding information to be integrated is spread over multiple web pages along with massive noise, and (3) a large number of web pages with long contents may quickly exceed the maximum context length of LLMs. Inspired by the cognitive process when humans solve these problems, we introduce MindSearch to mimic the human minds in web information seeking and integration, which can be instantiated by a simple yet effective LLM-based multi-agent framework. The WebPlanner models the human mind of multi-step information seeking as a dynamic graph construction process: it decomposes the user query into atomic sub-questions as nodes in the graph and progressively extends the graph based on the search result from WebSearcher. Tasked with each sub-question, WebSearcher performs hierarchical information retrieval with search engines and collects valuable information for WebPlanner. The multi-agent design of MindSearch enables the whole framework to seek and integrate information parallelly from larger-scale (e.g., more than 300) web pages in 3 minutes, which is worth 3 hours of human effort. MindSearch demonstrates significant improvement in the response quality in terms of depth and breadth, on both close-set and open-set QA problems. Besides, responses from MindSearch based on InternLM2.5-7B are preferable by humans to ChatGPT-Web and Perplexity.ai applications, which implies that MindSearch can already deliver a competitive solution to the proprietary AI search engine.


Finite-Time Analysis of Asynchronous Multi-Agent TD Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research endeavours have theoretically shown the beneficial effect of cooperation in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). In a setting involving $N$ agents, this beneficial effect usually comes in the form of an $N$-fold linear convergence speedup, i.e., a reduction - proportional to $N$ - in the number of iterations required to reach a certain convergence precision. In this paper, we show for the first time that this speedup property also holds for a MARL framework subject to asynchronous delays in the local agents' updates. In particular, we consider a policy evaluation problem in which multiple agents cooperate to evaluate a common policy by communicating with a central aggregator. In this setting, we study the finite-time convergence of \texttt{AsyncMATD}, an asynchronous multi-agent temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm in which agents' local TD update directions are subject to asynchronous bounded delays. Our main contribution is providing a finite-time analysis of \texttt{AsyncMATD}, for which we establish a linear convergence speedup while highlighting the effect of time-varying asynchronous delays on the resulting convergence rate.


Empowered Neural Cellular Automata

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Information-theoretic fitness functions are becoming increasingly popular to produce generally useful, task-independent behaviors. One such universal function, dubbed empowerment, measures the amount of control an agent exerts on its environment via its sensorimotor system. Specifically, empowerment attempts to maximize the mutual information between an agent's actions and its received sensor states at a later point in time. Traditionally, empowerment has been applied to a conventional sensorimotor apparatus, such as a robot. Here, we expand the approach to a distributed, multi-agent sensorimotor system embodied by a neural cellular automaton (NCA). We show that the addition of empowerment as a secondary objective in the evolution of NCA to perform the task of morphogenesis, growing and maintaining a pre-specified shape, results in higher fitness compared to evolving for morphogenesis alone. Results suggest there may be a synergistic relationship between morphogenesis and empowerment. That is, indirectly selecting for coordination between neighboring cells over the duration of development is beneficial to the developmental process itself. Such a finding may have applications in developmental biology by providing potential mechanisms of communication between cells during growth from a single cell to a multicellular, target morphology. Source code for the experiments in this paper can be found at: \url{https://github.com/caitlingrasso/empowered-nca}.