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Conformal Trajectory Prediction with Multi-View Data Integration in Cooperative Driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current research on trajectory prediction primarily relies on data collected by onboard sensors of an ego vehicle. With the rapid advancement in connected technologies, such as vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication, valuable information from alternate views becomes accessible via wireless networks. The integration of information from alternative views has the potential to overcome the inherent limitations associated with a single viewpoint, such as occlusions and limited field of view. In this work, we introduce V2INet, a novel trajectory prediction framework designed to model multi-view data by extending existing single-view models. Unlike previous approaches where the multi-view data is manually fused or formulated as a separate training stage, our model supports end-to-end training, enhancing both flexibility and performance. Moreover, the predicted multimodal trajectories are calibrated by a post-hoc conformal prediction module to get valid and efficient confidence regions. We evaluated the entire framework using the real-world V2I dataset V2X-Seq. Our results demonstrate superior performance in terms of Final Displacement Error (FDE) and Miss Rate (MR) using a single GPU. The code is publicly available at: \url{https://github.com/xichennn/V2I_trajectory_prediction}.


A Decomposition of Interaction Force for Multi-Agent Co-Manipulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent human-robot co-manipulation is a poorly understood process with many inputs that potentially affect agent behavior. This paper explores one such input known as interaction force. Interaction force is potentially a primary component in communication that occurs during co-manipulation. There are, however, many different perspectives and definitions of interaction force in the literature. Therefore, a decomposition of interaction force is proposed that provides a consistent way of ascertaining the state of an agent relative to the group for multi-agent co-manipulation. This proposed method extends a current definition from one to four degrees of freedom, does not rely on a predefined object path, and is independent of the number of agents acting on the system and their locations and input wrenches (forces and torques). In addition, all of the necessary measures can be obtained by a self-contained robotic system, allowing for a more flexible and adaptive approach for future co-manipulation robot controllers.


"A Good Bot Always Knows Its Limitations": Assessing Autonomous System Decision-making Competencies through Factorized Machine Self-confidence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How can intelligent machines assess their competencies in completing tasks? This question has come into focus for autonomous systems that algorithmically reason and make decisions under uncertainty. It is argued here that machine self-confidence - a form of meta-reasoning based on self-assessments of an agent's knowledge about the state of the world and itself, as well as its ability to reason about and execute tasks - leads to many eminently computable and useful competency indicators for such agents. This paper presents a culmination of work on this concept in the form of a computational framework called Factorized Machine Self-confidence (FaMSeC), which provides a holistic engineering-focused description of factors driving an algorithmic decision-making process, including: outcome assessment, solver quality, model quality, alignment quality, and past experience. In FaMSeC, self confidence indicators are derived from hierarchical `problem-solving statistics' embedded within broad classes of probabilistic decision-making algorithms such as Markov decision processes. The problem-solving statistics are obtained by evaluating and grading probabilistic exceedance margins with respect to given competency standards, which are specified for each of the various decision-making competency factors by the informee (e.g. a non-expert user or an expert system designer). This approach allows `algorithmic goodness of fit' evaluations to be easily incorporated into the design of many kinds of autonomous agents in the form of human-interpretable competency self-assessment reports. Detailed descriptions and application examples for a Markov decision process agent show how two of the FaMSeC factors (outcome assessment and solver quality) can be computed and reported for a range of possible tasking contexts through novel use of meta-utility functions, behavior simulations, and surrogate prediction models.


Y Social: an LLM-powered Social Media Digital Twin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online social media (OSM henceforth) have revolutionized the way we exchange information. From the user's perspective, these digital ecosystems are largely effortless [136], enabling convenient ways of exchanging personal content [1], seeking information [129] and synchronizing with others [37]. This convenience has catalyzed a massive digital shift in social and information exchanges from offline to online settings [136], which has provided novel access to massive amounts of online data regarding human behaviour [141]. Unconstrained by geographical barriers, the massive adoption of social media has given rise to novel phenomena that are absent in in-person interactions, such as the influence of complexity and artificial intelligence. Complexity in social media is strongly related to the motto "more is different" [7]: the idea that the co-occurrence of many, even similar, interactions within the same context can lead to unexpected phenomena. Examples include acts as simple and seemingly insignificant as following another user, or re-sharing content. Taken individually, these actions can be understood in terms of a user's activity, psychology, and engagement [91, 97, 141], but when repeated by vast amounts of users, these actions can determine the unexpected rise


A self-adaptive system of systems architecture to enable its ad-hoc scalability: Unmanned Vehicle Fleet -- Mission Control Center Case study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here for your personal use. The definitive Version of Record was published in the 2023 7th International Conference on Intelligent Systems, Metaheuristics & Swarm Intelligence (ISMSI 2023), https://doi.org/10.1145/3596947.3596949. A System of Systems (SoS) comprises Constituent Systems (CSs) that interact to provide unique capabilities beyond any single CS. A key challenge in SoS is ad-hoc scalability, meaning the system size changes during operation by adding or removing CSs. This research focuses on an Unmanned Vehicle Fleet (UVF) as a practical SoS example, addressing uncertainties like mission changes, range extensions, and UV failures. The proposed solution involves a self-adaptive system that dynamically adjusts UVF architecture, allowing the Mission Control Center (MCC) to scale UVF size automatically based on performance criteria or manually by operator decision. A multi-agent environment and rule management engine were implemented to simulate and verify this approach. INTRODUCTION The System of Systems (SoS) terminology was created through multiple evolutionary steps [14].


Enabling High Data Throughput Reinforcement Learning on GPUs: A Domain Agnostic Framework for Data-Driven Scientific Research

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce WarpSci, a domain agnostic framework designed to overcome crucial system bottlenecks encountered in the application of reinforcement learning to intricate environments with vast datasets featuring high-dimensional observation or action spaces. Notably, our framework eliminates the need for data transfer between the CPU and GPU, enabling the concurrent execution of thousands of simulations on a single or multiple GPUs. This high data throughput architecture proves particularly advantageous for data-driven scientific research, where intricate environment models are commonly essential.


On the Resilience of Multi-Agent Systems with Malicious Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent systems, powered by large language models, have shown great abilities across various tasks due to the collaboration of expert agents, each focusing on a specific domain. However, when agents are deployed separately, there is a risk that malicious users may introduce malicious agents who generate incorrect or irrelevant results that are too stealthy to be identified by other non-specialized agents. Therefore, this paper investigates two essential questions: (1) What is the resilience of various multi-agent system structures (e.g., A$\rightarrow$B$\rightarrow$C, A$\leftrightarrow$B$\leftrightarrow$C) under malicious agents, on different downstream tasks? (2) How can we increase system resilience to defend against malicious agents? To simulate malicious agents, we devise two methods, AutoTransform and AutoInject, to transform any agent into a malicious one while preserving its functional integrity. We run comprehensive experiments on four downstream multi-agent systems tasks, namely code generation, math problems, translation, and text evaluation. Results suggest that the "hierarchical" multi-agent structure, i.e., A$\rightarrow$(B$\leftrightarrow$C), exhibits superior resilience with the lowest performance drop of $23.6\%$, compared to $46.4\%$ and $49.8\%$ of other two structures. Additionally, we show the promise of improving multi-agent system resilience by demonstrating that two defense methods, introducing an additional agent to review and correct messages or mechanisms for each agent to challenge others' outputs, can enhance system resilience. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/CUHK-ARISE/MAS-Resilience.


When AI Meets Finance (StockAgent): Large Language Model-based Stock Trading in Simulated Real-world Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Can AI Agents simulate real-world trading environments to investigate the impact of external factors on stock trading activities (e.g., macroeconomics, policy changes, company fundamentals, and global events)? These factors, which frequently influence trading behaviors, are critical elements in the quest for maximizing investors' profits. Our work attempts to solve this problem through large language model based agents. We have developed a multi-agent AI system called StockAgent, driven by LLMs, designed to simulate investors' trading behaviors in response to the real stock market. The StockAgent allows users to evaluate the impact of different external factors on investor trading and to analyze trading behavior and profitability effects. Additionally, StockAgent avoids the test set leakage issue present in existing trading simulation systems based on AI Agents. Specifically, it prevents the model from leveraging prior knowledge it may have acquired related to the test data. We evaluate different LLMs under the framework of StockAgent in a stock trading environment that closely resembles real-world conditions. The experimental results demonstrate the impact of key external factors on stock market trading, including trading behavior and stock price fluctuation rules. This research explores the study of agents' free trading gaps in the context of no prior knowledge related to market data. The patterns identified through StockAgent simulations provide valuable insights for LLM-based investment advice and stock recommendation. The code is available at https://github.com/MingyuJ666/Stockagent.


Condorcet's Jury Theorem with Abstention

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The well-known Condorcet's Jury theorem posits that the majority rule selects the best alternative among two available options with probability one, as the population size increases to infinity. We study this result under an asymmetric two-candidate setup, where supporters of both candidates may have different participation costs. When the decision to abstain is fully rational i.e., when the vote pivotality is the probability of a tie, the only equilibrium outcome is a trivial equilibrium where all voters except those with zero voting cost, abstain. We propose and analyze a more practical, boundedly rational model where voters overestimate their pivotality, and show that under this model, non-trivial equilibria emerge where the winning probability of both candidates is bounded away from one. We show that when the pivotality estimate strongly depends on the margin of victory, victory is not assured to any candidate in any non-trivial equilibrium, regardless of population size and in contrast to Condorcet's assertion. Whereas, under a weak dependence on margin, Condorcet's Jury theorem is restored.


Learning in Multi-Objective Public Goods Games with Non-Linear Utilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Addressing the question of how to achieve optimal decision-making under risk and uncertainty is crucial for enhancing the capabilities of artificial agents that collaborate with or support humans. In this work, we address this question in the context of Public Goods Games. We study learning in a novel multi-objective version of the Public Goods Game where agents have different risk preferences, by means of multi-objective reinforcement learning. We introduce a parametric non-linear utility function to model risk preferences at the level of individual agents, over the collective and individual reward components of the game. We study the interplay between such preference modelling and environmental uncertainty on the incentive alignment level in the game. We demonstrate how different combinations of individual preferences and environmental uncertainties sustain the emergence of cooperative patterns in non-cooperative environments (i.e., where competitive strategies are dominant), while others sustain competitive patterns in cooperative environments (i.e., where cooperative strategies are dominant).