March 28, 2025 Abstract After decades of evolution, the financial system has increasingly deviated from an idealized framework based on precise theorems. With the development of data science and machine intelligence, researchers are trying to digitalize and automate market prediction. However, existing methodologies struggle to represent the diversity of individuals and are regardless of the domino effects of interactions on market dynamics, leading to the poor performance facing abnormal market conditions where non-quantitative information dominates the market. To alleviate these disadvantages requires the introduction of knowledge about how non-quantitative information, like news and policy, affects market dynamics. This study investigates overcoming these challenges through rehearsing potential market trends based on the financial large language model agents whose behaviors are aligned with their cognition and analyses in markets. We propose a hierarchical knowledge architecture for financial large language model agents, integrating fine-tuned language models and specialized generators optimized for trading scenarios. For financial market, we develop an advanced interactive behavioral simulation system that enables users to configure agents and automate market simulations. In this work, we take commodity futures as an example to research the effectiveness of our methodologies. Our real-world case simulation succeeds in rehearsing abnormal market dynamics under geopolitical events and reaches an average accuracy of 3.4% across various points in time after the event on predicting futures price. Under normal market conditions, with corresponding news, our simulator also exhibits lower mean square error than series deep learning models and large language models in predicting three-day futures price of specific commodities. All experimental results demonstrate our method effectively leverages diverse information to simulate behaviors and their impact on market dynamics through systematic interaction. 1 Main The proliferation of financial derivatives in commodity markets, including forward contracts, futures, and options, has been primarily driven by the necessity for price risk mitigation. While these instruments enable investors to profit through finance, they have transformed commodity trading markets into complex human systems [1, 2, 3]. Due to its zero-sum properties, commodity futures represent a relatively straightforward segment within the financial system.

Adaptive Traffic Signal Control (ATSC) has become a popular research topic in intelligent transportation systems. Regional Traffic Signal Control (RTSC) using the Multi-agent Deep Reinforcement Learning (MADRL) technique has become a promising approach for ATSC due to its ability to achieve the optimum trade-off between scalability and optimality. Most existing RTSC approaches partition a traffic network into several disjoint regions, followed by applying centralized reinforcement learning techniques to each region. However, the pursuit of cooperation among RTSC agents still remains an open issue and no communication strategy for RTSC agents has been investigated. In this paper, we propose communication strategies to capture the correlation of micro-traffic states among lanes and the correlation of macro-traffic states among intersections. We first justify the evolution equation of the RTSC process is Markovian via a system of store-and-forward queues. Next, based on the evolution equation, we propose two GAT-Aggregated (GA2) communication modules--GA2-Naive and GA2-Aug to extract both intra-region and inter-region correlations between macro and micro traffic states. While GA2-Naive only considers the movements at each intersection, GA2-Aug also considers the lane-changing behavior of vehicles. Two proposed communication modules are then aggregated into two existing novel RTSC frameworks--RegionLight and Regional-DRL. Experimental results demonstrate that both GA2-Naive and GA2-Aug effectively improve the performance of existing RTSC frameworks under both real and synthetic scenarios. Hyperparameter testing also reveals the robustness and potential of our communication modules in large-scale traffic networks.

One approach for improving sample efficiency in cooperative multi-agent learning is to decompose overall tasks into sub-tasks that can be assigned to individual agents. We study this problem in the context of reward machines: symbolic tasks that can be formally decomposed into sub-tasks. In order to handle settings without a priori knowledge of the environment, we introduce a framework that can learn the optimal decomposition from model-free interactions with the environment. Our method uses a task-conditioned architecture to simultaneously learn an optimal decomposition and the corresponding agents' policies for each sub-task. In doing so, we remove the need for a human to manually design the optimal decomposition while maintaining the sample-efficiency benefits of improved credit assignment. We provide experimental results in several deep reinforcement learning settings, demonstrating the efficacy of our approach. Our results indicate that our approach succeeds even in environments with codependent agent dynamics, enabling synchronous multi-agent learning not achievable in previous works.

Common sense suggests that when individuals explain why they believe something, we can arrive at more accurate conclusions than when they simply state what they believe. Yet, there is no known mechanism that provides incentives to elicit explanations for beliefs from agents. This likely stems from the fact that standard Bayesian models make assumptions (like conditional independence of signals) that preempt the need for explanations, in order to show efficient information aggregation. A natural justification for the value of explanations is that agents' beliefs tend to be drawn from overlapping sources of information, so agents' belief reports do not reveal all that needs to be known. Indeed, this work argues that rationales-explanations of an agent's private information-lead to more efficient aggregation by allowing agents to efficiently identify what information they share and what information is new. Building on this model of rationales, we present a novel 'deliberation mechanism' to elicit rationales from agents in which truthful reporting of beliefs and rationales is a perfect Bayesian equilibrium.

BeforeIT is an open-source software for building and simulating state-of-the-art macroeconomic agent-based models (macro ABMs) based on the recently introduced macro ABM developed in [1] and here referred to as the base model. Written in Julia, it combines extraordinary computational efficiency with user-friendliness and extensibility. We present the main structure of the software, demonstrate its ease of use with illustrative examples, and benchmark its performance. Our benchmarks show that the base model built with BeforeIT is orders of magnitude faster than a Matlab version, and significantly faster than Matlab-generated C code. BeforeIT is designed to facilitate reproducibility, extensibility, and experimentation. As the first open-source, industry-grade software to build macro ABMs of the type of the base model, BeforeIT can significantly foster collaboration and innovation in the field of agent-based macroeconomic modelling. The package, along with its documentation, is freely available at https://github.com/bancaditalia/BeforeIT.jl under the AGPL-3.0.

Autonomous artificial agents must be able to learn behaviors in complex environments without humans to design tasks and rewards. Designing these functions for each environment is not feasible, thus, motivating the development of intrinsic reward functions. In this paper, we propose using several cognitive elements that have been neglected for a long time to build an internal world model for an intrinsically motivated agent. Our agent performs satisfactory iterations with the environment, learning complex behaviors without needing previously designed reward functions. We used 18 Atari games to evaluate what cognitive skills emerge in games that require reactive and deliberative behaviors. Our results show superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art in many test cases with dense and sparse rewards.

In this paper we present a novel approach for multiagent decision making in dynamic environments based on Factor Graphs and the Max-Sum algorithm, considering asynchronous variable reassignments and distributed message-passing among agents. Motivated by the challenging domain of lane-free traffic where automated vehicles can communicate and coordinate as agents, we propose a more realistic communication framework for Factor Graph formulations that satisfies the above-mentioned restrictions, along with Conditional Max-Sum: an extension of Max-Sum with a revised message-passing process that is better suited for asynchronous settings. The overall application in lane-free traffic can be viewed as a hybrid system where the Factor Graph formulation undertakes the strategic decision making of vehicles, that of desired lateral alignment in a coordinated manner; and acts on top of a rule-based method we devise that provides a structured representation of the lane-free environment for the factors, while also handling the underlying control of vehicles regarding core operations and safety. Our experimental evaluation showcases the capabilities of the proposed framework in problems with intense coordination needs when compared to a domain-specific baseline without communication, and an increased adeptness of Conditional Max-Sum with respect to the standard algorithm.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) for simultaneous route optimization may destabilize traffic environments, with human drivers possibly experiencing longer travel times. We study this interaction by simulating human drivers and AVs. Our experiments with standard MARL algorithms reveal that, even in trivial cases, policies often fail to converge to an optimal solution or require long training periods. The problem is amplified by the fact that we cannot rely entirely on simulated training, as there are no accurate models of human routing behavior. At the same time, real-world training in cities risks destabilizing urban traffic systems, increasing externalities, such as $CO_2$ emissions, and introducing non-stationarity as human drivers adapt unpredictably to AV behaviors. Centralization can improve convergence in some cases, however, it raises privacy concerns for the travelers' destination data. In this position paper, we argue that future research must prioritize realistic benchmarks, cautious deployment strategies, and tools for monitoring and regulating AV routing behaviors to ensure sustainable and equitable urban mobility systems.

Large Language Model (LLM) Agents have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in task automation and intelligent decision-making, driving the widespread adoption of agent development frameworks such as LangChain and AutoGen. However, these frameworks predominantly serve developers with extensive technical expertise - a significant limitation considering that only 0.03 % of the global population possesses the necessary programming skills. This stark accessibility gap raises a fundamental question: Can we enable everyone, regardless of technical background, to build their own LLM agents using natural language alone? To address this challenge, we introduce AutoAgent-a Fully-Automated and highly Self-Developing framework that enables users to create and deploy LLM agents through Natural Language Alone. Operating as an autonomous Agent Operating System, AutoAgent comprises four key components: i) Agentic System Utilities, ii) LLM-powered Actionable Engine, iii) Self-Managing File System, and iv) Self-Play Agent Customization module. This lightweight yet powerful system enables efficient and dynamic creation and modification of tools, agents, and workflows without coding requirements or manual intervention. Beyond its code-free agent development capabilities, AutoAgent also serves as a versatile multi-agent system for General AI Assistants. Comprehensive evaluations on the GAIA benchmark demonstrate AutoAgent's effectiveness in generalist multi-agent tasks, surpassing existing state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, AutoAgent's Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG)-related capabilities have shown consistently superior performance compared to many alternative LLM-based solutions.

Aggregating preferences under incomplete or constrained feedback is a fundamental problem in social choice and related domains. While prior work has established strong impossibility results for pairwise comparisons, this paper extends the inquiry to improvement feedback, where voters express incremental adjustments rather than complete preferences. We provide a complete characterization of the positional scoring rules that can be computed given improvement feedback. Interestingly, while plurality is learnable under improvement feedback--unlike with pairwise feedback--strong impossibility results persist for many other positional scoring rules. Furthermore, we show that improvement feedback, unlike pairwise feedback, does not suffice for the computation of any Condorcet-consistent rule. We complement our theoretical findings with experimental results, providing further insights into the practical implications of improvement feedback for preference aggregation.