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Can SGD Select Good Fishermen? Local Convergence under Self-Selection Biases and Beyond

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We revisit the problem of estimating $k$ linear regressors with self-selection bias in $d$ dimensions with the maximum selection criterion, as introduced by Cherapanamjeri, Daskalakis, Ilyas, and Zampetakis [CDIZ23, STOC'23]. Our main result is a $\operatorname{poly}(d,k,1/\varepsilon) + {k}^{O(k)}$ time algorithm for this problem, which yields an improvement in the running time of the algorithms of [CDIZ23] and [GM24, arXiv]. We achieve this by providing the first local convergence algorithm for self-selection, thus resolving the main open question of [CDIZ23]. To obtain this algorithm, we reduce self-selection to a seemingly unrelated statistical problem called coarsening. Coarsening occurs when one does not observe the exact value of the sample but only some set (a subset of the sample space) that contains the exact value. Inference from coarse samples arises in various real-world applications due to rounding by humans and algorithms, limited precision of instruments, and lag in multi-agent systems. Our reduction to coarsening is intuitive and relies on the geometry of the self-selection problem, which enables us to bypass the limitations of previous analytic approaches. To demonstrate its applicability, we provide a local convergence algorithm for linear regression under another self-selection criterion, which is related to second-price auction data. Further, we give the first polynomial time local convergence algorithm for coarse Gaussian mean estimation given samples generated from a convex partition. Previously, only a sample-efficient algorithm was known due to Fotakis, Kalavasis, Kontonis, and Tzamos [FKKT21, COLT'21].


The Download: what Trump's tariffs mean for climate tech, and hacking AI agents

MIT Technology Review

US president Donald Trump's massive, sweeping tariffs sent global stock markets tumbling yesterday, setting the stage for a worldwide trade war and ratcheting up the dangers of a punishing recession. Experts fear that the US cleantech sector is especially vulnerable to a deep downturn, which would undermine progress on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Agents are the talk of the AI industry--they're capable of planning, reasoning, and executing complex tasks like scheduling meetings, ordering groceries, or even taking over your computer to change settings on your behalf. But the same sophisticated abilities that make agents helpful assistants could also make them powerful tools for conducting cyberattacks. They could readily be used to identify vulnerable targets, hijack their systems, and steal valuable data from unsuspecting victims.


Cyberattacks by AI agents are coming

MIT Technology Review

"I think ultimately we're going to live in a world where the majority of cyberattacks are carried out by agents," says Mark Stockley, a security expert at the cybersecurity company Malwarebytes. "It's really only a question of how quickly we get there." While we have a good sense of the kinds of threats AI agents could present to cybersecurity, what's less clear is how to detect them in the real world. The AI research organization Palisade Research has built a system called LLM Agent Honeypot in the hopes of doing exactly this. It has set up vulnerable servers that masquerade as sites for valuable government and military information to attract and try to catch AI agents attempting to hack in.


Hierarchical Policy-Gradient Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Agent Shepherding Control of Non-Cohesive Targets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

-- We propose a decentralized reinforcement learning solution for multi-agent shepherding of non-cohesive targets using policy-gradient methods. This model-free framework effectively solves the shepherding problem without prior dynamics knowledge. Experiments demonstrate our method's effectiveness and scalability with increased target numbers and limited sensing capabilities. The shepherding problem in robotics exemplifies the problem of harnessing complex systems for control [1], [2]. It generally involves a group of actively controlled agents, termed herders, strategically influencing a group of passive agents, referred to as targets.


Scaling Laws in Scientific Discovery with AI and Robot Scientists

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Scientific discovery is poised for rapid advancement through advanced robotics and artificial intelligence. Current scientific practices face substantial limitations as manual experimentation remains time-consuming and resource-intensive, while multidisciplinary research demands knowledge integration beyond individual researchers' expertise boundaries. Here, we envision an autonomous generalist scientist (AGS) concept combines agentic AI and embodied robotics to automate the entire research lifecycle. This system could dynamically interact with both physical and virtual environments while facilitating the integration of knowledge across diverse scientific disciplines. By deploying these technologies throughout every research stage -- spanning literature review, hypothesis generation, experimentation, and manuscript writing -- and incorporating internal reflection alongside external feedback, this system aims to significantly reduce the time and resources needed for scientific discovery. Building on the evolution from virtual AI scientists to versatile generalist AI-based robot scientists, AGS promises groundbreaking potential. As these autonomous systems become increasingly integrated into the research process, we hypothesize that scientific discovery might adhere to new scaling laws, potentially shaped by the number and capabilities of these autonomous systems, offering novel perspectives on how knowledge is generated and evolves. The adaptability of embodied robots to extreme environments, paired with the flywheel effect of accumulating scientific knowledge, holds the promise of continually pushing beyond both physical and intellectual frontiers.


Steering Large Agent Populations using Mean-Field Schrodinger Bridges with Gaussian Mixture Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Mean-Field Schrodinger Bridge (MFSB) problem is an optimization problem aiming to find the minimum effort control policy to drive a McKean-Vlassov stochastic differential equation from one probability measure to another. In the context of multiagent control, the objective is to control the configuration of a swarm of identical, interacting cooperative agents, as captured by the time-varying probability measure of their state. Available methods for solving this problem for distributions with continuous support rely either on spatial discretizations of the problem's domain or on approximating optimal solutions using neural networks trained through stochastic optimization schemes. For agents following Linear Time-Varying dynamics, and for Gaussian Mixture Model boundary distributions, we propose a highly efficient parameterization to approximate the solutions of the corresponding MFSB in closed form, without any learning steps. Our proposed approach consists of a mixture of elementary policies, each solving a Gaussian-to-Gaussian Covariance Steering problem from the components of the initial to the components of the terminal mixture. Leveraging the semidefinite formulation of the Covariance Steering problem, our proposed solver can handle probabilistic hard constraints on the system's state, while maintaining numerical tractability. We illustrate our approach on a variety of numerical examples.


An Investigation into the Causal Mechanism of Political Opinion Dynamics: A Model of Hierarchical Coarse-Graining with Community-Bounded Social Influence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increasing polarization in democratic societies is an emergent outcome of political opinion dynamics. Yet, the fundamental mechanisms behind the formation of political opinions, from individual beliefs to collective consensus, remain unknown. Understanding that a causal mechanism must account for both bottom-up and top-down influences, we conceptualize political opinion dynamics as hierarchical coarse-graining, where microscale opinions integrate into a macro-scale state variable. Using the CODA (Continuous Opinions Discrete Actions) model, we simulate Bayesian opinion updating, social identity-based information integration, and migration between social identity groups to represent higher-level connectivity. This results in coarse-graining across micro, meso, and macro levels. Our findings show that higher-level connectivity shapes information integration, yielding three regimes: independent (disconnected, local convergence), parallel (fast, global convergence), and iterative (slow, stepwise convergence). In the iterative regime, low connectivity fosters transient diversity, indicating an informed consensus. In all regimes, time-scale separation leads to downward causation, where agents converge on the aggregate majority choice, driving consensus. Critically, any degree of coherent higher-level information integration can overcome misalignment via global downward causation. The results highlight how emergent properties of the causal mechanism, such as downward causation, are essential for consensus and may inform more precise investigations into polarized political discourse.


Advancements in Multimodal Differential Evolution: A Comprehensive Review and Future Perspectives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-modal optimization involves identifying multiple global and local optima of a function, offering valuable insights into diverse optimal solutions within the search space. Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) excel at finding multiple solutions in a single run, providing a distinct advantage over classical optimization techniques that often require multiple restarts without guarantee of obtaining diverse solutions. Among these EAs, differential evolution (DE) stands out as a powerful and versatile optimizer for continuous parameter spaces. DE has shown significant success in multi-modal optimization by utilizing its population-based search to promote the formation of multiple stable subpopulations, each targeting different optima. Recent advancements in DE for multi-modal optimization have focused on niching methods, parameter adaptation, hybridization with other algorithms including machine learning, and applications across various domains. Given these developments, it is an opportune moment to present a critical review of the latest literature and identify key future research directions. This paper offers a comprehensive overview of recent DE advancements in multimodal optimization, including methods for handling multiple optima, hybridization with EAs, and machine learning, and highlights a range of real-world applications. Additionally, the paper outlines a set of compelling open problems and future research issues from multiple perspectives


Personality-Driven Decision-Making in LLM-Based Autonomous Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The embedding of Large Language Models (LLMs) into autonomous agents is a rapidly developing field which enables dynamic, configurable behaviours without the need for extensive domain-specific training. In our previous work, we introduced SANDMAN, a Deceptive Agent architecture leveraging the Five-Factor OCEAN personality model, demonstrating that personality induction significantly influences agent task planning. Building on these findings, this study presents a novel method for measuring and evaluating how induced personality traits affect task selection processes - specifically planning, scheduling, and decision-making - in LLM-based agents. Our results reveal distinct task-selection patterns aligned with induced OCEAN attributes, underscoring the feasibility of designing highly plausible Deceptive Agents for proactive cyber defense strategies.


Asynchronous Multi-Agent Systems with Petri nets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modeling the interaction between components is crucial for many applications and serves as a fundamental step in analyzing and verifying properties in multi-agent systems. In this paper, we propose a method based on 1-safe Petri nets to model Asynchronous Multi-Agent Systems (AMAS), starting from two semantics defined on AMAS represented as transition systems. Specifically, we focus on two types of synchronization: synchronization on transitions and synchronization on data. For both, we define an operator that composes 1-safe Petri nets and demonstrate the relationships between the composed Petri net and the global transition systems as defined in theliterature. Additionally, we analyze the relationships between the two semantics on Petri nets, proposing two constructions that enable switching between them. These transformations are particularly useful for system analysis, as they allow the selection of the most suitable model based on the property that needs to be verified.