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RiskNet: Interaction-Aware Risk Forecasting for Autonomous Driving in Long-Tail Scenarios

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensuring the safety of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in long - tail scenarios remains a critical challenge, particularly under high uncertainty and complex multi - agent interactions. To address this, we propose RiskNet, an interaction - aware risk forecasting frame work, which integrates deterministic risk modeling with probabilistic behavior prediction for comprehensive risk assessment . At its core, RiskNet employs a field - theoretic model that captures interactions among ego vehicle, surrounding agents, and infrastr ucture via interaction fields and force. This model supports multidimensional risk evaluation across diverse scenarios (highways, intersections, and roundabouts), and shows robustness under high - risk and long - tail settings . To capture the behavioral uncert ainty, we incorporate a graph neural network (GNN) - based trajectory prediction module, which learns multi - modal future motion distributions. Coupled with the deterministic risk field, it enables dynamic, probabilistic risk inference across time, enabling p roactive safety assessment under uncertainty. Evaluations on the highD, inD, and rounD datasets, spanning lane changes, turns, and complex merges, demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms traditional approaches (e.g., TTC, THW, RSS, NC Field) in terms of accuracy, responsiveness, and directional sensitivity, while maintaining strong generalization across scenarios . This framework supports real - time, scenario - adaptive risk forecasting and demonstrates strong generalization across uncertain drivi ng environments. It offers a unified foundation for safety - critical decisio n - making in long - tail scenarios .


AGI Is Coming... Right After AI Learns to Play Wordle

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates multimodal agents, in particular, OpenAI's Computer-User Agent (CUA), trained to control and complete tasks through a standard computer interface, similar to humans. We evaluated the agent's performance on the New York Times Wordle game to elicit model behaviors and identify shortcomings. Our findings revealed a significant discrepancy in the model's ability to recognize colors correctly depending on the context. The model had a $5.36\%$ success rate over several hundred runs across a week of Wordle. Despite the immense enthusiasm surrounding AI agents and their potential to usher in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), our findings reinforce the fact that even simple tasks present substantial challenges for today's frontier AI models. We conclude with a discussion of the potential underlying causes, implications for future development, and research directions to improve these AI systems.


Solving Multi-Agent Safe Optimal Control with Distributed Epigraph Form MARL

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tasks for multi-robot systems often require the robots to collaborate and complete a team goal while maintaining safety. This problem is usually formalized as a constrained Markov decision process (CMDP), which targets minimizing a global cost and bringing the mean of constraint violation below a user-defined threshold. Inspired by real-world robotic applications, we define safety as zero constraint violation. While many safe multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms have been proposed to solve CMDPs, these algorithms suffer from unstable training in this setting. To tackle this, we use the epigraph form for constrained optimization to improve training stability and prove that the centralized epigraph form problem can be solved in a distributed fashion by each agent. This results in a novel centralized training distributed execution MARL algorithm named Def-MARL. Simulation experiments on 8 different tasks across 2 different simulators show that Def-MARL achieves the best overall performance, satisfies safety constraints, and maintains stable training. Real-world hardware experiments on Crazyflie quadcopters demonstrate the ability of Def-MARL to safely coordinate agents to complete complex collaborative tasks compared to other methods.


MRTA-Sim: A Modular Simulator for Multi-Robot Allocation, Planning, and Control in Open-World Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper introduces MRTA-Sim, a Python/ROS2/Gazebo simulator for testing approaches to Multi-Robot Task Allocation (MRTA) problems on simulated robots in complex, indoor environments. Grid-based approaches to MRTA problems can be too restrictive for use in complex, dynamic environments such in warehouses, department stores, hospitals, etc. However, approaches that operate in free-space often operate at a layer of abstraction above the control and planning layers of a robot and make an assumption on approximate travel time between points of interest in the system. These abstractions can neglect the impact of the tight space and multi-agent interactions on the quality of the solution. Therefore, MRTA solutions should be tested with the navigation stacks of the robots in mind, taking into account robot planning, conflict avoidance between robots, and human interaction and avoidance. This tool connects the allocation output of MRTA solvers to individual robot planning using the NAV2 stack and local, centralized multi-robot deconfliction using Control Barrier Function-Quadrtic Programs (CBF-QPs), creating a platform closer to real-world operation for more comprehensive testing of these approaches. The simulation architecture is modular so that users can swap out methods at different levels of the stack. We show the use of our system with a Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT)-based approach to dynamic MRTA on a fleet of indoor delivery robots.


PolicyEvol-Agent: Evolving Policy via Environment Perception and Self-Awareness with Theory of Mind

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agents has exhibited significant intelligence in real-word simulations with Large language models (LLMs) due to the capabilities of social cognition and knowledge retrieval. However, existing research on agents equipped with effective cognition chains including reasoning, planning, decision-making and reflecting remains limited, especially in the dynamically interactive scenarios. In addition, unlike human, prompt-based responses face challenges in psychological state perception and empirical calibration during uncertain gaming process, which can inevitably lead to cognition bias. In light of above, we introduce PolicyEvol-Agent, a comprehensive LLM-empowered framework characterized by systematically acquiring intentions of others and adaptively optimizing irrational strategies for continual enhancement. Specifically, PolicyEvol-Agent first obtains reflective expertise patterns and then integrates a range of cognitive operations with Theory of Mind alongside internal and external perspectives. Simulation results, outperforming RL-based models and agent-based methods, demonstrate the superiority of PolicyEvol-Agent for final gaming victory. Moreover, the policy evolution mechanism reveals the effectiveness of dynamic guideline adjustments in both automatic and human evaluation.


Can Machine Learning Agents Deal with Hard Choices?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine Learning ML agents have been increasingly used in decision-making across a wide range of tasks and environments. These ML agents are typically designed to balance multiple objectives when making choices. Understanding how their decision-making processes align with or diverge from human reasoning is essential. Human agents often encounter hard choices, that is, situations where options are incommensurable; neither option is preferred, yet the agent is not indifferent between them. In such cases, human agents can identify hard choices and resolve them through deliberation. In contrast, current ML agents, due to fundamental limitations in Multi-Objective Optimisation or MOO methods, cannot identify hard choices, let alone resolve them. Neither Scalarised Optimisation nor Pareto Optimisation, the two principal MOO approaches, can capture incommensurability. This limitation generates three distinct alignment problems: the alienness of ML decision-making behaviour from a human perspective; the unreliability of preference-based alignment strategies for hard choices; and the blockage of alignment strategies pursuing multiple objectives. Evaluating two potential technical solutions, I recommend an ensemble solution that appears most promising for enabling ML agents to identify hard choices and mitigate alignment problems. However, no known technique allows ML agents to resolve hard choices through deliberation, as they cannot autonomously change their goals. This underscores the distinctiveness of human agency and urges ML researchers to reconceptualise machine autonomy and develop frameworks and methods that can better address this fundamental gap.


A biologically Inspired Trust Model for Open Multi-Agent Systems that is Resilient to Rapid Performance Fluctuations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trust management provides an alternative solution for securing open, dynamic, and distributed multi-agent systems, where conventional cryptographic methods prove to be impractical. However, existing trust models face challenges related to agent mobility, changing behaviors, and the cold start problem. To address these issues we introduced a biologically inspired trust model in which trustees assess their own capabilities and store trust data locally. This design improves mobility support, reduces communication overhead, resists disinformation, and preserves privacy. Despite these advantages, prior evaluations revealed limitations of our model in adapting to provider population changes and continuous performance fluctuations. This study proposes a novel algorithm, incorporating a self-classification mechanism for providers to detect performance drops potentially harmful for the service consumers. Simulation results demonstrate that the new algorithm outperforms its original version and FIRE, a well-known trust and reputation model, particularly in handling dynamic trustee behavior. While FIRE remains competitive under extreme environmental changes, the proposed algorithm demonstrates greater adaptability across various conditions. In contrast to existing trust modeling research, this study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of our model using widely recognized trust model criteria, assessing its resilience against common trust-related attacks while identifying strengths, weaknesses, and potential countermeasures. Finally, several key directions for future research are proposed.


Scalability Optimization in Cloud-Based AI Inference Services: Strategies for Real-Time Load Balancing and Automated Scaling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid expansion of AI inference services in the cloud necessitates a robust scalability solution to manage dynamic workloads and maintain high performance. This study proposes a comprehensive scalability optimization framework for cloud AI inference services, focusing on real-time load balancing and autoscaling strategies. The proposed model is a hybrid approach that combines reinforcement learning for adaptive load distribution and deep neural networks for accurate demand forecasting. This multi-layered approach enables the system to anticipate workload fluctuations and proactively adjust resources, ensuring maximum resource utilisation and minimising latency. Furthermore, the incorporation of a decentralised decision-making process within the model serves to enhance fault tolerance and reduce response time in scaling operations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model enhances load balancing efficiency by 35\ and reduces response delay by 28\, thereby exhibiting a substantial optimization effect in comparison with conventional scalability solutions.


LOKA Protocol: A Decentralized Framework for Trustworthy and Ethical AI Agent Ecosystems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of autonomous AI agents, capable of perceiving, reasoning, and acting independently, signals a profound shift in how digital ecosystems operate, govern, and evolve. As these agents proliferate beyond centralized infrastructures, they expose foundational gaps in identity, accountability, and ethical alignment. Three critical questions emerge: Identity: Who or what is the agent? Accountability: Can its actions be verified, audited, and trusted? Ethical Consensus: Can autonomous systems reliably align with human values and prevent harmful emergent behaviors? We present the novel LOKA Protocol (Layered Orchestration for Knowledgeful Agents), a unified, systems-level architecture for building ethically governed, interoperable AI agent ecosystems. LOKA introduces a proposed Universal Agent Identity Layer (UAIL) for decentralized, verifiable identity; intent-centric communication protocols for semantic coordination across diverse agents; and a Decentralized Ethical Consensus Protocol (DECP) that could enable agents to make context-aware decisions grounded in shared ethical baselines. Anchored in emerging standards such as Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs), Verifiable Credentials (VCs), and post-quantum cryptography, LOKA proposes a scalable, future-resilient blueprint for multi-agent AI governance. By embedding identity, trust, and ethics into the protocol layer itself, LOKA proposes the foundation for a new era of responsible, transparent, and autonomous AI ecosystems operating across digital and physical domains.


Why Ask One When You Can Ask $k$? Two-Stage Learning-to-Defer to the Top-$k$ Experts

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning-to-Defer (L2D) enables decision-making systems to improve reliability by selectively deferring uncertain predictions to more competent agents. However, most existing approaches focus exclusively on single-agent deferral, which is often inadequate in high-stakes scenarios that require collective expertise. We propose Top-$k$ Learning-to-Defer, a generalization of the classical two-stage L2D framework that allocates each query to the $k$ most confident agents instead of a single one. To further enhance flexibility and cost-efficiency, we introduce Top-$k(x)$ Learning-to-Defer, an adaptive extension that learns the optimal number of agents to consult for each query, based on input complexity, agent competency distributions, and consultation costs. For both settings, we derive a novel surrogate loss and prove that it is Bayes-consistent and $(\mathcal{R}, \mathcal{G})$-consistent, ensuring convergence to the Bayes-optimal allocation. Notably, we show that the well-established model cascades paradigm arises as a restricted instance of our Top-$k$ and Top-$k(x)$ formulations. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework on both classification and regression tasks.