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Retrieval and Argumentation Enhanced Multi-Agent LLMs for Judgmental Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Judgmental forecasting is the task of making predictions about future events based on human judgment. This task can be seen as a form of claim verification, where the claim corresponds to a future event and the task is to assess the plausibility of that event. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-agent framework for claim verification, whereby different agents may disagree on claim veracity and bring specific evidence for and against the claims, represented as quantitative bipolar argumentation frameworks (QBAFs). We then instantiate the framework for supporting claim verification, with a variety of agents realised with Large Language Models (LLMs): (1) ArgLLM agents, an existing approach for claim verification that generates and evaluates QBAFs; (2) RbAM agents, whereby LLM-empowered Relation-based Argument Mining (RbAM) from external sources is used to generate QBAFs; (3) RAG-ArgLLM agents, extending ArgLLM agents with a form of Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) of arguments from external sources. Finally, we conduct experiments with two standard judgmental forecasting datasets, with instances of our framework with two or three agents, empowered by six different base LLMs. We observe that combining evidence from agents can improve forecasting accuracy, especially in the case of three agents, while providing an explainable combination of evidence for claim verification.


A Tutorial on Cognitive Biases in Agentic AI-Driven 6G Autonomous Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The path to higher network autonomy in 6G lies beyond the mere optimization of key performance indicators (KPIs). While KPIs have enabled automation gains under TM Forum Levels 1--3, they remain numerical abstractions that act only as proxies for the real essence of communication networks: seamless connectivity, fairness, adaptability, and resilience. True autonomy requires perceiving and reasoning over the network environment as it is. Such progress can be achieved through \emph{agentic AI}, where large language model (LLM)-powered agents perceive multimodal telemetry, reason with memory, negotiate across domains, and act via APIs to achieve multi-objective goals. However, deploying such agents introduces the challenge of cognitive biases inherited from human design, which can distort reasoning, negotiation, tool use, and actuation. Between neuroscience and AI, this paper provides a tutorial on a selection of well-known biases, including their taxonomy, definition, mathematical formulation, emergence in telecom systems and the commonly impacted agentic components. The tutorial also presents various mitigation strategies tailored to each type of bias. The article finally provides two practical use-cases, which tackle the emergence, impact and mitigation gain of some famous biases in 6G inter-slice and cross-domain management. In particular, anchor randomization, temporal decay and inflection bonus techniques are introduced to specifically address anchoring, temporal and confirmation biases. This avoids that agents stick to the initial high resource allocation proposal or decisions that are recent and/or confirming a prior hypothesis. By grounding decisions in a richer and fairer set of past experiences, the quality and bravery of the agentic agreements in the second use-case, for instance, are leading to $\times 5$ lower latency and around $40\%$ higher energy saving.


How can we assess human-agent interactions? Case studies in software agent design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LLM-powered agents are both a promising new technology and a source of complexity, where choices about models, tools, and prompting can affect their usefulness. While numerous benchmarks measure agent accuracy across domains, they mostly assume full automation, failing to represent the collaborative nature of real-world use cases. In this paper, we make two major steps towards the rigorous assessment of human-agent interactions. First, we propose PULSE, a framework for more efficient human-centric evaluation of agent designs, which comprises collecting user feedback, training an ML model to predict user satisfaction, and computing results by combining human satisfaction ratings with model-generated pseudo-labels. Second, we deploy the framework on a large-scale web platform built around the open-source software agent OpenHands, collecting in-the-wild usage data across over 15k users. We conduct case studies around how three agent design decisions -- choice of LLM backbone, planning strategy, and memory mechanisms -- impact developer satisfaction rates, yielding practical insights for software agent design. We also show how our framework can lead to more robust conclusions about agent design, reducing confidence intervals by 40% compared to a standard A/B test. Finally, we find substantial discrepancies between in-the-wild results and benchmark performance (e.g., the anti-correlation between results comparing claude-sonnet-4 and gpt-5), underscoring the limitations of benchmark-driven evaluation. Our findings provide guidance for evaluations of LLM agents with humans and identify opportunities for better agent designs.


Deterministic Legal Agents: A Canonical Primitive API for Auditable Reasoning over Temporal Knowledge Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For autonomous legal agents to operate safely in high-stakes domains, they require a foundation of absolute determinism and auditability-guarantees that standard Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) frameworks cannot provide. When interacting with temporal knowledge graphs that model the complex evolution of legal norms, agents must navigate versioning, causality, and hierarchical structures with precision, a task for which black-box vector search is ill-suited. This paper introduces a new architectural pattern to solve this: a formal Primitive API designed as a secure execution layer for reasoning over such graphs. Instead of a monolithic query engine, our framework provides a library of canonical primitives-atomic, composable, and auditable primitives. This design empowers planner-guided agents to decompose complex legal questions into transparent execution plans, enabling critical tasks with full verifiability, including: (i) precise point-in-time version retrieval, (ii) robust causal lineage tracing, and (iii) context-aware hybrid search. Ultimately, this architecture transforms opaque retrieval into auditable reasoning, turning the agent's internal process from a black box into a verifiable log of deterministic primitives and providing a blueprint for building the next generation of trustworthy legal AI.


Generative World Models of Tasks: LLM-Driven Hierarchical Scaffolding for Embodied Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in agent development have focused on scaling model size and raw interaction data, mirroring successes in large language models. However, for complex, long-horizon multi-agent tasks such as robotic soccer, this end-to-end approach often fails due to intractable exploration spaces and sparse rewards. We propose that an effective world model for decision-making must model the world's physics and also its task semantics. A systematic review of 2024 research in low-resource multi-agent soccer reveals a clear trend towards integrating symbolic and hierarchical methods, such as Hierarchical Task Networks (HTNs) and Bayesian Strategy Networks (BSNs), with multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). These methods decompose complex goals into manageable subgoals, creating an intrinsic curriculum that shapes agent learning. We formalize this trend into a framework for Hierarchical Task Environments (HTEs), which are essential for bridging the gap between simple, reactive behaviors and sophisticated, strategic team play. Our framework incorporates the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as generative world models of tasks, capable of dynamically generating this scaffolding. We argue that HTEs provide a mechanism to guide exploration, generate meaningful learning signals, and train agents to internalize hierarchical structure, enabling the development of more capable and general-purpose agents with greater sample efficiency than purely end-to-end approaches.


The Physical Basis of Prediction: World Model Formation in Neural Organoids via an LLM-Generated Curriculum

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The capacity of an embodied agent to understand, predict, and interact with its environment is fundamentally contingent on an internal world model. This paper introduces a novel framework for investigating the formation and adaptation of such world models within a biological substrate: human neural organoids. We present a curriculum of three scalable, closed-loop virtual environments designed to train these biological agents and probe the underlying synaptic mechanisms of learning, such as long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD). We detail the design of three distinct task environments that demand progressively more sophisticated world models for successful decision-making: (1) a conditional avoidance task for learning static state-action contingencies, (2) a one-dimensional predator-prey scenario for goal-directed interaction, and (3) a replication of the classic Pong game for modeling dynamic, continuous-time systems. For each environment, we formalize the state and action spaces, the sensory encoding and motor decoding mechanisms, and the feedback protocols based on predictable (reward) and unpredictable (punishment) stimulation, which serve to drive model refinement. In a significant methodological advance, we propose a meta-learning approach where a Large Language Model automates the generative design and optimization of experimental protocols, thereby scaling the process of environment and curriculum design. Finally, we outline a multi-modal evaluation strategy that moves beyond task performance to directly measure the physical correlates of the learned world model by quantifying synaptic plasticity at electrophysiological, cellular, and molecular levels. This work bridges the gap between model-based reinforcement learning and computational neuroscience, offering a unique platform for studying embodiment, decision-making, and the physical basis of intelligence.


Co-Evolving Complexity: An Adversarial Framework for Automatic MARL Curricula

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advancement of general-purpose intelligent agents is intrinsically linked to the environments in which they are trained. While scaling models and datasets has yielded remarkable capabilities, scaling the complexity, diversity, and interactivity of environments remains a crucial bottleneck. Hand-crafted environments are finite and often contain implicit biases, limiting the potential for agents to develop truly generalizable and robust skills. In this work, we propose a paradigm for generating a boundless and adaptive curriculum of challenges by framing the environment generation process as an adversarial game. We introduce a system where a team of cooperative multi-agent defenders learns to survive against a procedurally generative attacker. The attacker agent learns to produce increasingly challenging configurations of enemy units, dynamically creating novel worlds tailored to exploit the defenders' current weaknesses. Concurrently, the defender team learns cooperative strategies to overcome these generated threats. This co-evolutionary dynamic creates a self-scaling environment where complexity arises organically from the adversarial interaction, providing an effectively infinite stream of novel and relevant training data. We demonstrate that with minimal training, this approach leads to the emergence of complex, intelligent behaviors, such as flanking and shielding by the attacker, and focus-fire and spreading by the defenders. Our findings suggest that adversarial co-evolution is a powerful mechanism for automatically scaling environmental complexity, driving agents towards greater robustness and strategic depth.


Strategic Communication and Language Bias in Multi-Agent LLM Coordination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly deployed in multi-agent scenarios where coordination is crucial but not always assured. Research shows that the way strategic scenarios are framed linguistically can affect cooperation. This paper explores whether allowing agents to communicate amplifies these language-driven effects. Leveraging FAIRGAME, we simulate one-shot and repeated games across different languages and models, both with and without communication. Our experiments, conducted with two advanced LLMs-GPT-4o and Llama 4 Maverick-reveal that communication significantly influences agent behavior, though its impact varies by language, personality, and game structure. These findings underscore the dual role of communication in fostering coordination and reinforcing biases.


H-NeiFi: Non-Invasive and Consensus-Efficient Multi-Agent Opinion Guidance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The openness of social media enables the free exchange of opinions, but it also presents challenges in guiding opinion evolution towards global consensus. Existing methods often directly modify user views or enforce cross-group connections. These intrusive interventions undermine user autonomy, provoke psychological resistance, and reduce the efficiency of global consensus. Additionally, due to the lack of a long-term perspective, promoting local consensus often exacerbates divisions at the macro level. To address these issues, we propose the hierarchical, non-intrusive opinion guidance framework, H-NeiFi. It first establishes a two-layer dynamic model based on social roles, considering the behavioral characteristics of both experts and non-experts. Additionally, we introduce a non-intrusive neighbor filtering method that adaptively controls user communication channels. Using multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), we optimize information propagation paths through a long-term reward function, avoiding direct interference with user interactions. Experiments show that H-NeiFi increases consensus speed by 22.0% to 30.7% and maintains global convergence even in the absence of experts. This approach enables natural and efficient consensus guidance by protecting user interaction autonomy, offering a new paradigm for social network governance.


The Dark Side of LLMs: Agent-based Attacks for Complete Computer Takeover

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid adoption of Large Language Model (LLM) agents and multi-agent systems enables remarkable capabilities in natural language processing and generation. However, these systems introduce security vulnerabilities that extend beyond traditional content generation to system-level compromises. This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of the LLMs security used as reasoning engines within autonomous agents, highlighting how they can be exploited as attack vectors capable of achieving computer takeovers. We focus on how different attack surfaces and trust boundaries can be leveraged to orchestrate such takeovers. We demonstrate that adversaries can effectively coerce popular LLMs into autonomously installing and executing malware on victim machines. Our evaluation of 18 state-of-the-art LLMs reveals an alarming scenario: 94.4% of models succumb to Direct Prompt Injection, and 83.3% are vulnerable to the more stealthy and evasive RAG Backdoor Attack. Notably, we tested trust boundaries within multi-agent systems, where LLM agents interact and influence each other, and we revealed that LLMs which successfully resist direct injection or RAG backdoor attacks will execute identical payloads when requested by peer agents. We found that 100.0% of tested LLMs can be compromised through Inter-Agent Trust Exploitation attacks, and that every model exhibits context-dependent security behaviors that create exploitable blind spots.