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Artificial Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Intelligent Buildings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Our hypothesis is that by equipping certain agents in a multi-agent system controlling an intelligent building with automated decision support, two important factors will be increased. The first is energy saving in the building. The second is customer value---how the people in the building experience the effects of the actions of the agents. We give evidence for the truth of this hypothesis through experimental findings related to tools for artificial decision making. A number of assumptions related to agent control, through monitoring and delegation of tasks to other kinds of agents, of rooms at a test site are relaxed. Each assumption controls at least one uncertainty that complicates considerably the procedures for selecting actions part of each such agent. We show that in realistic decision situations, room-controlling agents can make bounded rational decisions even under dynamic real-time constraints. This result can be, and has been, generalized to other domains with even harsher time constraints.


Verification of Agent-Based Artifact Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artifact systems are a novel paradigm for specifying and implementing business processes described in terms of interacting modules called artifacts. Artifacts consist of data and lifecycles, accounting respectively for the relational structure of the artifacts' states and their possible evolutions over time. In this paper we put forward artifact-centric multi-agent systems, a novel formalisation of artifact systems in the context of multi-agent systems operating on them. Differently from the usual process-based models of services, the semantics we give explicitly accounts for the data structures on which artifact systems are defined. We study the model checking problem for artifact-centric multi-agent systems against specifications written in a quantified version of temporal-epistemic logic expressing the knowledge of the agents in the exchange. We begin by noting that the problem is undecidable in general. We then identify two noteworthy restrictions, one syntactical and one semantical, that enable us to find bisimilar finite abstractions and therefore reduce the model checking problem to the instance on finite models. Under these assumptions we show that the model checking problem for these systems is EXPSPACE-complete. We then introduce artifact-centric programs, compact and declarative representations of the programs governing both the artifact system and the agents. We show that, while these in principle generate infinite-state systems, under natural conditions their verification problem can be solved on finite abstractions that can be effectively computed from the programs. Finally we exemplify the theoretical results of the paper through a mainstream procurement scenario from the artifact systems literature.


MANCaLog: A Logic for Multi-Attribute Network Cascades (Technical Report)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The modeling of cascade processes in multi-agent systems in the form of complex networks has in recent years become an important topic of study due to its many applications: the adoption of commercial products, spread of disease, the diffusion of an idea, etc. In this paper, we begin by identifying a desiderata of seven properties that a framework for modeling such processes should satisfy: the ability to represent attributes of both nodes and edges, an explicit representation of time, the ability to represent non-Markovian temporal relationships, representation of uncertain information, the ability to represent competing cascades, allowance of non-monotonic diffusion, and computational tractability. We then present the MANCaLog language, a formalism based on logic programming that satisfies all these desiderata, and focus on algorithms for finding minimal models (from which the outcome of cascades can be obtained) as well as how this formalism can be applied in real world scenarios. We are not aware of any other formalism in the literature that meets all of the above requirements.


Game Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce Game networks (G nets), a novel representation for multi-agent decision problems. Compared to other game-theoretic representations, such as strategic or extensive forms, G nets are more structured and more compact; more fundamentally, G nets constitute a computationally advantageous framework for strategic inference, as both probability and utility independencies are captured in the structure of the network and can be exploited in order to simplify the inference process. An important aspect of multi-agent reasoning is the identification of some or all of the strategic equilibria in a game; we present original convergence methods for strategic equilibrium which can take advantage of strategic separabilities in the G net structure in order to simplify the computations. Specifically, we describe a method which identifies a unique equilibrium as a function of the game payoffs, and one which identifies all equilibria.


Multi-agent learning using Fictitious Play and Extended Kalman Filter

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Decentralised optimisation tasks are important components of multi-agent systems. These tasks can be interpreted as n-player potential games: therefore game-theoretic learning algorithms can be used to solve decentralised optimisation tasks. Fictitious play is the canonical example of these algorithms. Nevertheless fictitious play implicitly assumes that players have stationary strategies. We present a novel variant of fictitious play where players predict their opponents' strategies using Extended Kalman filters and use their predictions to update their strategies. We show that in 2 by 2 games with at least one pure Nash equilibrium and in potential games where players have two available actions, the proposed algorithm converges to the pure Nash equilibrium. The performance of the proposed algorithm was empirically tested, in two strategic form games and an ad-hoc sensor network surveillance problem. The proposed algorithm performs better than the classic fictitious play algorithm in these games and therefore improves the performance of game-theoretical learning in decentralised optimisation.


Artificial Intelligence Framework for Simulating Clinical Decision-Making: A Markov Decision Process Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the modern healthcare system, rapidly expanding costs/complexity, the growing myriad of treatment options, and exploding information streams that often do not effectively reach the front lines hinder the ability to choose optimal treatment decisions over time. The goal in this paper is to develop a general purpose (non-disease-specific) computational/artificial intelligence (AI) framework to address these challenges. This serves two potential functions: 1) a simulation environment for exploring various healthcare policies, payment methodologies, etc., and 2) the basis for clinical artificial intelligence - an AI that can think like a doctor. This approach combines Markov decision processes and dynamic decision networks to learn from clinical data and develop complex plans via simulation of alternative sequential decision paths while capturing the sometimes conflicting, sometimes synergistic interactions of various components in the healthcare system. It can operate in partially observable environments (in the case of missing observations or data) by maintaining belief states about patient health status and functions as an online agent that plans and re-plans. This framework was evaluated using real patient data from an electronic health record. Such an AI framework easily outperforms the current treatment-as-usual (TAU) case-rate/fee-for-service models of healthcare (Cost per Unit Change: $189 vs. $497) while obtaining a 30-35% increase in patient outcomes. Tweaking certain model parameters further enhances this advantage, obtaining roughly 50% more improvement for roughly half the costs. Given careful design and problem formulation, an AI simulation framework can approximate optimal decisions even in complex and uncertain environments. Future work is described that outlines potential lines of research and integration of machine learning algorithms for personalized medicine.


Generating Motion Patterns Using Evolutionary Computation in Digital Soccer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dribbling an opponent player in digital soccer environment is an important practical problem in motion planning. It has special complexities which can be generalized to most important problems in other similar Multi Agent Systems. In this paper, we propose a hybrid computational geometry and evolutionary computation approach for generating motion trajectories to avoid a mobile obstacle. In this case an opponent agent is not only an obstacle but also one who tries to harden dribbling procedure. One characteristic of this approach is reducing process cost of online stage by transferring it to offline stage which causes increment in agents' performance. This approach breaks the problem into two offline and online stages. During offline stage the goal is to find desired trajectory using evolutionary computation and saving it as a trajectory plan. A trajectory plan consists of nodes which approximate information of each trajectory plan. In online stage, a linear interpolation along with Delaunay triangulation in xy-plan is applied to trajectory plan to retrieve desired action.


Applying Strategic Multiagent Planning to Real-World Travel Sharing Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Travel sharing, i.e., the problem of finding parts of routes which can be shared by several travellers with different points of departure and destinations, is a complex multiagent problem that requires taking into account individual agents' preferences to come up with mutually acceptable joint plans. In this paper, we apply state-of-the-art planning techniques to real-world public transportation data to evaluate the feasibility of multiagent planning techniques in this domain. The potential application value of improving travel sharing technology has great application value due to its ability to reduce the environmental impact of travelling while providing benefits to travellers at the same time. We propose a three-phase algorithm that utilises performant single-agent planners to find individual plans in a simplified domain first, then merges them using a best-response planner which ensures resulting solutions are individually rational, and then maps the resulting plan onto the full temporal planning domain to schedule actual journeys. The evaluation of our algorithm on real-world, multi-modal public transportation data for the United Kingdom shows linear scalability both in the scenario size and in the number of agents, where trade-offs have to be made between total cost improvement, the percentage of feasible timetables identified for journeys, and the prolongation of these journeys. Our system constitutes the first implementation of strategic multiagent planning algorithms in large-scale domains and provides insights into the engineering process of translating general domain-independent multiagent planning algorithms to real-world applications.


The Multi-Agent Programming Contest

AI Magazine

The international Multi-Agent Programming Contest (MAPC), is a community-serving effort to facilitate advances in programming multiagent systems (MAS) by (1) developing benchmark problems, (2) enabling head-to-head comparison of MAS's and (3) supporting educational efforts in the design and implementation of MAS's.


The Multi-Agent Programming Contest

AI Magazine

It has since been organized by the AI group at Clausthal University of Technology. MAPC is not collocated with any other event. Using our MASSim platform, the participants are running their own systems locally and only interact with the tournament server over the Internet. A steering committee oversees the whole process and determines the organization committee. The scenario changes every other year: the current one is "Agents on Mars."