The paper addresses the classical network tomography problem of inferring local traffic given origin-destination observations. Focusing on large complex public transportation systems, we build a scalable model that exploits input-output information toestimate the unobserved link/station loads and the users' path preferences. Based on the reconstruction of the users' travel time distribution, the model is flexible enough to capture possible different path-choice strategies and correlations between users travelling on similar paths at similar times. The corresponding likelihood function is intractable for medium or large-scale networks and we propose twodistinct strategies, namely the exact maximum-likelihood inference of an approximate but tractable model and the variational inference of the original intractable model. As an application of our approach, we consider the emblematic case of the London underground network, where a tap-in/tap-out system tracks the starting/exit time and location of all journeys in a day. A set of synthetic simulations and real data provided by Transport For London are used to validate and test the model on the predictions of observable and unobservable quantities.

Learning cooperative policies for multi-agent systems is often challenged by partial observability and a lack of coordination. In some settings, the structure of a problem allows a distributed solution with limited communication. Here, we consider a scenario where no communication is available, and instead we learn local policies for all agents that collectively mimic the solution to a centralized multi-agent static optimization problem. Our main contribution is an information theoretic framework based on rate distortion theory which facilitates analysis of how well the resulting fully decentralized policies are able to reconstruct the optimal solution. Moreover, this framework provides a natural extension that addresses which nodes an agent should communicate with to improve the performance of its individual policy.

Multi-agent predictive modeling is an essential step for understanding physical, social and team-play systems. Recently, Interaction Networks (INs) were proposed for the task of modeling multi-agent physical systems. One of the drawbacks of INs is scaling with the number of interactions in the system (typically quadratic or higher order in the number of agents). In this paper we introduce VAIN, a novel attentional architecture for multi-agent predictive modeling that scales linearly with the number of agents. We show that VAIN is effective for multi-agent predictive modeling. Our method is evaluated on tasks from challenging multi-agent prediction domains: chess and soccer, and outperforms competing multi-agent approaches.

Learning to communicate through interaction, rather than relying on explicit supervision, is often considered a prerequisite for developing a general AI. We study a setting where two agents engage in playing a referential game and, from scratch, develop a communication protocol necessary to succeed in this game. Unlike previous work, we require that messages they exchange, both at train and test time, are in the form of a language (i.e. sequences of discrete symbols). We compare a reinforcement learning approach and one using a differentiable relaxation (straight-through Gumbel-softmax estimator) and observe that the latter is much faster to converge and it results in more effective protocols. Interestingly, we also observe that the protocol we induce by optimizing the communication success exhibits a degree of compositionality and variability (i.e. the same information can be phrased in different ways), both properties characteristic of natural languages. As the ultimate goal is to ensure that communication is accomplished in natural language, we also perform experiments where we inject prior information about natural language into our model and study properties of the resulting protocol.

In this paper we consider the problem of minimizing a submodular function from training data. Submodular functions can be efficiently minimized and are consequently heavilyapplied in machine learning. There are many cases, however, in which we do not know the function we aim to optimize, but rather have access to training data that is used to learn it. In this paper we consider the question of whether submodular functions can be minimized when given access to its training data. We show that even learnable submodular functions cannot be minimized within any nontrivial approximation when given access to polynomially-many samples. Specifically,we show that there is a class of submodular functions with range in [0, 1] such that, despite being PAC-learnable and minimizable in polynomial-time, no algorithm can obtain an approximation strictly better than 1/2 o(1) using polynomially-many samples drawn from any distribution. Furthermore, we show that this bound is tight via a trivial algorithm that obtains an approximation of 1/2.

In imperfect-information games, the optimal strategy in a subgame may depend on the strategy in other, unreached subgames. Thus a subgame cannot be solved in isolation and must instead consider the strategy for the entire game as a whole, unlike perfect-information games. Nevertheless, it is possible to first approximate a solution for the whole game and then improve it in individual subgames. This is referred to as subgame solving. We introduce subgame-solving techniques that outperform prior methods both in theory and practice. We also show how to adapt them, and past subgame-solving techniques, to respond to opponent actions that are outside the original action abstraction; this significantly outperforms the prior state-of-the-art approach, action translation. Finally, we show that subgame solving can be repeated as the game progresses down the game tree, leading to far lower exploitability. These techniques were a key component of Libratus, the first AI to defeat top humans in heads-up no-limit Texas hold'em poker.

In reinforcement learning, agents learn by performing actions and observing their outcomes. Sometimes, it is desirable for a human operator to interrupt an agent in order to prevent dangerous situations from happening. Yet, as part of their learning process, agents may link these interruptions, that impact their reward, to specific states and deliberately avoid them. The situation is particularly challenging in a multi-agent context because agents might not only learn from their own past interruptions, but also from those of other agents. Orseau and Armstrong defined safe interruptibility for one learner, but their work does not naturally extend to multi-agent systems. This paper introduces dynamic safe interruptibility, an alternative definition more suited to decentralized learning problems, and studies this notion in two learning frameworks: joint action learners and independent learners. We give realistic sufficient conditions on the learning algorithm to enable dynamic safe interruptibility in the case of joint action learners, yet show that these conditions are not sufficient for independent learners. We show however that if agents can detect interruptions, it is possible to prune the observations to ensure dynamic safe interruptibility even for independent learners.

Characterizing human values is a topic deeply interwoven with the sciences, humanities, art, and many other human endeavors. In recent years, a number of thinkers have argued that accelerating trends in computer science, cognitive science, and related disciplines foreshadow the creation of intelligent machines which meet and ultimately surpass the cognitive abilities of human beings, thereby entangling an understanding of human values with future technological development. Contemporary research accomplishments suggest sophisticated AI systems becoming widespread and responsible for managing many aspects of the modern world, from preemptively planning users' travel schedules and logistics, to fully autonomous vehicles, to domestic robots assisting in daily living. The extrapolation of these trends has been most forcefully described in the context of a hypothetical "intelligence explosion," in which the capabilities of an intelligent software agent would rapidly increase due to the presence of feedback loops unavailable to biological organisms. The possibility of superintelligent agents, or simply the widespread deployment of sophisticated, autonomous AI systems, highlights an important theoretical problem: the need to separate the cognitive and rational capacities of an agent from the fundamental goal structure, or value system, which constrains and guides the agent's actions. The "value alignment problem" is to specify a goal structure for autonomous agents compatible with human values. In this brief article, we suggest that recent ideas from affective neuroscience and related disciplines aimed at characterizing neurological and behavioral universals in the mammalian kingdom provide important conceptual foundations relevant to describing human values. We argue that the notion of "mammalian value systems" points to a potential avenue for fundamental research in AI safety and AI ethics.

There Is No Agency Without Attention

This paper considers inference over distributed linear Gaussian models using factor graphs and Gaussian belief propagation (BP). The distributed inference algorithm involves only local computation of the information matrix and of the mean vector, and message passing between neighbors. Under broad conditions, it is shown that the message information matrix converges to a unique positive definite limit matrix for arbitrary positive semidefinite initialization, and it approaches an arbitrarily small neighborhood of this limit matrix at a doubly exponential rate. A necessary and sufficient convergence condition for the belief mean vector to converge to the optimal centralized estimator is provided under the assumption that the message information matrix is initialized as a positive semidefinite matrix. Further, it is shown that Gaussian BP always converges when the underlying factor graph is given by the union of a forest and a single loop. The proposed convergence condition in the setup of distributed linear Gaussian models is shown to be strictly weaker than other existing convergence conditions and requirements, including the Gaussian Markov random field based walk-summability condition, and applicable to a large class of scenarios.