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An Empirical Study on the Practical Impact of Prior Beliefs over Policy Types

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many multiagent applications require an agent to learn quickly how to interact with previously unknown other agents. To address this problem, researchers have studied learning algorithms which compute posterior beliefs over a hypothesised set of policies, based on the observed actions of the other agents. The posterior belief is complemented by the prior belief, which specifies the subjective likelihood of policies before any actions are observed. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive empirical study on the practical impact of prior beliefs over policies in repeated interactions. We show that prior beliefs can have a significant impact on the long-term performance of such methods, and that the magnitude of the impact depends on the depth of the planning horizon. Moreover, our results demonstrate that automatic methods can be used to compute prior beliefs with consistent performance effects. This indicates that prior beliefs could be eliminated as a manual parameter and instead be computed automatically.


Informative Path Planning with Local Penalization for Decentralized and Asynchronous Swarm Robotic Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decentralized swarm robotic solutions to searching for targets that emit a spatially varying signal promise task parallelism, time efficiency, and fault tolerance. It is, however, challenging for swarm algorithms to offer scalability and efficiency, while preserving mathematical insights into the exhibited behavior. A new decentralized search method (called Bayes-Swarm), founded on batch Bayesian Optimization (BO) principles, is presented here to address these challenges. Unlike swarm heuristics approaches, Bayes-Swarm decouples the knowledge generation and task planning process, thus preserving insights into the emergent behavior. Key contributions lie in: 1) modeling knowledge extraction over trajectories, unlike in BO; 2) time-adaptively balancing exploration/exploitation and using an efficient local penalization approach to account for potential interactions among different robots' planned samples; and 3) presenting an asynchronous implementation of the algorithm. This algorithm is tested on case studies with bimodal and highly multimodal signal distributions. Up to 76 times better efficiency is demonstrated compared to an exhaustive search baseline. The benefits of exploitation/exploration balancing, asynchronous planning, and local penalization, and scalability with swarm size, are also demonstrated.


Probabilistic Planning with Reduced Models

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Reduced models are simplified versions of a given domain, designed to accelerate the planning process. Interest in reduced models has grown since the surprising success of determinization in the first international probabilistic planning competition, leading to the development of several enhanced determinization techniques. To address the drawbacks of previous determinization methods, we introduce a family of reduced models in which probabilistic outcomes are classified as one of two types: primary and exceptional. In each model that belongs to this family of reductions, primary outcomes can occur an unbounded number of times per trajectory, while exceptions can occur at most a finite number of times, specified by a parameter. Distinct reduced models are characterized by two parameters: the maximum number of primary outcomes per action, and the maximum number of occurrences of exceptions per trajectory. This family of reductions generalizes the well-known most-likely-outcome determinization approach, which includes one primary outcome per action and zero exceptional outcomes per plan. We present a framework to determine the benefits of planning with reduced models, and develop a continual planning approach that handles situations where the number of exceptions exceeds the specified bound during plan execution. Using this framework, we compare the performance of various reduced models and consider the challenge of generating good ones automatically. We show that each one of the dimensions---allowing more than one primary outcome or planning for some limited number of exceptions---could improve performance relative to standard determinization. The results place previous work on determinization in a broader context and lay the foundation for a systematic exploration of the space of model reductions.


Concept Combination and the Origins of Complex Cognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

At the core of our uniquely human cognitive abilities is the capacity to see things from different perspectives, or to place them in a new context. We propose that this was made possible by two cognitive transitions. First, the large brain of Homo erectus facilitated the onset of recursive recall: the ability to string thoughts together into a stream of potentially abstract or imaginative thought. This hypothesis is supported by a set of computational models where an artificial society of agents evolved to generate more diverse and valuable cultural outputs under conditions of recursive recall. We propose that the capacity to see things in context arose much later, following the appearance of anatomically modern humans. This second transition was brought on by the onset of contextual focus: the capacity to shift between a minimally contextual analytic mode of thought, and a highly contextual associative mode of thought, conducive to combining concepts in new ways and ‗breaking out of a rut'. When contextual focus is implemented in an art-generating computer program, the resulting artworks are seen as more creative and appealing. We summarize how both transitions can be modeled using a theory of concepts which highlights the manner in which different contexts can lead to modern humans attributing very different meanings to the interpretation of one concept.


Policy-Gradient Algorithms Have No Guarantees of Convergence in Continuous Action and State Multi-Agent Settings

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We show by counterexample that policy-gradient algorithms have no guarantees of even local convergence to Nash equilibria in continuous action and state space multi-agent settings. To do so, we analyze gradient-play in $N$-player general-sum linear quadratic games. In such games the state and action spaces are continuous and the unique global Nash equilibrium can be found be solving coupled Ricatti equations. Further, gradient-play in LQ games is equivalent to multi-agent policy gradient. We first prove that the only critical point of the gradient dynamics in these games is the unique global Nash equilibrium. We then give sufficient conditions under which policy gradient will avoid the Nash equilibrium, and generate a large number of general-sum linear quadratic games that satisfy these conditions. The existence of such games indicates that one of the most popular approaches to solving reinforcement learning problems in the classic reinforcement learning setting has no guarantee of convergence in multi-agent settings. Further, the ease with which we can generate these counterexamples suggests that such situations are not mere edge cases and are in fact quite common.


Diverse Agents for Ad-Hoc Cooperation in Hanabi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In complex scenarios where a model of other actors is necessary to predict and interpret their actions, it is often desirable that the model works well with a wide variety of previously unknown actors. Hanabi is a card game that brings the problem of modeling other players to the forefront, but there is no agreement on how to best generate a pool of agents to use as partners in ad-hoc cooperation evaluation. This paper proposes Quality Diversity algorithms as a promising class of algorithms to generate populations for this purpose and shows an initial implementation of an agent generator based on this idea. We also discuss what metrics can be used to compare such generators, and how the proposed generator could be leveraged to help build adaptive agents for the game.


On Conforming and Conflicting Values

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Values are things that are important to us. Actions activate values - they either go against our values or they promote our values. Values themselves can either be conforming or conflicting depending on the action that is taken. In this short paper, we argue that values may be classified as one of two types - conflicting and inherently conflicting values. They are distinguished by the fact that the latter in some sense can be thought of as being independent of actions. This allows us to do two things: i) check whether a set of values is consistent and ii) check whether it is in conflict with other sets of values.


Individual Regret in Cooperative Nonstochastic Multi-Armed Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study agents communicating over an underlying network by exchanging messages, in order to optimize their individual regret in a common nonstochastic multi-armed bandit problem. We derive regret minimization algorithms that guarantee for each agent $v$ an individual expected regret of \[ \widetilde{O}\left(\sqrt{\left(1+\frac{K}{\left|\mathcal{N}\left(v\right)\right|}\right)T}\right), \] where $T$ is the number of time steps, $K$ is the number of actions and $\mathcal{N}\left(v\right)$ is the set of neighbors of agent $v$ in the communication graph. We present algorithms both for the case that the communication graph is known to all the agents, and for the case that the graph is unknown. When the graph is unknown, each agent knows only the set of its neighbors and an upper bound on the total number of agents. The individual regret between the models differs only by a logarithmic factor. Our work resolves an open problem from [Cesa-Bianchi et al., 2019b].


A Communication-Efficient Multi-Agent Actor-Critic Algorithm for Distributed Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recently, there has been increasing interest in developing distributed machine learning algorithms. Notable examples include distributed linear regression [1], multi-arm bandit [2], reinforcement learning (RL) [3], and deep learning [4]. Such algorithms have promising applications in large-scale networks, such as social platforms, online economic networks, cyber-physical systems, and Internet of Things, primarily because in such a complex network, it is impossible to collect all the information at the same point and each component of the network may not be willing to share its private information due to privacy issues. Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) problems have recently received increasing attention. In general, MARL problems are investigated in settings that are either collaborative, competitive, or a mixture of the two. For collaborative MARL, the most rudimentary framework is the canonical multi-agent Markov decision process [5, 6], where the agents share a common reward function that is determined by the joint actions of all agents. Another notable framework for collaborative MARL is the team Markov game model, also with a shared reward function among agents [7, 8]. These two frameworks were then extended to the setting where agents are allowed to have heterogeneous reward functions[3,9-12], collaborating with the goal of maximizing the long-term return corresponding to the team averaged reward.


Experience Management in Multi-player Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Experience Management studies AI systems that automatically adapt interactive experiences such as games to tailor to specific players and to fulfill design goals. Although it has been explored for several decades, existing work in experience management has mostly focused on single-player experiences. This paper is a first attempt at identifying the main challenges to expand EM to multi-player/multi-user games or experiences. We also make connections to related areas where solutions for similar problems have been proposed (especially group recommender systems) and discusses the potential impact and applications of multi-player EM.