Evidence in probabilistic reasoning may be ‘hard’ or ‘soft’, that is, it may be of yes/no form, or it may involve a strength of belief, in the unit interval [0, 1]. Reasoning with soft, [0, 1]-valued evidence is important in many situations but may lead to different, confusing interpretations. This paper intends to bring more mathematical and conceptual clarity to the field by shifting the existing focus from specification of soft evidence to accomodation of soft evidence. There are two main approaches, known as Jeffrey’s rule and Pearl’s method; they give different outcomes on soft evidence. This paper argues that they can be understood as correction and as improvement. It describes these two approaches as different ways of updating with soft evidence, highlighting their differences, similarities and applications. This account is based on a novel channel-based approach to Bayesian probability. Proper understanding of these two update mechanisms is highly relevant for inference, decision tools and probabilistic programming languages.

These are exciting times for computational sciences with the digital revolution permeating a variety of areas and radically transforming business, science, and our daily lives. The Internet and the World Wide Web, GPS, satellite communications, remote sensing, and smartphones are dramatically accelerating the pace of discovery, engendering globally connected networks of people and devices. The rise of practically relevant artificial intelligence (AI) is also playing an increasing part in this revolution, fostering e-commerce, social networks, personalized medicine, IBM Watson and AlphaGo, self-driving cars, and other groundbreaking transformations. Unfortunately, humanity is also facing tremendous challenges. Nearly a billion people still live below the international poverty line and human activities and climate change are threatening our planet and the livelihood of current and future generations. Moreover, the impact of computing and information technology has been uneven, mainly benefiting profitable sectors, with fewer societal and environmental benefits, further exacerbating inequalities and the destruction of our planet. Our vision is that computer scientists can and should play a key role in helping address societal and environmental challenges in pursuit of a sustainable future, while also advancing computer science as a discipline. For over a decade, we have been deeply engaged in computational research to address societal and environmental challenges, while nurturing the new field of Computational Sustainability.

--Due to the drastic increase of mobile traffic, wireless caching is proposed to serve repeated requests for content download. T o determine the caching scheme for decentralized caching networks, the content preference learning problem based on mobility prediction is studied. We first formulate preference prediction as a decentralized regularized multi-task learning (DRMTL) problem without considering the mobility of mobile terminals (MTs). The problem is solved by a hybrid Jacobian and Gauss-Seidel proximal multi-block alternating direction method (ADMM) based algorithm, which is proven to conditionally converge to the optimal solution with a rate O (1 / k) . Then we use the tool of Markov renewal process to predict the moving path and sojourn time for MTs, and integrate the mobility pattern with the DRMTL model by reweighting the training samples and introducing a transfer penalty in the objective. We solve the problem and prove that the developed algorithm has the same convergence property but with different conditions. Through simulation we show the convergence analysis on proposed algorithms. Our real trace driven experiments illustrate that the mobility-aware DRMTL model can provide a more accurate prediction on geography preference than DRMTL model. Besides, the hit ratio achieved by most popular proactive caching (MPC) policy with preference predicted by mobility-aware DRMTL outperforms the MPC with preference from DRMTL and random caching (RC) schemes. As a promising technology for the fifth-generation (5G) wireless networks and beyond, proactive caching can alleviate the heavy traffic burden on backhaul links and reduce service delay, through proactively storing popular contents at base stations (BSs) and mobile terminals (MTs) [1]-[3]. With the limitation of storage memory, determining where and what to cache in content centric wireless networks becomes one of the main challenges in the design of proactive caching schemes. Among the various factors affecting the wireless caching design, involving the mobility of MTs and learning content preference are two critical challenges, which have attracted more and more research interest recently. A. background Current investigation on mobility aware wireless caching mainly includes two aspects: studying the impact of MT mobility on caching schemes [4]-[7], and optimizing the wireless caching schemes based on the mobility information of MTs Y u Y e, Ming Xiao and Mikael Skoglund are with the School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden (email: yu9@kth.se,

In several reinforcement learning (RL) scenarios such as security settings, there may be adversaries trying to interfere with the reward generating process for their own benefit. We introduce Threatened Markov Decision Processes (TMDPs) as a framework to support an agent against potential opponents in a RL context. We also propose a level-k thinking scheme resulting in a novel learning approach to deal with TMDPs. After introducing our framework and deriving theoretical results, relevant empirical evidence is given via extensive experiments, showing the benefits of accounting for adversaries in RL while the agent learns

Numerous learning methods for fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), such as the Hebbian-based and the population-based learning methods, have been developed for modeling and simulating dynamic systems. However, these methods are faced with several obvious limitations. Most of these models are extremely time consuming when learning the large-scale FCMs with hundreds of nodes. Furthermore, the FCMs learned by those algorithms lack robustness when the experimental data contain noise. In addition, reasonable distribution of the weights is rarely considered in these algorithms, which could result in the reduction of the performance of the resulting FCM. In this article, a straightforward, rapid, and robust learning method is proposed to learn FCMs from noisy data, especially, to learn large-scale FCMs. The crux of the proposed algorithm is to equivalently transform the learning problem of FCMs to a classic-constrained convex optimization problem in which the least-squares term ensures the robustness of the well-learned FCM and the maximum entropy term regularizes the distribution of the weights of the well-learned FCM. A series of experiments covering two frequently used activation functions (the sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent functions) are performed on both synthetic datasets with noise and real-world datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed method is rapid and robust against data containing noise and that the well-learned weights have better distribution. In addition, the FCMs learned by the proposed method also exhibit superior performance in comparison with the existing methods. Index Terms-Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), maximum entropy, noisy data, rapid and robust learning.

It is the reality that artificial intelligence (AI) has changed the way people do business and their day-to-day lives. Virtual assistants, computer-aided diagnosis and also clinical decision support are just a couple of examples of how artificial intelligence in healthcare has modified the sector. It is not only about one sector or industry but related to every area. Artificial intelligence is doing miracles in every business. Speaking of artificial intelligence in the healthcare sector, you can easily find a great change and alteration in ways the work used to happen and taking place today. You know AI in healthcare has the potential and power to enhance patient care and staff efficiency by assisting with medical image analysis and also diagnosis.

The notion of cyber-physical systems (CPS) describes the co mbination of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and software (the "cyber" part) with physical compone nts. A CPS can emerge from embedded systems by internetworking them. The first big research program focusi ng on CPS has been started by the US National Science Foundation in 2006, where the term CPS is defined in as such tha t it "refers to the tight conjoining of and coordination between computational and physical resources," stating "[ w]e envision that the cyber-physical systems of tomorrow will far exceed those of today in terms of adaptability, auto nomy, efficiency, functionality, reliability, safety, and usability" [1]. While the notion of CPS by the U.S. National Science Foundati on, as outlined above, includes ICT, it does not explicitly name Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a necessary component to raise an embedded system to the status of a CPS. Y et, the availability of sensory data together with a co mmunications system and the ability to exert actions upon the physical world that have been planned for the whole compo und of embedded systems components readily suggests that issues of planning, the increase of reflectivity, effici ency, and lowering resource usage is achieved by increasing the "intelligence" of the overall system. As such, research ers in the domain of AI have found numerous application domains. However, the two worlds of CPS and AI usually operate on diffe rent terms: CPS require operation within well-defined boundaries, i.e., as far as possible deterministic behavio r within well-known, strictly enforced margins of error. In contrast, many AI techniques--Artificial Neural Networks (A NNs) foremost--are firmly rooted in the domain of statistics, which is probably very well seen in the ANN train ing process.

A new challenge for knowledge graph reasoning started in 2018. Deep learning has promoted the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to a wide variety of social problems. Accordingly, being able to explain the reason for an AI decision is b ecoming important to ensure the secure and safe use of AI techniques. Thus, we, the Special Interest Group on Semantic Web and Ontology of the Japanese Society for AI, organized a challenge calling for techniques that reason and/or estimate which character s are criminals while providing a reasonable explanation based on an open knowledge graph of a well - known Sherlock Holmes mystery story . This paper presents a summary report of the first challenge held in 2018, including the knowledge graph construction, t he techniques proposed for reasoning and/or estimation, the evaluation metrics, and the results. The first prize went to an approach that formalized the problem as a constraint satisfaction problem and solved it using a lightweight formal method; the secon d prize went to an approach that used SPARQL and rules; the best resource prize went to a submission that constructed word embedding of characters from all sentences of Sherlock Holmes novels; and the best idea prize went to a discussion multi - agents model . We conclude this paper with the plans and issues for the next challenge in 2019.

Counterfactual thinking describes a psychological phenomenon that people re-infer the possible results with different solutions about things that have already happened. It helps people to gain more experience from mistakes and thus to perform better in similar future tasks. This paper investigates the counterfactual thinking for agents to find optimal decision-making strategies in multi-agent reinforcement learning environments. In particular, we propose a multi-agent deep reinforcement learning model with a structure which mimics the human-psychological counterfactual thinking process to improve the competitive abilities for agents. To this end, our model generates several possible actions (intent actions) with a parallel policy structure and estimates the rewards and regrets for these intent actions based on its current understanding of the environment. Our model incorporates a scenario-based framework to link the estimated regrets with its inner policies. During the iterations, our model updates the parallel policies and the corresponding scenario-based regrets for agents simultaneously. To verify the effectiveness of our proposed model, we conduct extensive experiments on two different environments with real-world applications. Experimental results show that counterfactual thinking can actually benefit the agents to obtain more accumulative rewards from the environments with fair information by comparing to their opponents while keeping high performing efficiency.

Multi-agent systems have a wide range of applications in cooperative and competitive tasks. As the number of agents increases, nonstationarity gets more serious in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), which brings great difficulties to the learning process. Besides, current mainstream algorithms configure each agent an independent network,so that the memory usage increases linearly with the number of agents which greatly slows down the interaction with the environment. Inspired by Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), this paper proposes an iterative update method (IU) to stabilize the nonstationary environment. Further, we add first-person perspective and represent all agents by only one network which can change agents' policies from sequential compute to batch compute. Similar to continual lifelong learning, we realize the iterative update method in this unified representative network (IUUR). In this method, iterative update can greatly alleviate the nonstationarity of the environment, unified representation can speed up the interaction with environment and avoid the linear growth of memory usage. Besides, this method does not bother decentralized execution and distributed deployment. Experiments show that compared with MADDPG, our algorithm achieves state-of-the-art performance and saves wall-clock time by a large margin especially with more agents.