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Multiple Futures Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Temporal prediction is critical for making intelligent and robust decisions in complex dynamic environments. Motion prediction needs to model the inherently uncertain future which often contains multiple potential outcomes, due to multi-agent interactions and the latent goals of others. Towards these goals, we introduce a probabilistic framework that efficiently learns latent variables to jointly model the multi-step future motions of agents in a scene. Our framework is data-driven and learns semantically meaningful latent variables to represent the multimodal future, without requiring explicit labels. Using a dynamic attention-based state encoder, we learn to encode the past as well as the future interactions among agents, efficiently scaling to any number of agents. Finally, our model can be used for planning via computing a conditional probability density over the trajectories of other agents given a hypothetical rollout of the 'self' agent. We demonstrate our algorithms by predicting vehicle trajectories of both simulated and real data, demonstrating the state-of-the-art results on several vehicle trajectory datasets.


Finite-Sample Analysis of Decentralized Temporal-Difference Learning with Linear Function Approximation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Thanks to its generality, RL has been widely studied in many areas, such as control theory, game theory, operations research, multi-agent systems, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and statistics [23]. In recent years, combining with deep learning, RL has demonstrated its great potential in addressing challenging practical control and optimization problems [17, 21]. Among all possible algorithms, the temporal difference (TD) learning has arguably become one of the most popular RL algorithms so far, which is further dominated by the celebrated TD(0) algorithm [22]. TD learning provides an iterative process to update an estimate of the so-termed value function v π(s) with respect to a given policy π based on temporally successive samples. Dealing with a finite state space, the classical version of the TD(0) algorithm adopts a tabular representation for v π(s), which stores entry-wise value estimates on a per state basis. J. Sun and Q. Yang are with the College of Control Science and Engineering, and the State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China. G. Wang and G. B. Giannakis are with the Digital Technology Center and the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA. Z. Yang is with the Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.


Non-Cooperative Inverse Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Making decisions in the presence of a strategic opponent requires one to take into account the opponent's ability to actively mask its intended objective. To describe such strategic situations, we introduce the non-cooperative inverse reinforcement learning (N-CIRL) formalism. The N-CIRL formalism consists of two agents with completely misaligned objectives, where only one of the agents knows the true objective function. Formally, we model the N-CIRL formalism as a zero-sum Markov game with one-sided incomplete information. Through interacting with the more informed player, the less informed player attempts to both infer, and act according to, the true objective function. As a result of the one-sided incomplete information, the multi-stage game can be decomposed into a sequence of single-stage games expressed by a recursive formula. Solving this recursive formula yields the value of the N-CIRL game and the more informed player's equilibrium strategy. Another recursive formula, constructed by forming an auxiliary game, termed the dual game, yields the less informed player's strategy. Building upon these two recursive formulas, we develop a computationally tractable algorithm to approximately solve for the equilibrium strategies. Finally, we demonstrate the benefits of our N-CIRL formalism over the existing multi-agent IRL formalism via extensive numerical simulation in a novel cyber security setting.


Differentiable Inter Agent Learning to Solve the Prisoners-Switch Riddle

#artificialintelligence

Reinforcement Learning is a popular research area. This is mainly because it aims to model systems that otherwise seem intractable. From the famous Atari paper by Deepmind, we have come far. An interesting avenue of study in reinforcement learning is that of communicating agents: a setup where agents can send messages to each other in order to cooperate. A good case where communication will be essential is that of an environment that is only partially observable to each agent, whereas more information is required for the agents to complete the task cooperatively.


Differentiable Inter Agent Learning to Solve the Prisoners-Switch Riddle

#artificialintelligence

Reinforcement Learning is a popular research area. This is mainly because it aims to model systems that otherwise seem intractable. From the famous Atari paper by Deepmind, we have come far. An interesting avenue of study in reinforcement learning is that of communicating agents: a setup where agents can send messages to each other in order to cooperate. A good case where communication will be essential is that of an environment that is only partially observable to each agent, whereas more information is required for the agents to complete the task cooperatively.


Ethical Dilemmas of Strategic Coalitions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A coalition of agents, or a single agent, has an ethical dilemma between several statements if each joint action of the coalition forces at least one specific statement among them to be true. For example, any action in the trolley dilemma forces one specific group of people to die. In many cases, agents face ethical dilemmas because they are restricted in the amount of the resources they are ready to sacrifice to overcome the dilemma. The paper presents a sound and complete modal logical system that describes properties of dilemmas for a given limit on a sacrifice.


Salesforce update brings AI and Quip to customer service chat experience – TechCrunch

#artificialintelligence

When Salesforce introduced Einstein, its artificial intelligence platform in 2016, it was laying the ground work for artificial intelligence underpinnings across the platform. Since then the company has introduced a variety of AI enhancements to the Salesforce product family. Today, customer service got some AI updates. The goal of any customer service interaction is to get the customer answers as quickly as possible. Many users opt to use chat over phone, and Salesforce has added some AI features to help customer service agents get answers more quickly in the chat interface.


What's Next For Robotics: In The Field, Inferencing On The Edge - AI Trends

#artificialintelligence

Robots are a key application for AI and in addition to an excellent plenary talk by Julie Shah of MIT, a whole track was dedicated to AI in robotics applications. Dan Kara, VP of robotics and intelligent systems for WTWH Media, outlined some of the challenges in building robots--not chatbots, he clarified, but robots that act in the physical world. "It seems like every year it's just around the corner," he said, but this year the tailwinds are picking up. Robotics is the foundation for much of our work thus far in artificial intelligence and machine learning, Kara argued. "It's only been fairly recently that you've started getting artificial intelligence or machine learning moving off into different labs," he said.


Generating Justifications for Norm-Related Agent Decisions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

W e present an approach to generating natural language justifications of decisions derived from norm-based reasoning. Assuming an agent which maximally satisfies a set of rules specified in an object-oriented temporal logic, the user can ask factual questions (about the agent's rules, actions, and the extent to which the agent violated the rules) as well as "why" questions that require the agent comparing actual behavior to counterfactual trajectories with respect to these rules. To produce natural-sounding explanations, we focus on the subproblem of producing natural language clauses from statements in a fragment of temporal logic, and then describe how to embed these clauses into explanatory sentences. W e use a human judgment evaluation on a testbed task to compare our approach to variants in terms of intelligibility, mental model and perceived trust.


An A.I. has beat humans at yet another of our own games

#artificialintelligence

Many real-world applications require artificial agents to compete and coordinate with other agents in complex environments. As a stepping stone to this goal, the domain of StarCraft has emerged by consensus as an important challenge for artificial intelligence research, owing to its iconic and enduring status among the most difficult professional esports and its relevance to the real world in terms of its raw complexity and multiagent challenges. Over the course of a decade and numerous competitions 1–3, the best results have been made possible by hand-crafting major elements of the system, simplifying important aspects of the game, or using superhuman capabilities 4. Even with these modifications, no previous system has come close to rivalling the skill of top players in the full game. We chose to address the challenge of StarCraft using general purpose learning methods that are in principle applicable to other complex domains: a multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm that uses data from both human and agent games within a diverse league of continually adapting strategies and counterstrategies, each represented by deep neural networks5,6. We evaluated our agent, AlphaStar, in the full game of StarCraft II, through a series of online games against human players. AlphaStar was rated at Grandmaster level for all three StarCraft races and above 99.8% of officially ranked human players.