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A Comparative Study on Parameter Estimation in Software Reliability Modeling using Swarm Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work focuses on a comparison between the performances of two well-known Swarm algorithms: Cuckoo Search (CS) and Firefly Algorithm (FA), in estimating the parameters of Software Reliability Growth Models. This study is further reinforced using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). All algorithms are evaluated according to real software failure data, the tests are performed and the obtained results are compared to show the performance of each of the used algorithms. Furthermore, CS and FA are also compared with each other on bases of execution time and iteration number. Experimental results show that CS is more efficient in estimating the parameters of SRGMs, and it has outperformed FA in addition to PSO and ACO for the selected Data sets and employed models.


A Crash Course in Game Theory for Machine Learning: Classic and New Ideas

#artificialintelligence

Game theory is one of the most fascinating areas of mathematics that have influenced diverse fields such as economics, social sciences, biology and, obviously, computer science. Games are playing a key role in the evolution of artificial intelligence(AI). For starters, game environments are becoming a popular training mechanism in areas such as reinforcement learning or imitation learning. In theory, any multi-agent AI system can be subjected to gamified interactions between its participants. The branch of mathematics that formulates the principles of games is known as game theory.


Generating Emotionally Aligned Responses in Dialogues using Affect Control Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

State-of-the-art neural dialogue systems excel at syntactic and semantic modelling of language, but often have a hard time establishing emotional alignment with the human interactant during a conversation. In this work, we bring Affect Control Theory (ACT), a socio-mathematical model of emotions for human-human interactions, to the neural dialogue generation setting. ACT makes predictions about how humans respond to emotional stimuli in social situations. Due to this property, ACT and its derivative probabilistic models have been successfully deployed in several applications of Human-Computer Interaction, including empathetic tutoring systems, assistive healthcare devices and two-person social dilemma games. We investigate how ACT can be used to develop affect-aware conversational agents, which produce emotionally aligned responses to prompts and take into consideration the affective identities of the interactants.


Adversarial Machine Learning: Perspectives from Adversarial Risk Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Adversarial Machine Learning (AML) is emerging as a major field aimed at the protection of automated ML systems against security threats. The majority of work in this area has built upon a game-theoretic framework by modelling a conflict between an attacker and a defender. After reviewing game-theoretic approaches to AML, we discuss the benefits that a Bayesian Adversarial Risk Analysis perspective brings when defending ML based systems. A research agenda is included.


Path Planning Using Probability Tensor Flows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probability models have been proposed in the literature to account for "intelligent" behavior in many contexts. In this paper, probability propagation is applied to model agent's motion in potentially complex scenarios that include goals and obstacles. The backward flow provides precious background information to the agent's behavior, viz., inferences coming from the future determine the agent's actions. Probability tensors are layered in time in both directions in a manner similar to convolutional neural networks. The discussion is carried out with reference to a set of simulated grids where, despite the apparent task complexity, a solution, if feasible, is always found. The original model proposed by Attias has been extended to include non-absorbing obstacles, multiple goals and multiple agents. The emerging behaviors are very realistic and demonstrate great potentials of the application of this framework to real environments.


Catching Cheats: Detecting Strategic Manipulation in Distributed Optimisation of Electric Vehicle Aggregators

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Given the rapid rise of electric vehicles (EVs) worldwide, and the ambitious targets set for the near future, the management of large EV fleets must be seen as a priority. Specifically, we study a scenario where EV charging is managed through self-interested EV aggregators who compete in the day-ahead market in order to purchase the electricity needed to meet their clients' requirements. With the aim of reducing electricity costs and lowering the impact on electricity markets, a centralised bidding coordination framework has been proposed in the literature employing a coordinator. In order to improve privacy and limit the need for the coordinator, we propose a reformulation of the coordination framework as a decentralised algorithm, employing the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM). However, given the self-interested nature of the aggregators, they can deviate from the algorithm in order to reduce their energy costs. Hence, we study the strategic manipulation of the ADMM algorithm and, in doing so, describe and analyse different possible attack vectors and propose a mathematical framework to quantify and detect manipulation. Importantly, this detection framework is not limited to the considered EV scenario and can be applied to general ADMM algorithms. Finally, we test the proposed decentralised coordination and manipulation detection algorithms in realistic scenarios using real market and driver data from Spain. Our empirical results show that the decentralised algorithm's convergence to the optimal solution can be effectively disrupted by manipulative attacks achieving convergence to a different non-optimal solution which benefits the attacker. With respect to the detection algorithm, results indicate that it achieves very high accuracies and significantly outperforms a naive benchmark.


Reward Design in Cooperative Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning for Packet Routing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), how to design a suitable reward signal to accelerate learning and stabilize convergence is a critical problem. The global reward signal assigns the same global reward to all agents without distinguishing their contributions, while the local reward signal provides different local rewards to each agent based solely on individual behavior. Both of the two reward assignment approaches have some shortcomings: the former might encourage lazy agents, while the latter might produce selfish agents. In this paper, we study reward design problem in cooperative MARL based on packet routing environments. Firstly, we show that the above two reward signals are prone to produce suboptimal policies. Then, inspired by some observations and considerations, we design some mixed reward signals, which are off-the-shelf to learn better policies. Finally, we turn the mixed reward signals into the adaptive counterparts, which achieve best results in our experiments. Other reward signals are also discussed in this paper. As reward design is a very fundamental problem in RL and especially in MARL, we hope that MARL researchers can rethink the rewards used in their systems.


Interactive Robot Training for Non-Markov Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Defining sound and complete specifications for robots using formal languages is challenging, while learning formal specifications directly from demonstrations can lead to over-constrained task policies. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian interactive robot training framework that allows the robot to learn from both demonstrations provided by a teacher, and that teacher's assessments of the robot's task executions. We also present an active learning approach -- inspired by uncertainty sampling -- to identify the task execution with the most uncertain degree of acceptability. We demonstrate that active learning within our framework identifies a teacher's intended task specification to a greater degree of similarity when compared with an approach that learns purely from demonstrations. Finally, we also conduct a user-study that demonstrates the efficacy of our active learning framework in learning a table-setting task from a human teacher.


Model Assertions for Monitoring and Improving ML Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ML models are increasingly deployed in settings with real world interactions such as vehicles, but unfortunately, these models can fail in systematic ways. To prevent errors, ML engineering teams monitor and continuously improve these models. We propose a new abstraction, model assertions, that adapts the classical use of program assertions as a way to monitor and improve ML models. Model assertions are arbitrary functions over a model's input and output that indicate when errors may be occurring, e.g., a function that triggers if an object rapidly changes its class in a video. We propose methods of using model assertions at all stages of ML system deployment, including runtime monitoring, validating labels, and continuously improving ML models. For runtime monitoring, we show that model assertions can find high confidence errors, where a model returns the wrong output with high confidence, which uncertainty-based monitoring techniques would not detect. For training, we propose two methods of using model assertions. First, we propose a bandit-based active learning algorithm that can sample from data flagged by assertions and show that it can reduce labeling costs by up to 40% over traditional uncertainty-based methods. Second, we propose an API for generating "consistency assertions" (e.g., the class change example) and weak labels for inputs where the consistency assertions fail, and show that these weak labels can improve relative model quality by up to 46%. We evaluate model assertions on four real-world tasks with video, LIDAR, and ECG data.


Machines Never Lie but Programmers… Sometimes

#artificialintelligence

Bugs are things developers are expected to fix. If software has a bug, it's broken and needs repair. Unless, of course, it is artificially intelligent software. Then, we may be told, it's not broken. Just because current AI agents lack a theory of mind doesn't mean that they cannot learn to deceive.