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How effective can simple ordinal peer grading be?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ordinal peer grading has been proposed as a simple and scalable solution for computing reliable information about student performance in massive open online courses. The idea is to outsource the grading task to the students themselves as follows. After the end of an exam, each student is asked to rank -- in terms of quality -- a bundle of exam papers by fellow students. An aggregation rule then combines the individual rankings into a global one that contains all students. We define a broad class of simple aggregation rules, which we call type-ordering aggregation rules, and present a theoretical framework for assessing their effectiveness. When statistical information about the grading behaviour of students is available (in terms of a noise matrix that characterizes the grading behaviour of the average student from a student population), the framework can be used to compute the optimal rule from this class with respect to a series of performance objectives that compare the ranking returned by the aggregation rule to the underlying ground truth ranking. For example, a natural rule known as Borda is proved to be optimal when students grade correctly. In addition, we present extensive simulations that validate our theory and prove it to be extremely accurate in predicting the performance of aggregation rules even when only rough information about grading behaviour (i.e., an approximation of the noise matrix) is available. Both in the application of our theoretical framework and in our simulations, we exploit data about grading behaviour of students that have been extracted from two field experiments in the University of Patras.


Finance experts note importance of workforce diversity, global collaboration

The Japan Times

Against a backdrop of startling international developments, such as Brexit and the Hong Kong protests, Japan's financial sector is uniquely positioned to step out of the shadows of its competitors in Singapore and Hong Kong. This is the assessment of The Organization of Global Financial City Tokyo -- also known as FinCity.Tokyo -- which, on March 19, held its FinCity Global Forum at the Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi to explore the opportunities and challenges that await Japan in its pursuit to become a top global financial hub. Established in April 2019, FinCity.Tokyo is an organization that promotes Tokyo as a global financial hub and supports foreign financial services firms set up in Tokyo. In addition to the keynote and other speeches, the forum consisted of a series of panel discussions that invited industry veterans to discuss a wide array of topics, ranging from regional revitalization and socially oriented asset management to competition and collaboration among international financial cities. The first panel, centered on the theme of "Advancement of the Asset Management Industry and Global Financial City Initiative," invited panelists Yasumasa Tahara, director of the strategy development division at the Financial Services Agency; Kazuhide Toda, managing executive officer and chief investment officer at Nippon Life Insurance Company; and Oki Matsumoto, chairman and CEO at Monex Group Inc., to share their thoughts on how the industry can improve its asset management environment.


Scenario-Transferable Semantic Graph Reasoning for Interaction-Aware Probabilistic Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately predicting the possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles. Since autonomous vehicles need to navigate in dynamically changing environments, they are expected to make accurate predictions regardless of where they are and what driving circumstances they encountered. A number of methodologies have been proposed to solve prediction problems under different traffic situations. However, these works either focus on one particular driving scenario (e.g. highway, intersection, or roundabout) or do not take sufficient environment information (e.g. road topology, traffic rules, and surrounding agents) into account. In fact, the limitation to certain scenario is mainly due to the lackness of generic representations of the environment. The insufficiency of environment information further limits the flexibility and transferability of the predictor. In this paper, we propose a scenario-transferable and interaction-aware probabilistic prediction algorithm based on semantic graph reasoning, which predicts behaviors of selected agents. We put forward generic representations for various environment information and utilize them as building blocks to construct their spatio-temporal structural relations. We then take the advantage of these structured representations to develop a flexible and transferable prediction algorithm, where the predictor can be directly used under unforeseen driving circumstances that are completely different from training scenarios. The proposed algorithm is thoroughly examined under several complicated real-world driving scenarios to demonstrate its flexibility and transferability with the generic representation for autonomous driving systems.


Networked Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Emergent Communication

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) methods find optimal policies for agents that operate in the presence of other learning agents. Central to achieving this is how the agents coordinate. One way to coordinate is by learning to communicate with each other. Can the agents develop a language while learning to perform a common task? In this paper, we formulate and study a MARL problem where cooperative agents are connected to each other via a fixed underlying network. These agents can communicate along the edges of this network by exchanging discrete symbols. However, the semantics of these symbols are not predefined and, during training, the agents are required to develop a language that helps them in accomplishing their goals. We propose a method for training these agents using emergent communication. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework by applying it to the problem of managing traffic controllers, where we achieve state-of-the-art performance as compared to a number of strong baselines. More importantly, we perform a detailed analysis of the emergent communication to show, for instance, that the developed language is grounded and demonstrate its relationship with the underlying network topology. To the best of our knowledge, this is the only work that performs an in depth analysis of emergent communication in a networked MARL setting while being applicable to a broad class of problems.


Predicting Strategic Behavior from Free Text

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The connection between messaging and action is fundamental both to web applications, such as web search and sentiment analysis, and to economics. However, while prominent online applications exploit messaging in natural (human) language in order to predict non-strategic action selection, the economics literature focuses on the connection between structured stylized messaging to strategic decisions in games and multi-agent encounters. This paper aims to connect these two strands of research, which we consider highly timely and important due to the vast online textual communication on the web. Particularly, we introduce the following question: can free text expressed in natural language serve for the prediction of action selection in an economic context, modeled as a game? In order to initiate the research on this question, we introduce the study of an individual's action prediction in a one-shot game based on free text he/she provides, while being unaware of the game to be played. We approach the problem by attributing commonsensical personality attributes via crowd-sourcing to free texts written by individuals, and employing transductive learning to predict actions taken by these individuals in one-shot games based on these attributes. Our approach allows us to train a single classifier that can make predictions with respect to actions taken in multiple games. In experiments with three well-studied games, our algorithm compares favorably with strong alternative approaches. In ablation analysis, we demonstrate the importance of our modeling choices -- the representation of the text with the commonsensical personality attributes and our classifier -- to the predictive power of our model.


Uniform State Abstraction For Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Potential Based Reward Shaping combined with a potential function based on appropriately defined abstract knowledge has been shown to significantly improve learning speed in Reinforcement Learning. MultiGrid Reinforcement Learning (MRL) has further shown that such abstract knowledge in the form of a potential function can be learned almost solely from agent interaction with the environment. However, we show that MRL faces the problem of not extending well to work with Deep Learning. In this paper we extend and improve MRL to take advantage of modern Deep Learning algorithms such as Deep Q-Networks (DQN). We show that DQN augmented with our approach perform significantly better on continuous control tasks than its Vanilla counterpart and DQN augmented with MRL.


A Norm Emergence Framework for Normative MAS -- Position Paper

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Norm emergence is typically studied in the context of multiagent systems (MAS) where norms are implicit, and participating agents use simplistic decision-making mechanisms. These implicit norms are usually unconsciously shared and adopted through agent interaction. A norm is deemed to have emerged when a threshold or predetermined percentage of agents follow the "norm". Conversely, in normative MAS, norms are typically explicit and agents deliberately share norms through communication or are informed about norms by an authority, following which an agent decides whether to adopt the norm or not. The decision to adopt a norm by the agent can happen immediately after recognition or when an applicable situation arises. In this paper, we make the case that, similarly, a norm has emerged in a normative MAS when a percentage of agents adopt the norm. Furthermore, we posit that agents themselves can and should be involved in norm synthesis, and hence influence the norms governing the MAS, in line with Ostrom's eight principles. Consequently, we put forward a framework for the emergence of norms within a normative MAS, that allows participating agents to propose/request changes to the normative system, while special-purpose synthesizer agents formulate new norms or revisions in response to these requests. Synthesizers must collectively agree that the new norm or norm revision should proceed, and then finally be approved by an "Oracle". The normative system is then modified to incorporate the norm.


Trust-based Multiagent Consensus or Weightings Aggregation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a framework for reaching a consensus amongst several agents communicating via a trust network on conflicting information about their environment. We formalise our approach and provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of its properties.


Moroccan Artificial Intelligence Expert Joins UNESCO Ethics Commission

#artificialintelligence

UNESCO has appointed Moroccan artificial intelligence expert, Mrs. Amal El Fallah Seghrouchni, to the World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology (COMEST). The Moroccan researcher joins the commission for a four-year term, from 2020 to 2023. "It is an honor for me to serve ethics within this beautiful institution that is UNESCO," Seghrouchni shared on Twitter. The researcher holds a doctorate in artificial intelligence from the Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris. She is professor at the School of Science and Engineering of Sorbonne University.


Hedonic Games with Ordinal Preferences and Thresholds

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We propose a new representation setting for hedonic games, where each agent partitions the set of other agents into friends, enemies, and neutral agents, with friends and enemies being ranked. Under the assumption that preferences are monotonic (respectively, antimonotonic) with respect to the addition of friends (respectively, enemies), we propose a bipolar extension of the responsive extension principle, and use this principle to derive the (partial) preferences of agents over coalitions. Then, for a number of solution concepts, we characterize partitions that necessarily or possibly satisfy them, and we study the related problems in terms of their complexity.