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AI can predict your future behaviour with powerful new simulations

#artificialintelligence

The US presidential election campaign is in its final days. Donald Trump is behind in the polls and the pundits are predicting a win for his Democrat challenger, former vice president Joe Biden. He boasts that he will win again. With two weeks to go, his campaign unleashes an offensive in the crucial swing states: adverts, Facebook posts, WhatsApp groups and tweets. They warn of violent crime and civil unrest driven by immigrants and gangs, playing up Trump's endorsement by evangelicals and smearing Biden as a closet atheist. The initiative works and Trump snatches another unlikely victory.


Machine Learning in Artificial Intelligence: Towards a Common Understanding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The application of "machine learning" and "artificial intelligence" has become popular within the last decade. Both terms are frequently used in science and media, sometimes interchangeably, sometimes with different meanings. In this work, we aim to clarify the relationship between these terms and, in particular, to specify the contribution of machine learning to artificial intelligence. We review relevant literature and present a conceptual framework which clarifies the role of machine learning to build (artificial) intelligent agents. Hence, we seek to provide more terminological clarity and a starting point for (interdisciplinary) discussions and future research.


Too many cooks: Coordinating multi-agent collaboration through inverse planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Collaboration requires agents to coordinate their behavior on the fly, sometimes cooperating to solve a single task together and other times dividing it up into sub-tasks to work on in parallel. Underlying the human ability to collaborate is theory-of-mind, the ability to infer the hidden mental states that drive others to act. Here, we develop Bayesian Delegation, a decentralized multi-agent learning mechanism with these abilities. Bayesian Delegation enables agents to rapidly infer the hidden intentions of others by inverse planning. These inferences enable agents to flexibly decide in the absence of communication when to cooperate on the same sub-task and when to work on different sub-tasks in parallel. We test this model in a suite of multi-agent Markov decision processes inspired by cooking problems. To succeed, agents must coordinate both their high-level plans (e.g., what sub-task they should work on) and their low-level actions (e.g., avoiding collisions). Bayesian Delegation bridges these two levels and rapidly aligns agents' beliefs about who should work on what without any communication. When agents cooperate on the same sub-task, coordinated plans emerge that enable the group of agents to achieve tasks no agent can complete on their own. Our model outperforms lesioned agents without Bayesian Delegation or without the ability to cooperate on the same sub-task.


Noah Schwartz, Co-Founder & CEO of Quorum – Interview Series

#artificialintelligence

Noah is an AI systems architect. Prior to founding Quorum, Noah spent 12 years in academic research, first at the University of Southern California and most recently at Northwestern as the Assistant Chair of Neurobiology. His work focused on information processing in the brain and he has translated his research into products in augmented reality, brain-computer interfaces, computer vision, and embedded robotics control systems. Your interest in AI and robotics started as a little boy. How were you first introduced to these technologies?


Noah Schwartz, Co-Founder & CEO of Quorum – Interview Series

#artificialintelligence

Noah is an AI systems architect. Prior to founding Quorum, Noah spent 12 years in academic research, first at the University of Southern California and most recently at Northwestern as the Assistant Chair of Neurobiology. His work focused on information processing in the brain and he has translated his research into products in augmented reality, brain-computer interfaces, computer vision, and embedded robotics control systems. Your interest in AI and robotics started as a little boy. How were you first introduced to these technologies?


Optimising Game Tactics for Football

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we present a novel approach to optimise tactical and strategic decision making in football (soccer). We model the game of football as a multi-stage game which is made up from a Bayesian game to model the pre-match decisions and a stochastic game to model the in-match state transitions and decisions. Using this formulation, we propose a method to predict the probability of game outcomes and the payoffs of team actions. Building upon this, we develop algorithms to optimise team formation and in-game tactics with different objectives. Empirical evaluation of our approach on real-world datasets from 760 matches shows that by using optimised tactics from our Bayesian and stochastic games, we can increase a team chances of winning by up to 16.1\% and 3.4\% respectively.


Graph Neural Networks for Decentralized Controllers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dynamical systems comprised of autonomous agents arise in many relevant problems such as multi-agent robotics, smart grids, or smart cities. Controlling these systems is of paramount importance to guarantee a successful deployment. Optimal centralized controllers are readily available but face limitations in terms of scalability and practical implementation. Optimal decentralized controllers, on the other hand, are difficult to find. In this paper, we use graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn decentralized controllers from data. GNNs are well-suited for the task since they are naturally distributed architectures. Furthermore, they are equivariant and stable, leading to good scalability and transferability properties. The problem of flocking is explored to illustrate the power of GNNs in learning decentralized controllers.


Anticipatory Psychological Models for Quickest Change Detection: Human Sensor Interaction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider anticipatory psychological models for human decision makers and their effect on sequential decision making. From a decision theoretic point of view, such models are time inconsistent meaning that Bellman's principle of optimality does not hold. The aim of this paper is to study how such an anxiety-based anticipatory utility can affect sequential decision making, such as quickest change detection, in multi-agent systems. We show that the interaction between anticipation-driven agents and sequential decision maker results in unusual (nonconvex) structure of the optimal decision policy. The methodology yields a useful mathematical framework for sensor interaction involving a human decision maker (with behavioral economics constraints) and a sensor equipped with automated sequential detector.


Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Problems with Combined Individual and Team Reward

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many cooperative multi-agent problems require agents to learn individual tasks while contributing to the collective success of the group. This is a challenging task for current state-of-the-art multi-agent reinforcement algorithms that are designed to either maximize the global reward of the team or the individual local rewards. The problem is exacerbated when either of the rewards is sparse leading to unstable learning. To address this problem, we present Decomposed Multi-Agent Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DE-MADDPG): a novel cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning framework that simultaneously learns to maximize the global and local rewards. We evaluate our solution on the challenging defensive escort team problem and show that our solution achieves a significantly better and more stable performance than the direct adaptation of the MADDPG algorithm.


Modeling Contrary-to-Duty with CP-nets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modelling deontic notions through preferences [12] has the advantage of linking deontic notions to the manifold research on preferences, in multiple disciplines, such as philosophy, mathematics, economics and politics. In recent years, preferences have also been addressed within AI [15,8,18] and applications can be found in multi-agent systems [19] and recommender systems [17]. We shall model deontic notions through ceteris-paribus preferences, namely, conditional preferences for a state of affairs over another state of affairs, all the rest being equal. In particular, we shall focus on the ceteris-paribus preference for a proposition over its complement. The idea of ceteris-paribus preferences was originally introduced by the philosopher and logician Georg von Wright [22].