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Quantifying Notes Revisited

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To a multi-agent logic of knowledge or belief we can add public announcements to model publicly observed information change, or action models to model information change that is differently observed by different agents, but also modalities representing quantification over such information change, such as quantifiers over announcements or quantifiers over actions models. Such additions may result in more complex or undecidable logics, and create a very open landscape of relative expressivity. The survey [88] of such logics focused on open problems. Some such open problems have since then been resolved, and yet others have come to the fore. In this updated survey we review what is known about such logics with quantification over information change, including digressions into what are known as relation changing modal(but often not epistemic) logics. Again we focus on open problems.


Augmentation of the Reconstruction Performance of Fuzzy C-Means with an Optimized Fuzzification Factor Vector

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Information granules have been considered to be the fundamental constructs of Granular Computing (GrC). As a useful unsupervised learning technique, Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) is one of the most frequently used methods to construct information granules. The FCM-based granulation-degranulation mechanism plays a pivotal role in GrC. In this paper, to enhance the quality of the degranulation (reconstruction) process, we augment the FCM-based degranulation mechanism by introducing a vector of fuzzification factors (fuzzification factor vector) and setting up an adjustment mechanism to modify the prototypes and the partition matrix. The design is regarded as an optimization problem, which is guided by a reconstruction criterion. In the proposed scheme, the initial partition matrix and prototypes are generated by the FCM. Then a fuzzification factor vector is introduced to form an appropriate fuzzification factor for each cluster to build up an adjustment scheme of modifying the prototypes and the partition matrix. With the supervised learning mode of the granulation-degranulation process, we construct a composite objective function of the fuzzification factor vector, the prototypes and the partition matrix. Subsequently, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) is employed to optimize the fuzzification factor vector to refine the prototypes and develop the optimal partition matrix. Finally, the reconstruction performance of the FCM algorithm is enhanced. We offer a thorough analysis of the developed scheme. In particular, we show that the classical FCM algorithm forms a special case of the proposed scheme. Experiments completed for both synthetic and publicly available datasets show that the proposed approach outperforms the generic data reconstruction approach.


Training Data Set Assessment for Decision-Making in a Multiagent Landmine Detection Platform

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world problems such as landmine detection require multiple sources of information to reduce the uncertainty of decision-making. A novel approach to solve these problems includes distributed systems, as presented in this work based on hardware and software multi-agent systems. To achieve a high rate of landmine detection, we evaluate the performance of a trained system over the distribution of samples between training and validation sets. Additionally, a general explanation of the data set is provided, presenting the samples gathered by a cooperative multi-agent system developed for detecting improvised explosive devices. The results show that input samples affect the performance of the output decisions, and a decision-making system can be less sensitive to sensor noise with intelligent systems obtained from a diverse and suitably organised training set.


Implicit Multi-Agent Coordination at Unsignalized Intersections via Topological Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We focus on scenarios in which multiple rational, non-communicating agents navigate in close proximity, such as unsignalized street intersections. In these situations, decentralized coordination to achieve safe and efficient motion demands nuanced implicit communication between the agents. Often, the spatial structure of such environments constrains multi-agent trajectories to belong to a finite set of modes, each corresponding to a distinct spatiotemporal topology. Our key insight is that empowering agents with a model of this structure can enable effective coordination through implicit communication, realized via intent signals encoded in agents' actions. In this paper, we do so by representing modes of joint behavior as topological braids. We design a decentralized planning framework that incorporates a mechanism for inferring the emerging braid in the decision-making process. By executing actions that minimize the uncertainty over the upcoming braid, agents converge rapidly to a consensus over a joint collision avoidance strategy despite lacking knowledge of the destinations of others and accurate models of their behaviors. We validate our approach with a case study in a four-way unsignalized intersection involving a series of challenging multi-agent scenarios. Our findings show that our model reduces frequency of collisions by at least 65% over a set of explicit trajectory prediction baselines, while maintaining comparable efficiency.


Quantifying the Impact of Non-Stationarity in Reinforcement Learning-Based Traffic Signal Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In reinforcement learning (RL), dealing with non-stationarity is a challenging issue. However, some domains such as traffic optimization are inherently non-stationary. Causes for and effects of this are manifold. In particular, when dealing with traffic signal controls, addressing non-stationarity is key since traffic conditions change over time and as a function of traffic control decisions taken in other parts of a network. In this paper we analyze the effects that different sources of non-stationarity have in a network of traffic signals, in which each signal is modeled as a learning agent. More precisely, we study both the effects of changing the \textit{context} in which an agent learns (e.g., a change in flow rates experienced by it), as well as the effects of reducing agent observability of the true environment state. Partial observability may cause distinct states (in which distinct actions are optimal) to be seen as the same by the traffic signal agents. This, in turn, may lead to sub-optimal performance. We show that the lack of suitable sensors to provide a representative observation of the real state seems to affect the performance more drastically than the changes to the underlying traffic patterns.


Re-conceptualising the Language Game Paradigm in the Framework of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we formulate the challenge of re-conceptualising the language game experimental paradigm in the framework of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). If successful, future language game experiments will benefit from the rapid and promising methodological advances in the MARL community, while future MARL experiments on learning emergent communication will benefit from the insights and results gained from language game experiments. We strongly believe that this cross-pollination has the potential to lead to major breakthroughs in the modelling of how human-like languages can emerge and evolve in multi-agent systems.


How effective can simple ordinal peer grading be?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ordinal peer grading has been proposed as a simple and scalable solution for computing reliable information about student performance in massive open online courses. The idea is to outsource the grading task to the students themselves as follows. After the end of an exam, each student is asked to rank -- in terms of quality -- a bundle of exam papers by fellow students. An aggregation rule then combines the individual rankings into a global one that contains all students. We define a broad class of simple aggregation rules, which we call type-ordering aggregation rules, and present a theoretical framework for assessing their effectiveness. When statistical information about the grading behaviour of students is available (in terms of a noise matrix that characterizes the grading behaviour of the average student from a student population), the framework can be used to compute the optimal rule from this class with respect to a series of performance objectives that compare the ranking returned by the aggregation rule to the underlying ground truth ranking. For example, a natural rule known as Borda is proved to be optimal when students grade correctly. In addition, we present extensive simulations that validate our theory and prove it to be extremely accurate in predicting the performance of aggregation rules even when only rough information about grading behaviour (i.e., an approximation of the noise matrix) is available. Both in the application of our theoretical framework and in our simulations, we exploit data about grading behaviour of students that have been extracted from two field experiments in the University of Patras.


Finance experts note importance of workforce diversity, global collaboration

The Japan Times

Against a backdrop of startling international developments, such as Brexit and the Hong Kong protests, Japan's financial sector is uniquely positioned to step out of the shadows of its competitors in Singapore and Hong Kong. This is the assessment of The Organization of Global Financial City Tokyo -- also known as FinCity.Tokyo -- which, on March 19, held its FinCity Global Forum at the Grand Hyatt Tokyo in Roppongi to explore the opportunities and challenges that await Japan in its pursuit to become a top global financial hub. Established in April 2019, FinCity.Tokyo is an organization that promotes Tokyo as a global financial hub and supports foreign financial services firms set up in Tokyo. In addition to the keynote and other speeches, the forum consisted of a series of panel discussions that invited industry veterans to discuss a wide array of topics, ranging from regional revitalization and socially oriented asset management to competition and collaboration among international financial cities. The first panel, centered on the theme of "Advancement of the Asset Management Industry and Global Financial City Initiative," invited panelists Yasumasa Tahara, director of the strategy development division at the Financial Services Agency; Kazuhide Toda, managing executive officer and chief investment officer at Nippon Life Insurance Company; and Oki Matsumoto, chairman and CEO at Monex Group Inc., to share their thoughts on how the industry can improve its asset management environment.


Scenario-Transferable Semantic Graph Reasoning for Interaction-Aware Probabilistic Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurately predicting the possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles. Since autonomous vehicles need to navigate in dynamically changing environments, they are expected to make accurate predictions regardless of where they are and what driving circumstances they encountered. A number of methodologies have been proposed to solve prediction problems under different traffic situations. However, these works either focus on one particular driving scenario (e.g. highway, intersection, or roundabout) or do not take sufficient environment information (e.g. road topology, traffic rules, and surrounding agents) into account. In fact, the limitation to certain scenario is mainly due to the lackness of generic representations of the environment. The insufficiency of environment information further limits the flexibility and transferability of the predictor. In this paper, we propose a scenario-transferable and interaction-aware probabilistic prediction algorithm based on semantic graph reasoning, which predicts behaviors of selected agents. We put forward generic representations for various environment information and utilize them as building blocks to construct their spatio-temporal structural relations. We then take the advantage of these structured representations to develop a flexible and transferable prediction algorithm, where the predictor can be directly used under unforeseen driving circumstances that are completely different from training scenarios. The proposed algorithm is thoroughly examined under several complicated real-world driving scenarios to demonstrate its flexibility and transferability with the generic representation for autonomous driving systems.


Networked Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Emergent Communication

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) methods find optimal policies for agents that operate in the presence of other learning agents. Central to achieving this is how the agents coordinate. One way to coordinate is by learning to communicate with each other. Can the agents develop a language while learning to perform a common task? In this paper, we formulate and study a MARL problem where cooperative agents are connected to each other via a fixed underlying network. These agents can communicate along the edges of this network by exchanging discrete symbols. However, the semantics of these symbols are not predefined and, during training, the agents are required to develop a language that helps them in accomplishing their goals. We propose a method for training these agents using emergent communication. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework by applying it to the problem of managing traffic controllers, where we achieve state-of-the-art performance as compared to a number of strong baselines. More importantly, we perform a detailed analysis of the emergent communication to show, for instance, that the developed language is grounded and demonstrate its relationship with the underlying network topology. To the best of our knowledge, this is the only work that performs an in depth analysis of emergent communication in a networked MARL setting while being applicable to a broad class of problems.