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Insurance pricing on price comparison websites via reinforcement learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The emergence of price comparison websites (PCWs) has presented insurers with unique challenges in formulating effective pricing strategies. Operating on PCWs requires insurers to strike a delicate balance between competitive premiums and profitability, amidst obstacles such as low historical conversion rates, limited visibility of competitors' actions, and a dynamic market environment. In addition to this, the capital intensive nature of the business means pricing below the risk levels of customers can result in solvency issues for the insurer. To address these challenges, this paper introduces reinforcement learning (RL) framework that learns the optimal pricing policy by integrating model-based and model-free methods. The model-based component is used to train agents in an offline setting, avoiding cold-start issues, while model-free algorithms are then employed in a contextual bandit (CB) manner to dynamically update the pricing policy to maximise the expected revenue. This facilitates quick adaptation to evolving market dynamics and enhances algorithm efficiency and decision interpretability. The paper also highlights the importance of evaluating pricing policies using an offline dataset in a consistent fashion and demonstrates the superiority of the proposed methodology over existing off-the-shelf RL/CB approaches. We validate our methodology using synthetic data, generated to reflect private commercially available data within real-world insurers, and compare against 6 other benchmark approaches. Our hybrid agent outperforms these benchmarks in terms of sample efficiency and cumulative reward with the exception of an agent that has access to perfect market information which would not be available in a real-world set-up.


Multidisciplinary learning through collective performance favors decentralization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many models of learning in teams assume that team members can share solutions or learn concurrently. However, these assumptions break down in multidisciplinary teams where team members often complete distinct, interrelated pieces of larger tasks. Such contexts make it difficult for individuals to separate the performance effects of their own actions from the actions of interacting neighbors. In this work, we show that individuals can overcome this challenge by learning from network neighbors through mediating artifacts (like collective performance assessments). When neighbors' actions influence collective outcomes, teams with different networks perform relatively similarly to one another. However, varying a team's network can affect performance on tasks that weight individuals' contributions by network properties. Consequently, when individuals innovate (through ``exploring'' searches), dense networks hurt performance slightly by increasing uncertainty. In contrast, dense networks moderately help performance when individuals refine their work (through ``exploiting'' searches) by efficiently finding local optima. We also find that decentralization improves team performance across a battery of 34 tasks. Our results offer design principles for multidisciplinary teams within which other forms of learning prove more difficult.


Linear Delta Arrays for Compliant Dexterous Distributed Manipulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a new type of distributed dexterous manipulator: delta arrays. Our delta array setup consists of 64 linearly-actuated delta robots with 3D-printed compliant linkages. Through the design of the individual delta robots, the modular array structure, and distributed communication and control, we study a wide range of in-plane and out-of-plane manipulations, as well as prehensile manipulations among subsets of neighboring delta robots. We also demonstrate dexterous manipulation capabilities of the delta array using reinforcement learning while leveraging the compliance to not break the end-effectors. Our evaluations show that the resulting 192 DoF compliant robot is capable of performing various coordinated distributed manipulations of a variety of objects, including translation, alignment, prehensile squeezing, lifting, and grasping.


Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning via Mirror Descent Policy Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents an extension of the Mirror Descent method to overcome challenges in cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) settings, where agents have varying abilities and individual policies. The proposed Heterogeneous-Agent Mirror Descent Policy Optimization (HAMDPO) algorithm utilizes the multi-agent advantage decomposition lemma to enable efficient policy updates for each agent while ensuring overall performance improvements. By iteratively updating agent policies through an approximate solution of the trust-region problem, HAMDPO guarantees stability and improves performance. Moreover, the HAMDPO algorithm is capable of handling both continuous and discrete action spaces for heterogeneous agents in various MARL problems. We evaluate HAMDPO on Multi-Agent MuJoCo and StarCraftII tasks, demonstrating its superiority over state-of-the-art algorithms such as HATRPO and HAPPO. These results suggest that HAMDPO is a promising approach for solving cooperative MARL problems and could potentially be extended to address other challenging problems in the field of MARL.


CaRT: Certified Safety and Robust Tracking in Learning-based Motion Planning for Multi-Agent Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The key innovation of our analytical method, CaRT, lies in establishing a new hierarchical, distributed architecture to guarantee the safety and robustness of a given learning-based motion planning policy. First, in a nominal setting, the analytical form of our CaRT safety filter formally ensures safe maneuvers of nonlinear multi-agent systems, optimally with minimal deviation from the learning-based policy. Second, in off-nominal settings, the analytical form of our CaRT robust filter optimally tracks the certified safe trajectory, generated by the previous layer in the hierarchy, the CaRT safety filter. We show using contraction theory that CaRT guarantees safety and the exponential boundedness of the trajectory tracking error, even under the presence of deterministic and stochastic disturbance. Also, the hierarchical nature of CaRT enables enhancing its robustness for safety just by its superior tracking to the certified safe trajectory, thereby making it suitable for off-nominal scenarios with large disturbances. This is a major distinction from conventional safety function-driven approaches, where the robustness originates from the stability of a safe set, which could pull the system over-conservatively to the interior of the safe set. Our log-barrier formulation in CaRT allows for its distributed implementation in multi-agent settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CaRT in several examples of nonlinear motion planning and control problems, including optimal, multi-spacecraft reconfiguration.


Emergent communication for AR

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mobile augmented reality (MAR) is widely acknowledged as one of the ubiquitous interfaces to the digital twin and Metaverse, demanding unparalleled levels of latency, computational power, and energy efficiency. The existing solutions for realizing MAR combine multiple technologies like edge, cloud computing, and fifth-generation (5G) networks. However, the inherent communication latency of visual data imposes apparent limitations on the quality of experience (QoE). To address the challenge, we propose an emergent semantic communication framework to learn the communication protocols in MAR. Specifically, we train two agents through a modified Lewis signaling game to emerge a discrete communication protocol spontaneously. Based on this protocol, two agents can communicate about the abstract idea of visual data through messages with extremely small data sizes in a noisy channel, which leads to message errors. To better simulate real-world scenarios, we incorporate channel uncertainty into our training process. Experiments have shown that the proposed scheme has better generalization on unseen objects than traditional object recognition used in MAR and can effectively enhance communication efficiency through the utilization of small-size messages.


Polar Collision Grids: Effective Interaction Modelling for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction in Shared Space Using Collision Checks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting pedestrians' trajectories is a crucial capability for autonomous vehicles' safe navigation, especially in spaces shared with pedestrians. Pedestrian motion in shared spaces is influenced by both the presence of vehicles and other pedestrians. Therefore, effectively modelling both pedestrian-pedestrian and pedestrian-vehicle interactions can increase the accuracy of the pedestrian trajectory prediction models. Despite the huge literature on ways to encode the effect of interacting agents on a pedestrian's predicted trajectory using deep-learning models, limited effort has been put into the effective selection of interacting agents. In the majority of cases, the interaction features used are mainly based on relative distances while paying less attention to the effect of the velocity and approaching direction in the interaction formulation. In this paper, we propose a heuristic-based process of selecting the interacting agents based on collision risk calculation. Focusing on interactions of potentially colliding agents with a target pedestrian, we propose the use of time-to-collision and the approach direction angle of two agents for encoding the interaction effect. This is done by introducing a novel polar collision grid map. Our results have shown predicted trajectories closer to the ground truth compared to existing methods (used as a baseline) on the HBS dataset.


Latent Emission-Augmented Perspective-Taking (LEAPT) for Human-Robot Interaction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Perspective-taking is the ability to perceive or understand a situation or concept from another individual's point of view, and is crucial in daily human interactions. Enabling robots to perform perspective-taking remains an unsolved problem; existing approaches that use deterministic or handcrafted methods are unable to accurately account for uncertainty in partially-observable settings. This work proposes to address this limitation via a deep world model that enables a robot to perform both perception and conceptual perspective taking, i.e., the robot is able to infer what a human sees and believes. The key innovation is a decomposed multi-modal latent state space model able to generate and augment fictitious observations/emissions. Optimizing the ELBO that arises from this probabilistic graphical model enables the learning of uncertainty in latent space, which facilitates uncertainty estimation from high-dimensional observations. We tasked our model to predict human observations and beliefs on three partially-observable HRI tasks. Experiments show that our method significantly outperforms existing baselines and is able to infer visual observations available to other agent and their internal beliefs.


Testing System Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We discuss the adequacy of tests for intelligent systems and practical problems raised by their implementation. We propose the replacement test as the ability of a system to replace successfully another system performing a task in a given context. We show how it can characterize salient aspects of human intelligence that cannot be taken into account by the Turing test. We argue that building intelligent systems passing the replacement test involves a series of technical problems that are outside the scope of current AI. We present a framework for implementing the proposed test and validating the properties of the intelligent systems. We discuss the inherent limitations of intelligent system validation and advocate new theoretical foundations for extending existing rigorous test methods. We suggest that the replacement test, based on the complementarity of skills between human and machine, can lead to a multitude of intelligence concepts reflecting the ability to combine data-based and symbolic knowledge to varying degrees.


An Efficient Stochastic Algorithm for Decentralized Nonconvex-Strongly-Concave Minimax Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies the stochastic optimization for decentralized nonconvex-strongly-concave (NC-SC) minimax problems over a multi-agent network. We propose an efficient algorithm, called the Decentralized Recursive-gradient descEnt Ascent Method (DREAM), which achieves the best-known theoretical guarantee for finding the $\epsilon$-stationary point of the primal function. The proposed method requires $\mathcal{O}(\min (\kappa^3\epsilon^{-3},\sqrt{N} \kappa^2 \epsilon^{-2} ))$ stochastic first-order oracle (SFO) calls and $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\kappa^2 \epsilon^{-2})$ communication rounds to find an $\epsilon$-stationary point, where $\kappa$ is the condition number. DREAM achieves the best-known complexity for both the online and offline setups.