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Agent based network modelling of COVID-19 disease dynamics and vaccination uptake in a New South Wales Country Township

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We employ an agent-based contact network model to study the relationship between vaccine uptake and disease dynamics in a hypothetical country town from New South Wales, Australia, undergoing a COVID-19 epidemic, over a period of three years. We model the contact network in this hypothetical township of N = 10000 people as a scale-free network, and simulate the spread of COVID-19 and vaccination program using disease and vaccination uptake parameters typically observed in such a NSW town. We simulate the spread of the ancestral variant of COVID-19 in this town, and study the disease dynamics while the town maintains limited but non-negligible contact with the rest of the country which is assumed to be undergoing a severe COVID-19 epidemic. We also simulate a maximum three doses of Pfizer Comirnaty vaccine being administered in this town, with limited vaccine supply at first which gradually increases, and analyse how the vaccination uptake affects the disease dynamics in this town, which is captured using an extended compartmental model with epidemic parameters typical for a COVID-19 epidemic in Australia. Our results show that, in such a township, three vaccination doses are sufficient to contain but not eradicate COVID-19, and the disease essentially becomes endemic. We also show that the average degree of infected nodes (the average number of contacts for infected people) predicts the proportion of infected people. Therefore, if the hubs (people with a relatively high number of contacts) are disproportionately infected, this indicates an oncoming peak of the infection, though the lag time thereof depends on the maximum number of vaccines administered to the populace. Overall, our analysis provides interesting insights in understanding the interplay between network topology, vaccination levels, and COVID-19 disease dynamics in a typical remote NSW country town.


Disentangled Neural Relational Inference for Interpretable Motion Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective interaction modeling and behavior prediction of dynamic agents play a significant role in interactive motion planning for autonomous robots. Although existing methods have improved prediction accuracy, few research efforts have been devoted to enhancing prediction model interpretability and out-of-distribution (OOD) generalizability. This work addresses these two challenging aspects by designing a variational auto-encoder framework that integrates graph-based representations and time-sequence models to efficiently capture spatio-temporal relations between interactive agents and predict their dynamics. Our model infers dynamic interaction graphs in a latent space augmented with interpretable edge features that characterize the interactions. Moreover, we aim to enhance model interpretability and performance in OOD scenarios by disentangling the latent space of edge features, thereby strengthening model versatility and robustness. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets. The results show superior performance compared to existing methods in modeling spatio-temporal relations, motion prediction, and identifying time-invariant latent features.


Privacy-Preserving in Blockchain-based Federated Learning Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated Learning (FL) has recently arisen as a revolutionary approach to collaborative training Machine Learning models. According to this novel framework, multiple participants train a global model collaboratively, coordinating with a central aggregator without sharing their local data. As FL gains popularity in diverse domains, security, and privacy concerns arise due to the distributed nature of this solution. Therefore, integrating this strategy with Blockchain technology has been consolidated as a preferred choice to ensure the privacy and security of participants. This paper explores the research efforts carried out by the scientific community to define privacy solutions in scenarios adopting Blockchain-Enabled FL. It comprehensively summarizes the background related to FL and Blockchain, evaluates existing architectures for their integration, and the primary attacks and possible countermeasures to guarantee privacy in this setting. Finally, it reviews the main application scenarios where Blockchain-Enabled FL approaches have been proficiently applied. This survey can help academia and industry practitioners understand which theories and techniques exist to improve the performance of FL through Blockchain to preserve privacy and which are the main challenges and future directions in this novel and still under-explored context. We believe this work provides a novel contribution respect to the previous surveys and is a valuable tool to explore the current landscape, understand perspectives, and pave the way for advancements or improvements in this amalgamation of Blockchain and Federated Learning.


NovelGym: A Flexible Ecosystem for Hybrid Planning and Learning Agents Designed for Open Worlds

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI agents leave the lab and venture into the real world as autonomous vehicles, delivery robots, and cooking robots, it is increasingly necessary to design and comprehensively evaluate algorithms that tackle the ``open-world''. To this end, we introduce NovelGym, a flexible and adaptable ecosystem designed to simulate gridworld environments, serving as a robust platform for benchmarking reinforcement learning (RL) and hybrid planning and learning agents in open-world contexts. The modular architecture of NovelGym facilitates rapid creation and modification of task environments, including multi-agent scenarios, with multiple environment transformations, thus providing a dynamic testbed for researchers to develop open-world AI agents.


ClusterComm: Discrete Communication in Decentralized MARL using Internal Representation Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Addressing this, we introduce ClusterComm, a fully decentralized MARL framework where agents communicate discretely without a central control unit. ClusterComm utilizes Mini-Batch-K-Means clustering on the last hidden layer's activations of an agent's policy network, translating them into discrete messages. This approach outperforms no communication and competes favorably with unbounded, continuous communication and hence poses a simple yet effective strategy for enhancing collaborative task-solving in MARL.


Decentralized Federated Policy Gradient with Byzantine Fault-Tolerance and Provably Fast Convergence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Federated Reinforcement Learning (FRL), agents aim to collaboratively learn a common task, while each agent is acting in its local environment without exchanging raw trajectories. Existing approaches for FRL either (a) do not provide any fault-tolerance guarantees (against misbehaving agents), or (b) rely on a trusted central agent (a single point of failure) for aggregating updates. We provide the first decentralized Byzantine fault-tolerant FRL method. Towards this end, we first propose a new centralized Byzantine fault-tolerant policy gradient (PG) algorithm that improves over existing methods by relying only on assumptions standard for non-fault-tolerant PG. Then, as our main contribution, we show how a combination of robust aggregation and Byzantine-resilient agreement methods can be leveraged in order to eliminate the need for a trusted central entity. Since our results represent the first sample complexity analysis for Byzantine fault-tolerant decentralized federated non-convex optimization, our technical contributions may be of independent interest. Finally, we corroborate our theoretical results experimentally for common RL environments, demonstrating the speed-up of decentralized federations w.r.t. the number of participating agents and resilience against various Byzantine attacks.


Exploring Large Language Model based Intelligent Agents: Definitions, Methods, and Prospects

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Intelligent agents stand out as a potential path toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). Thus, researchers have dedicated significant effort to diverse implementations for them. Benefiting from recent progress in large language models (LLMs), LLM-based agents that use universal natural language as an interface exhibit robust generalization capabilities across various applications -- from serving as autonomous general-purpose task assistants to applications in coding, social, and economic domains, LLM-based agents offer extensive exploration opportunities. This paper surveys current research to provide an in-depth overview of LLM-based intelligent agents within single-agent and multi-agent systems. It covers their definitions, research frameworks, and foundational components such as their composition, cognitive and planning methods, tool utilization, and responses to environmental feedback. We also delve into the mechanisms of deploying LLM-based agents in multi-agent systems, including multi-role collaboration, message passing, and strategies to alleviate communication issues between agents. The discussions also shed light on popular datasets and application scenarios. We conclude by envisioning prospects for LLM-based agents, considering the evolving landscape of AI and natural language processing.


Engineering Features to Improve Pass Prediction in Soccer Simulation 2D Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Soccer Simulation 2D (SS2D) is a simulation of a real soccer game in two dimensions. In soccer, passing behavior is an essential action for keeping the ball in possession of our team and creating goal opportunities. Similarly, for SS2D, predicting the passing behaviors of both opponents and our teammates helps manage resources and score more goals. Therefore, in this research, we have tried to address the modeling of passing behavior of soccer 2D players using Deep Neural Networks (DNN) and Random Forest (RF). We propose an embedded data extraction module that can record the decision-making of agents in an online format. Afterward, we apply four data sorting techniques for training data preparation. After, we evaluate the trained models' performance playing against 6 top teams of RoboCup 2019 that have distinctive playing strategies. Finally, we examine the importance of different feature groups on the prediction of a passing strategy. All results in each step of this work prove our suggested methodology's effectiveness and improve the performance of the pass prediction in Soccer Simulation 2D games ranging from 5\% (e.g., playing against the same team) to 10\% (e.g., playing against Robocup top teams).


Escalation Risks from Language Models in Military and Diplomatic Decision-Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Governments are increasingly considering integrating autonomous AI agents in high-stakes military and foreign-policy decision-making, especially with the emergence of advanced generative AI models like GPT-4. Our work aims to scrutinize the behavior of multiple AI agents in simulated wargames, specifically focusing on their predilection to take escalatory actions that may exacerbate multilateral conflicts. Drawing on political science and international relations literature about escalation dynamics, we design a novel wargame simulation and scoring framework to assess the escalation risks of actions taken by these agents in different scenarios. Contrary to prior studies, our research provides both qualitative and quantitative insights and focuses on large language models (LLMs). We find that all five studied off-the-shelf LLMs show forms of escalation and difficult-to-predict escalation patterns. We observe that models tend to develop arms-race dynamics, leading to greater conflict, and in rare cases, even to the deployment of nuclear weapons. Qualitatively, we also collect the models' reported reasonings for chosen actions and observe worrying justifications based on deterrence and first-strike tactics. Given the high stakes of military and foreign-policy contexts, we recommend further examination and cautious consideration before deploying autonomous language model agents for strategic military or diplomatic decision-making.


Improving Dribbling, Passing, and Marking Actions in Soccer Simulation 2D Games Using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The RoboCup competition was started in 1997, and is known as the oldest RoboCup league. The RoboCup 2D Soccer Simulation League is a stochastic, partially observable soccer environment in which 24 autonomous agents play on two opposing teams. In this paper, we detail the main strategies and functionalities of CYRUS, the RoboCup 2021 2D Soccer Simulation League champions. The new functionalities presented and discussed in this work are (i) Multi Action Dribble, (ii) Pass Prediction and (iii) Marking Decision. The Multi Action Dribbling strategy enabled CYRUS to succeed more often and to be safer when dribbling actions were performed during a game. The Pass Prediction enhanced our gameplay by predicting our teammate's passing behavior, anticipating and making our agents collaborate better towards scoring goals. Finally, the Marking Decision addressed the multi-agent matching problem to improve CYRUS defensive strategy by finding an optimal solution to mark opponents' players.