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Why A.I. Didn't Transform Our Lives in 2025

The New Yorker

This was supposed to be the year when autonomous agents took over everyday tasks. One year ago, Sam Altman, the C.E.O. of OpenAI, made a bold prediction: "We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies." A couple of weeks later, the company's chief product officer, Kevin Weil, said at the World Economic Forum conference at Davos in January, "I think 2025 is the year that we go from ChatGPT being this super smart thing . . . to ChatGPT doing things in the real world for you." He gave examples of artificial intelligence filling out online forms and booking restaurant reservations. He later promised, "We're going to be able to do that, no question."


Multi-Agent Learning with Heterogeneous Linear Contextual Bandits

Neural Information Processing Systems

As trained intelligent systems become increasingly pervasive, multiagent learning has emerged as a popular framework for studying complex interactions between autonomous agents. Yet, a formal understanding of how and when learners in heterogeneous environments benefit from sharing their respective experiences is far from complete. In this paper, we seek answers to these questions in the context of linear contextual bandits. We present a novel distributed learning algorithm based on the upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm, which we refer to as H-LINUCB, wherein agents cooperatively minimize the group regret under the coordination of a central server. In the setting where the level of heterogeneity or dissimilarity across the environments is known to the agents, we show that H-LINUCB is provably optimal in regimes where the tasks are highly similar or highly dissimilar.


Decompose a Task into Generalizable Subtasks in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

In recent years, Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) techniques have made significant strides in achieving high asymptotic performance in single task. However, there has been limited exploration of model transferability across tasks. Training a model from scratch for each task can be time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-scale Multi-Agent Systems. Therefore, it is crucial to develop methods for generalizing the model across tasks. Considering that there exist task-independent subtasks across MARL tasks, a model that can decompose such subtasks from the source task could generalize to target tasks. However, ensuring true task-independence of subtasks poses a challenge. In this paper, we propose to \textbf{d}ecompose a \textbf{t}ask in\textbf{to} a series of \textbf{g}eneralizable \textbf{s}ubtasks (DT2GS), a novel framework that addresses this challenge by utilizing a scalable subtask encoder and an adaptive subtask semantic module. We show that these components endow subtasks with two properties critical for task-independence: avoiding overfitting to the source task and maintaining consistent yet scalable semantics across tasks. Empirical results demonstrate that DT2GS possesses sound zero-shot generalization capability across tasks, exhibits sufficient transferability, and outperforms existing methods in both multi-task and single-task problems.


Counterfactual Conservative Q Learning for Offline Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Offline multi-agent reinforcement learning is challenging due to the coupling effect of both distribution shift issue common in offline setting and the high dimension issue common in multi-agent setting, making the action out-of-distribution (OOD) and value overestimation phenomenon excessively severe. To mitigate this problem, we propose a novel multi-agent offline RL algorithm, named CounterFactual Conservative Q-Learning (CFCQL) to conduct conservative value estimation. Rather than regarding all the agents as a high dimensional single one and directly applying single agent conservative methods to it, CFCQL calculates conservative regularization for each agent separately in a counterfactual way and then linearly combines them to realize an overall conservative value estimation. We prove that it still enjoys the underestimation property and the performance guarantee as those single agent conservative methods do, but the induced regularization and safe policy improvement bound are independent of the agent number, which is therefore theoretically superior to the direct treatment referred to above, especially when the agent number is large. We further conduct experiments on four environments including both discrete and continuous action settings on both existing and our man-made datasets, demonstrating that CFCQL outperforms existing methods on most datasets and even with a remarkable margin on some of them.


The Best of Both Worlds in Network Population Games: Reaching Consensus and Convergence to Equilibrium

Neural Information Processing Systems

Reaching consensus and convergence to equilibrium are two major challenges of multi-agent systems. Although each has attracted significant attention, relatively few studies address both challenges at the same time. This paper examines the connection between the notions of consensus and equilibrium in a multi-agent system where multiple interacting sub-populations coexist. We argue that consensus can be seen as an intricate component of intra-population stability, whereas equilibrium can be seen as encoding inter-population stability. We show that smooth fictitious play, a well-known learning model in game theory, can achieve both consensus and convergence to equilibrium in diverse multi-agent settings. Moreover, we show that the consensus formation process plays a crucial role in the seminal thorny problem of equilibrium selection in multi-agent learning.


DIFFER:Decomposing Individual Reward for Fair Experience Replay in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is a challenging task, as agents must learn complex and diverse individual strategies from a shared team reward. However, existing methods struggle to distinguish and exploit important individual experiences, as they lack an effective way to decompose the team reward into individual rewards. To address this challenge, we propose DIFFER, a powerful theoretical framework for decomposing individual rewards to enable fair experience replay in MARL.By enforcing the invariance of network gradients, we establish a partial differential equation whose solution yields the underlying individual reward function. The individual TD-error can then be computed from the solved closed-form individual rewards, indicating the importance of each piece of experience in the learning task and guiding the training process. Our method elegantly achieves an equivalence to the original learning framework when individual experiences are homogeneous, while also adapting to achieve more muscular efficiency and fairness when diversity is observed.Our extensive experiments on popular benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our theory and method, demonstrating significant improvements in learning efficiency and fairness. Code is available in supplement material.


Dual Self-Awareness Value Decomposition Framework without Individual Global Max for Cooperative MARL

Neural Information Processing Systems

Value decomposition methods have gained popularity in the field of cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning. However, almost all existing methods follow the principle of Individual Global Max (IGM) or its variants, which limits their problem-solving capabilities. To address this, we propose a dual self-awareness value decomposition framework, inspired by the notion of dual self-awareness in psychology, that entirely rejects the IGM premise. Each agent consists of an ego policy for action selection and an alter ego value function to solve the credit assignment problem. The value function factorization can ignore the IGM assumption by utilizing an explicit search procedure. On the basis of the above, we also suggest a novel anti-ego exploration mechanism to avoid the algorithm becoming stuck in a local optimum. As the first fully IGM-free value decomposition method, our proposed framework achieves desirable performance in various cooperative tasks.


Statistical and Computational Trade-off in Multi-Agent Multi-Armed Bandits

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of regret minimization in Multi-Agent Multi-Armed Bandits (MAMABs) where the rewards are defined through a factor graph. We derive an instance-specific regret lower bound and characterize the minimal expected number of times each global action should be explored. Unfortunately, this bound and the corresponding optimal exploration process are obtained by solving a combinatorial optimization problem with a set of variables and constraints exponentially growing with the number of agents. We approximate the regret lower bound problem via Mean Field techniques to reduce the number of variables and constraints. By tuning the latter, we explore the trade-off between achievable regret and complexity. We devise Efficient Sampling for MAMAB (ESM), an algorithm whose regret asymptotically matches the corresponding approximated lower bound. We assess the regret and computational complexity of ESM numerically, using both synthetic and real-world experiments in radio communications networks.


Hierarchical Multi-Agent Skill Discovery

Neural Information Processing Systems

Skill discovery has shown significant progress in unsupervised reinforcement learning. This approach enables the discovery of a wide range of skills without any extrinsic reward, which can be effectively combined to tackle complex tasks. However, such unsupervised skill learning has not been well applied to multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) due to two primary challenges. One is how to learn skills not only for the individual agents but also for the entire team, and the other is how to coordinate the skills of different agents to accomplish multi-agent tasks. To address these challenges, we present Hierarchical Multi-Agent Skill Discovery (HMASD), a two-level hierarchical algorithm for discovering both team and individual skills in MARL. The high-level policy employs a transformer structure to realize sequential skill assignment, while the low-level policy learns to discover valuable team and individual skills. We evaluate HMASD on sparse reward multi-agent benchmarks, and the results show that HMASD achieves significant performance improvements compared to strong MARL baselines.