The industry is rich in cases when we are required to make forecasting for large amounts of time series at once. However, we might be in a situation where we can not afford to train a separate model for each of them. Such issue in time series modeling remains without due attention. The remedy for this setting is the establishment of a foundation model. Such a model is expected to work in zero-shot and few-shot regimes. However, what should we take as a training dataset for such kind of model? Witnessing the benefits from the enrichment of NLP datasets with artificially-generated data, we might want to adopt their experience for time series. In contrast to natural language, the process of generation of synthetic time series data is even more favorable because it provides full control of series patterns, time horizons, and number of samples. In this work, we consider the essential question if it is advantageous to train a foundation model on synthetic data or it is better to utilize only a limited number of real-life examples. Our experiments are conducted only for regular time series and speak in favor of leveraging solely the real time series. Moreover, the choice of the proper source dataset strongly influences the performance during inference. When provided access even to a limited quantity of short time series data, employing it within a supervised framework yields more favorable results than training on a larger volume of synthetic data. The code for our experiments is publicly available on Github \url{https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/synthesize_or_not}.

Mixtral, a representative sparse mixture of experts (SMoE) language model, has received significant attention due to its unique model design and superior performance. Based on Mixtral-8x7B-v0.1, in this paper, we propose Chinese-Mixtral and Chinese-Mixtral-Instruct with improved Chinese language abilities by adopting further pre-training and instruction fine-tuning. Experimental results show that our Chinese-Mixtral and Chinese-Mixtral-Instruct successfully improve Chinese understanding and generation performance while retaining the original English abilities. Then, we discuss several key questions when performing language adaptation on large language models, including the necessity of extending the language-specific vocabulary and the choice of the initialization model (foundation model v.s. instruction model), by providing empirical results and analysis. We also present the visualizations of each expert to examine their importance on downstream tasks. Our resources are publicly available through \url{https://github.com/ymcui/Chinese-Mixtral}.

Pre-trained language models have been proven to possess strong base capabilities, which not only excel in in-distribution language modeling but also show powerful abilities in out-of-distribution language modeling, transfer learning and few-shot learning. Unlike existing work focusing on the influence of scale on base capabilities, our work examines the influence of architecture on those. Specifically, our concern is: How does architecture influence the base capabilities of pre-trained language models? In this work, we attempt to explain and reverse the decline in base capabilities caused by the architecture of FFN-Wider Transformers, seeking to provide some insights. Through analysis, we found the contribution ratio of Multi-Head Attention (a combination function) to pre-trained language modeling is a key factor affecting base capabilities. FFN-Wider Transformers reduce the contribution ratio of this combination function, leading to a decline in base capabilities. We confirmed this by experiments and proposed Combination Enhancement Architecture (CEA) to address the decline in base capabilities of such models. Significantly, we extended our explanation and CEA to Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture Transformers, which also alleviated their decline in base capabilities to some extent, proving our work can offer useful guidance for architecture analysis, architecture improvement and architecture design.

The massive generation of multimodal fake news exhibits substantial distribution discrepancies, prompting the need for generalized detectors. However, the insulated nature of training within specific domains restricts the capability of classical detectors to obtain open-world facts. In this paper, we propose FakeNewsGPT4, a novel framework that augments Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) with forgery-specific knowledge for manipulation reasoning while inheriting extensive world knowledge as complementary. Knowledge augmentation in FakeNewsGPT4 involves acquiring two types of forgery-specific knowledge, i.e., semantic correlation and artifact trace, and merging them into LVLMs. Specifically, we design a multi-level cross-modal reasoning module that establishes interactions across modalities for extracting semantic correlations. Concurrently, a dual-branch fine-grained verification module is presented to comprehend localized details to encode artifact traces. The generated knowledge is translated into refined embeddings compatible with LVLMs. We also incorporate candidate answer heuristics and soft prompts to enhance input informativeness. Extensive experiments on the public benchmark demonstrate that FakeNewsGPT4 achieves superior cross-domain performance compared to previous methods. Code will be available.

Language models have long been shown to embed geographical information in their hidden representations. This line of work has recently been revisited by extending this result to Large Language Models (LLMs). In this paper, we propose to fill the gap between well-established and recent literature by observing how geographical knowledge evolves when scaling language models. We show that geographical knowledge is observable even for tiny models, and that it scales consistently as we increase the model size. Notably, we observe that larger language models cannot mitigate the geographical bias that is inherent to the training data.

Conversational information-seeking (CIS) is an emerging paradigm for knowledge acquisition and exploratory search. Traditional web search interfaces enable easy exploration of entities, but this is limited in conversational settings due to the limited-bandwidth interface. This paper explore ways to rewrite answers in CIS, so that users can understand them without having to resort to external services or sources. Specifically, we focus on salient entities -- entities that are central to understanding the answer. As our first contribution, we create a dataset of conversations annotated with entities for saliency. Our analysis of the collected data reveals that the majority of answers contain salient entities. As our second contribution, we propose two answer rewriting strategies aimed at improving the overall user experience in CIS. One approach expands answers with inline definitions of salient entities, making the answer self-contained. The other approach complements answers with follow-up questions, offering users the possibility to learn more about specific entities. Results of a crowdsourcing-based study indicate that rewritten answers are clearly preferred over the original ones. We also find that inline definitions tend to be favored over follow-up questions, but this choice is highly subjective, thereby providing a promising future direction for personalization.

Jailbreaking is an emerging adversarial attack that bypasses the safety alignment deployed in off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs). A considerable amount of research exists proposing more effective jailbreak attacks, including the recent Greedy Coordinate Gradient (GCG) attack, jailbreak template-based attacks such as using "Do-Anything-Now" (DAN), and multilingual jailbreak. In contrast, the defensive side has been relatively less explored. This paper proposes a lightweight yet practical defense called SELFDEFEND, which can defend against all existing jailbreak attacks with minimal delay for jailbreak prompts and negligible delay for normal user prompts. Our key insight is that regardless of the kind of jailbreak strategies employed, they eventually need to include a harmful prompt (e.g., "how to make a bomb") in the prompt sent to LLMs, and we found that existing LLMs can effectively recognize such harmful prompts that violate their safety policies. Based on this insight, we design a shadow stack that concurrently checks whether a harmful prompt exists in the user prompt and triggers a checkpoint in the normal stack once a token of "No" or a harmful prompt is output. The latter could also generate an explainable LLM response to adversarial prompts. We demonstrate our idea of SELFDEFEND works in various jailbreak scenarios through manual analysis in GPT-3.5/4. We also list three future directions to further enhance SELFDEFEND.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have notably positioned them as capable tools for addressing complex optimization challenges. Despite this recognition, a predominant limitation of existing LLM-based optimization methods is their struggle to capture the relationships among decision variables when relying exclusively on numerical text prompts, especially in high-dimensional problems. Keeping this in mind, we first propose to enhance the optimization performance using multimodal LLM capable of processing both textual and visual prompts for deeper insights of the processed optimization problem. This integration allows for a more comprehensive understanding of optimization problems, akin to human cognitive processes. We have developed a multimodal LLM-based optimization framework that simulates human problem-solving workflows, thereby offering a more nuanced and effective analysis. The efficacy of this method is evaluated through extensive empirical studies focused on a well-known combinatorial optimization problem, i.e., capacitated vehicle routing problem. The results are compared against those obtained from the LLM-based optimization algorithms that rely solely on textual prompts, demonstrating the significant advantages of our multimodal approach.

In recent years,the entire field of Natural Language Processing (NLP) has enjoyed amazing novel results achieving almost human-like performance on a variety of tasks. Legal NLP domain has also been part of this process, as it has seen an impressive growth. However, general-purpose models are not readily applicable for legal domain. Due to the nature of the domain (e.g. specialized vocabulary, long documents) specific models and methods are often needed for Legal NLP. In this work we investigate both specialized and general models for predicting the final ruling of a legal case, task known as Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP). We particularly focus on methods to extend to sequence length of Transformer-based models to better understand the long documents present in legal corpora. Extensive experiments on 4 LJP datasets in Romanian, originating from 2 sources with significantly different sizes and document lengths, show that specialized models and handling long texts are critical for a good performance.

This book aims to provide a working introduction to the emerging fusion of modern statistical inference - aka machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) - and causal inference methods. The book is aimed at upper level undergraduates and master's-level students as well as doctoral students focusing on applied empirical research. A sufficient background for the core material is one semester of introductory econometrics and one semester of machine learning. We hope the book is also useful to empirical researchers looking to apply modern methods in their work. The book provides an overview of key ideas in both predictive inference and causal inference and shows how predictive tools are key ingredients to answering many causal questions.