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Predicting Empirical AI Research Outcomes with Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many promising-looking ideas in AI research fail to deliver, but their validation takes substantial human labor and compute. Predicting an idea's chance of success is thus crucial for accelerating empirical AI research, a skill that even expert researchers can only acquire through substantial experience. We build the first benchmark for this task and compare LMs with human experts. Concretely, given two research ideas (e.g., two jailbreaking methods), we aim to predict which will perform better on a set of benchmarks. We scrape ideas and experimental results from conference papers, yielding 1,585 human-verified idea pairs published after our base model's cut-off date for testing, and 6,000 pairs for training. We then develop a system that combines a fine-tuned GPT-4.1 with a paper retrieval agent, and we recruit 25 human experts to compare with. In the NLP domain, our system beats human experts by a large margin (64.4% v.s. 48.9%). On the full test set, our system achieves 77% accuracy, while off-the-shelf frontier LMs like o3 perform no better than random guessing, even with the same retrieval augmentation. We verify that our system does not exploit superficial features like idea complexity through extensive human-written and LM-designed robustness tests. Finally, we evaluate our system on unpublished novel ideas, including ideas generated by an AI ideation agent. Our system achieves 63.6% accuracy, demonstrating its potential as a reward model for improving idea generation models. Altogether, our results outline a promising new direction for LMs to accelerate empirical AI research.


ORAN-GUIDE: RAG-Driven Prompt Learning for LLM-Augmented Reinforcement Learning in O-RAN Network Slicing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Advanced wireless networks must support highly dynamic and heterogeneous service demands. Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) architecture enables this flexibility by adopting modular, disaggregated components, such as the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC), Centralized Unit (CU), and Distributed Unit (DU), that can support intelligent control via machine learning (ML). While deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is a powerful tool for managing dynamic resource allocation and slicing, it often struggles to process raw, unstructured input like RF features, QoS metrics, and traffic trends. These limitations hinder policy generalization and decision efficiency in partially observable and evolving environments. T o address this, we propose ORAN-GUIDE, a dual-LLM framework that enhances multi-agent RL (MARL) with task-relevant, semantically enriched state representations. The architecture employs a domain-specific language model, ORANSight, pretrained on O-RAN control and configuration data, to generate structured, context-aware prompts. These prompts are fused with learnable tokens and passed to a frozen GPT -based encoder that outputs high-level semantic representations for DRL agents. This design adopts a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) style pipeline tailored for technical decision-making in wireless systems. Experimental results show that ORAN-GUIDE improves sample efficiency, policy convergence, and performance generalization over standard MARL and single-LLM baselines. ETWORK slicing is a critical technology for enabling flexible and intelligent radio access networks (RAN) in next-generation wireless networks, as it allows efficient support for highly dynamic and heterogeneous service demands such as enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), Ultra-Reliable Low-Latency Communications (URLLC), and massive Machine-Type Communications (mMTC) [1].


An evaluation of LLMs for generating movie reviews: GPT-4o, Gemini-2.0 and DeepSeek-V3

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have been prominent in various tasks, including text generation and summarisation. The applicability of LLMs to the generation of product reviews is gaining momentum, paving the way for the generation of movie reviews. In this study, we propose a framework that generates movie reviews using three LLMs (GPT-4o, DeepSeek-V3, and Gemini-2.0), and evaluate their performance by comparing the generated outputs with IMDb user reviews. We use movie subtitles and screenplays as input to the LLMs and investigate how they affect the quality of reviews generated. We review the LLM-based movie reviews in terms of vocabulary, sentiment polarity, similarity, and thematic consistency in comparison to IMDB user reviews. The results demonstrate that LLMs are capable of generating syntactically fluent and structurally complete movie reviews. Nevertheless, there is still a noticeable gap in emotional richness and stylistic coherence between LLM-generated and IMDb reviews, suggesting that further refinement is needed to improve the overall quality of movie review generation. We provided a survey-based analysis where participants were told to distinguish between LLM and IMDb user reviews. The results show that LLM-generated reviews are difficult to distinguish from IMDB user reviews. We found that DeepSeek-V3 produced the most balanced reviews, closely matching IMDb reviews. GPT-4o overemphasised positive emotions, while Gemini-2.0 captured negative emotions better but showed excessive emotional intensity.


Structure-Aware Fill-in-the-Middle Pretraining for Code

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fill-in-the-Middle (FIM) is a common pretraining method for code LLMs, where models complete code segments given surrounding context. However, existing LLMs treat code as plain text and mask random character spans. We propose and evaluate AST-FIM, a pretraining strategy that leverages Abstract Syntax Trees (ASTs) to mask complete syntactic structures at scale, ensuring coherent training examples better aligned with universal code structures and common code editing patterns such as blocks, expressions, or functions. To evaluate real-world fill-in-the-middle (FIM) programming tasks, we introduce Real-FIM-Eval, a benchmark derived from 30,000+ GitHub commits across 12 languages. On infilling tasks, experiments on 1B and 8B parameter models show that AST-FIM is particularly beneficial for real-world code editing as it outperforms standard random-character FIM by up to 5 pts on standard FIM benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/gonglinyuan/ast_fim.


The World As Large Language Models See It: Exploring the reliability of LLMs in representing geographical features

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, questions about their trustworthiness in delivering factual information have become increasingly important. This concern also applies to their ability to accurately represent the geographic world. With recent advancements in this field, it is relevant to consider whether and to what extent LLMs' representations of the geographical world can be trusted. This study evaluates the performance of GPT-4o and Gemini 2.0 Flash in three key geospatial tasks: geocoding, elevation estimation, and reverse geocoding. In the geocoding task, both models exhibited systematic and random errors in estimating the coordinates of St. Anne's Column in Innsbruck, Austria, with GPT-4o showing greater deviations and Gemini 2.0 Flash demonstrating more precision but a significant systematic offset. For elevation estimation, both models tended to underestimate elevations across Austria, though they captured overall topographical trends, and Gemini 2.0 Flash performed better in eastern regions. The reverse geocoding task, which involved identifying Austrian federal states from coordinates, revealed that Gemini 2.0 Flash outperformed GPT-4o in overall accuracy and F1-scores, demonstrating better consistency across regions. Despite these findings, neither model achieved an accurate reconstruction of Austria's federal states, highlighting persistent misclassifications. The study concludes that while LLMs can approximate geographic information, their accuracy and reliability are inconsistent, underscoring the need for fine-tuning with geographical information to enhance their utility in GIScience and Geoinformatics.


MOFGPT: Generative Design of Metal-Organic Frameworks using Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The discovery of Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs) with application-specific properties remains a central challenge in materials chemistry, owing to the immense size and complexity of their structural design space. Conventional computational screening techniques such as molecular simulations and density functional theory (DFT), while accurate, are computationally prohibitive at scale. Machine learning offers an exciting alternative by leveraging data-driven approaches to accelerate materials discovery. The complexity of MOFs, with their extended periodic structures and diverse topologies, creates both opportunities and challenges for generative modeling approaches. To address these challenges, we present a reinforcement learning-enhanced, transformer-based framework for the de novo design of MOFs. Central to our approach is MOFid, a chemically-informed string representation encoding both connectivity and topology, enabling scalable generative modeling. Our pipeline comprises three components: (1) a generative GPT model trained on MOFid sequences, (2) MOFormer, a transformer-based property predictor, and (3) a reinforcement learning (RL) module that optimizes generated candidates via property-guided reward functions. By integrating property feedback into sequence generation, our method drives the model toward synthesizable, topologically valid MOFs with desired functional attributes. This work demonstrates the potential of large language models, when coupled with reinforcement learning, to accelerate inverse design in reticular chemistry and unlock new frontiers in computational MOF discovery.


When GPT Spills the Tea: Comprehensive Assessment of Knowledge File Leakage in GPTs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge files have been widely used in large language model (LLM) agents, such as GPTs, to improve response quality. However, concerns about the potential leakage of knowledge files have grown significantly. Existing studies demonstrate that adversarial prompts can induce GPTs to leak knowledge file content. Yet, it remains uncertain whether additional leakage vectors exist, particularly given the complex data flows across clients, servers, and databases in GPTs. In this paper, we present a comprehensive risk assessment of knowledge file leakage, leveraging a novel workflow inspired by Data Security Posture Management (DSPM). Through the analysis of 651,022 GPT metadata, 11,820 flows, and 1,466 responses, we identify five leakage vectors: metadata, GPT initialization, retrieval, sandboxed execution environments, and prompts. These vectors enable adversaries to extract sensitive knowledge file data such as titles, content, types, and sizes. Notably, the activation of the built-in tool Code Interpreter leads to a privilege escalation vulnerability, enabling adversaries to directly download original knowledge files with a 95.95% success rate. Further analysis reveals that 28.80% of leaked files are copyrighted, including digital copies from major publishers and internal materials from a listed company. In the end, we provide actionable solutions for GPT builders and platform providers to secure the GPT data supply chain.


Control-R: Towards controllable test-time scaling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper target in addressing the challenges of underthinking and overthinking in long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning for Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) by introducing Reasoning Control Fields (RCF)--a novel test-time approach that injects structured control signals to guide reasoning from a tree search perspective. RCF enables models to adjust reasoning effort according to given control conditions when solving complex tasks. Additionally, we present the Control-R-4K dataset, which consists of challenging problems annotated with detailed reasoning processes and corresponding control fields. To further enhance reasoning control, we propose a Conditional Distillation Finetuning (CDF) method, which trains model--particularly Control-R-32B--to effectively adjust reasoning effort during test time. Experimental results on benchmarks such as AIME2024 and MATH500 demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance at the 32B scale while enabling a controllable Long CoT reasoning process (L-CoT). Overall, this work introduces an effective paradigm for controllable test-time scaling reasoning.


Privacy Amplification in Differentially Private Zeroth-Order Optimization with Hidden States

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Zeroth-order optimization has emerged as a promising approach for fine-tuning large language models on domain-specific data, particularly under differential privacy (DP) and memory constraints. While first-order methods have been extensively studied from a privacy perspective, the privacy analysis and algorithmic design for zeroth-order methods remain significantly underexplored. A critical open question concerns hidden-state DP analysis: although convergent privacy bounds are known for first-order methods, it has remained unclear whether similar guarantees can be established for zeroth-order methods. In this work, we provide an affirmative answer by proving a convergent DP bound for zeroth-order optimization. Our analysis generalizes the celebrated privacy amplification-by-iteration framework to the setting of smooth loss functions in zeroth-order optimization. Furthermore, it induces better DP zeroth-order algorithmic designs that are previously unknown to the literature.


Supporting architecture evaluation for ATAM scenarios with LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Architecture evaluation methods have long been used to evaluate software designs. Several evaluation methods have been proposed and used to analyze tradeoffs between different quality attributes. Having competing qualities leads to conflicts for selecting which quality-attribute scenarios are the most suitable ones that an architecture should tackle and for prioritizing the scenarios required by the stakeholders. In this context, architecture evaluation is carried out manually, often involving long brainstorming sessions to decide which are the most adequate quality scenarios. To reduce this effort and make the assessment and selection of scenarios more efficient, we suggest the usage of LLMs to partially automate evaluation activities. As a first step to validate this hypothesis, this work studies MS Copilot as an LLM tool to analyze quality scenarios suggested by students in a software architecture course and compares the students' results with the assessment provided by the LLM. Our initial study reveals that the LLM produces in most cases better and more accurate results regarding the risks, sensitivity points and tradeoff analysis of the quality scenarios. Overall, the use of generative AI has the potential to partially automate and support the architecture evaluation tasks, improving the human decision-making process.